Perception of Hazard Risk Beats Actual Risk
University of North Texas Center for Public Management
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Local government leaders’ perceptions of climate hazards affect their implementation of resilience policies more than the actual hazard risk, according to a new study in the journal Land. Local public managers’ attitudes are important because they oversee land use policy and practice, an issue critical to disaster resilience and climate adaptation.
Co-authored by Simon A. Andrew, PhD , chair of the UNT Department of Public Administration , the article analyzes data from a 2018 Florida League of Cities survey of disaster resilience officials in coastal communities. The survey asked public managers about their concerns related to inland riverine flooding, rising sea levels, expanded storm surge zones, and wind damage. Sixty-two cities completed the survey.
Researchers compared the cities’ responses to estimates of risk from federal agencies and state requirements to address those risks in local comprehensive plans. Among other observations, the authors found that few cities had fully developed and implemented required hazard plans.
They also found that managers’ attitudes about specific risks strongly influenced their resilience planning activities related to that risk. “…managers’ concern has greater influence on policy implementation than objective risk,” they wrote.
One implication of the study is that professional preparation for public managers may need to change. Some public managers have degrees in urban planning, an educational path that often includes discussions about climate resilience, infrastructure and hazards. But other managers, who earned degrees in public administration, may not have been systematically exposed to those topics. To improve disaster resilience planning, the authors suggest, “…reform of public administration curricula might be warranted.”
The article is: Kim, S., Andrew, S., Ramirez de la Cruz, E., Kim, W-J & Feiock, R.C. (2024). Impacts of Local Government Perceptions of Disaster Risks on Land Resilience Planning Implementation. Land, 13, 10-85.