The people of Venezuela have done their part: What’s next?

When conducting a political analysis, it is often challenging to separate emotions from reason. For this very reason, I always hoped to be wrong when I offered a grim perspective on Venezuela in an article a few weeks ago. I indicated a high probability of fraud and asserted that Maduro would not accept the results of the sovereign will of the Venezuelan people. That article sparked criticism for its seemingly pessimistic tone; however, I rarely wanted so much to be wrong as in this instance.

All independent monitoring and parallel counts, including those from international electoral observers, agree that Edmundo González’s victory was overwhelming. The margin is at least 30%, the largest electoral margin recorded so far in Venezuela. As we anticipated, Nicolás Maduro’s regime has perpetrated a blatant fraud. However, they will not be able to hide Edmundo González’s victory. The records confirm it since, amid the country’s institutional disaster, the Venezuelan electoral system still retains vestiges of the democratic era, including the recording of voting records at each polling station.

The voting machines issue a paper receipt, which are the records with the results, and the law stipulates that party witnesses keep a copy from each of the 30,026 polling stations. Although the National Electoral Council announced a victory for Nicolás Maduro with 51% of the votes, opposition data, based on their own copies of the records, indicate that Edmundo González won the election with 70%.

With this fraud, Nicolás Maduro has destroyed the remaining vestiges of institutional integrity in the electoral system. As of this writing, the Campaign Command reported having processed more than 40% of the records. Once this number increases and they have processed them, they will make an announcement to the international community, as well as to the Carter Center and the UN Panel, demonstrating the magnitude of the electoral fraud.

Maduro’s regime seems to be following the maxim of Tomás Borge regarding the Sandinista Front in Nicaragua: “anything can happen, but the highest cost is losing the elections.” In other words, dictatorships calculate that the cost of relinquishing power is much higher than the consequences of fraud. This explains the radical actions observed recently. Following allegations of a supposed hacking of the results transmission, today’s scheduled telecommunications audit is essential, but the CNE suspended it, showing that the hacking was an excuse to block the electronic transmission of a significant portion of the records. The CNE has also not provided the results database nor published the results by polling station. Additionally, the planned citizen verification audit has been suspended.

The international community must respond decisively and not limit itself to statements of indignation. Otherwise, the desperation of the Venezuelan people will translate into continued mass exodus and the further radicalization of Maduro’s regime, heading in a direction similar to that of Nicaragua.

Politically, a challenging phase begins. There is a strong willingness among the citizens to stay in the streets to defend their vote, but those of us who have experienced similar frauds in the past know that street pressure is fundamental but not sufficient. Therefore, the opposition’s goal will be to find national and international interlocutors to urge the government to come to its senses and thus initiate negotiations for the recognition of genuine results and a subsequent transition. Meanwhile, the government will try to demoralize the opposition, either by demobilizing it over time or by exacerbating discontent to provoke acts of violence that justify the narrative that the opposition is violent and “rejects” the results.

I have had the pleasure of speaking with several members of Edmundo’s campaign team, and it was clear that this fraud scenario was always anticipated. This reflects well on the opposition, which, under the leadership of María Corina Machado, is prepared to engage in a long struggle to defend the results. The strategy for this phase seems to involve a reaction from the international community and some form of response from the military. They also hope that pressure will not only come from the United States and Europe but also from actors like Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva. We will have to see if these factors have any impact.

Personally, I am not very optimistic. I believe Maduro has the full support of the military, but interestingly, my Venezuelan friends insist that there are sectors of the armed forces that will not remain silent in the face of this outcome. It seems very risky to me that Maduro would publicly announce these results without first ensuring full military backing.

The people of Venezuela have done their part heroically and resolutely, turning out to vote massively despite the adversities. Under extremely difficult circumstances, they managed to organize with 200,000 volunteers. Now, it is up to the international community to support them so that this fraud does not prevail. It is time to raise voices and apply pressure. The courage of the Venezuelan people cannot be in vain; the world must stand with them in this struggle and ensure their voices are heard and respected.