PerilScope Strategic Horizons: AI, Blockchain, and the Militarization of Europe in a 3°C World

The European Commission’s 2021 vision for artificial intelligence and blockchain as enablers of a green and digital economy was conceived in a vastly different world—one where climate deterioration was a distant policy concern rather than an immediate existential crisis. Today, as we assess this framework through the 3°C World Strategic Risk Policy? (3°CWSRP?) lens, it becomes clear that its underlying assumptions have collapsed under the weight of geopolitical, economic, and environmental upheaval.

Europe is no longer merely navigating a digital transition; it is hurtling toward a hard-edged reality of survival, systemic adaptation, and militarization in an increasingly unstable world. The events of the past week—the deepening US-Ukraine rift, Strammer’s proposal for a Western European military coalition that excludes Bulgaria, Hungary, Slovakia, and the Baltics, Zelensky’s crisis meetings in Brussels, the US halting weapons deliveries to Ukraine, and Ursula von der Leyen’s announcement of a dramatic military spending surge—have fundamentally redefined the trajectory of European security and economic policy.

The once-clear distinction between technological innovation for civilian progress and defense imperatives is disappearing. AI and blockchain, originally heralded as tools for sustainability and digital empowerment, are rapidly being reoriented toward security, military resilience, and geopolitical competition. This shift is not just a response to immediate security threats—it is a structural transformation, driven by the unavoidable pressures of a world destabilized by accelerating climate stress, resource conflicts, and systemic economic volatility.

A Fractured Europe in a 3°C World: The End of Strategic Cohesion

The fracturing of NATO and the European Union along East-West lines is now more than just a possibility—it is a trajectory. Strammer’s military coalition proposal, which deliberately excludes Bulgaria, Hungary, Slovakia, and the Baltics, signals the emergence of a two-tier European security order, one dominated by Western European powers consolidating military-industrial capabilities while leaving Eastern and Southeastern Europe in a precarious limbo.

This exclusion is not just a political maneuver—it is a strategic signal that Western Europe intends to redefine NATO from within, prioritizing regional security alliances over the traditional Atlanticist structure. For Bulgaria, Hungary, Slovakia, and the Baltics, this raises alarming security risks:

1. Isolation from critical defense funding and AI-driven military infrastructure

? With military investments now concentrating in Western European-led defense programs, Eastern and Southeastern Europe risk being economically and technologically sidelined, limiting their access to next-generation military AI, cyber defense, and blockchain-secured military logistics.

2. Incentivizing alternative security alignments

? As NATO’s cohesion weakens, individual nations may seek alternative defense agreements, potentially deepening dependence on bilateral US security pacts or even exploring new alliances outside the EU framework.

3. Strategic destabilization amid climate-driven migration and resource scarcity

? A divided Europe in a 3°C world is a Europe exposed to cascading crises—energy shortages, mass displacement from climate-ravaged regions, and economic breakdown in agricultural and industrial supply chains. Without a unified resilience strategy, Eastern Europe faces greater systemic risks, particularly as the Mediterranean climate crisis intensifies, driving migration flows northward into regions already struggling with political marginalization.

The 3°C World trajectory demands an integrated resilience strategy, yet Europe is moving in the opposite direction—toward fragmentation and strategic insularity.

AI and Blockchain: From Digital Sovereignty to Military Dominance

The European Commission’s 2021 blueprint framed AI and blockchain as the foundation of a green, inclusive digital economy. But in the current geopolitical and environmental context, these technologies are being pulled into a different paradigm—one of digital militarization, cyber sovereignty, and conflict-driven economic restructuring.

AI: The Algorithmic Battlefield

AI’s role in military strategy is expanding exponentially. Rather than enhancing economic productivity, AI is now being rapidly integrated into:

? Autonomous warfare systems, accelerating the deployment of AI-driven combat drones and battlefield analytics.

? Cyber defense and AI-driven misinformation warfare, as states weaponize AI against adversarial information ecosystems.

? Predictive analytics for geopolitical risk, replacing human intelligence assessments with algorithmic decision-making—introducing new risks of systemic AI failure and miscalculation in crisis scenarios.

The 3°C World context further exacerbates these risks, as climate-induced instability increases the reliance on AI to manage failing supply chains, anticipate mass displacement patterns, and secure volatile energy infrastructures. Yet, AI’s probabilistic risk models are not designed for the chaotic, nonlinear shocks of climate collapse—a fundamental blind spot in current military AI strategies.

Blockchain: From Financial Transparency to Military Cryptography

Blockchain, once positioned as a tool for financial and supply chain transparency, is now being absorbed into military-industrial applications:

? Encrypted military logistics, securing battlefield communications and supply chain resilience amid geopolitical and climate disruptions.

? Decentralized energy security frameworks, ensuring strategic autonomy over energy resources as fossil fuel volatility escalates in a 3°C world.

? Cryptographic sovereignty initiatives, insulating European defense systems from US and Chinese digital infrastructure dominance.

This militarization of blockchain represents a fundamental shift away from its original role as a tool of decentralized economic empowerment. The new reality is one where blockchain becomes an instrument of control, ensuring the securitization of data, assets, and strategic supply lines in a world of escalating systemic shocks.

The Strategic Reckoning: AI, Blockchain, and the 3°C World Imperative

The convergence of climate crisis, geopolitical fragmentation, and military AI dominance is not an abstraction—it is already reshaping Europe’s technological and economic trajectory.

Europe now faces a strategic reckoning:

1. A divided EU and NATO will struggle to manage climate-driven instability

? The West-East military split will undermine coordinated responses to climate migration crises, resource conflicts, and economic shocks.

2. AI-driven security strategies will face catastrophic failure risks in nonlinear climate crises

? AI’s predictive models are fundamentally flawed in a 3°C world, where feedback loops, extreme weather events, and cascading system failures exceed algorithmic assumptions.

3. The digital economy will be reshaped by defense imperatives, eroding civilian AI and blockchain innovation

? Funds once allocated for sustainability and economic development are now being redirected toward AI-driven warfare and blockchain-secured defense logistics.

This is the strategic paradox of the 3°C World—where AI and blockchain, once seen as forces of digital liberation, are becoming tools of systemic containment, control, and geopolitical competition.

The Hard Reset for Europe’s Technological Future

The European Commission’s 2021 AI and blockchain strategy has been overtaken by reality. What was once a vision of economic transformation is now a battlefield of competing security imperatives, fractured alliances, and military-driven technological consolidation.

AI and blockchain are no longer just tools for digital progress—they are now frontline assets in the struggle for strategic survival in a 3°C world.

Europe must now decide:

? Will it allow AI and blockchain to be monopolized by military-industrial interests, abandoning their potential as instruments of economic resilience?

? Or will it forge a new framework, one that integrates technological adaptation with the unpredictable dynamics of climate collapse and geopolitical instability?

The era of AI and blockchain as purely economic tools is over. In the 3°C world, their role will be defined not by progress, but by power.