Pensions Trump Brexit: the End of Globalism and the Greatest De-Risking
See pensionstrumpbrexit.com for my 8-week journey, inspired by the US President (though not I expect in the way he intended), from a borderline Remain supporter to a Brexit-er via consideration of the issues from a pensions risk manager perspective. Key conclusions:
A Remain vote is a vote for: poorer governance with a large unknown element, continuing economic integration, stronger deflationary forces, increasing inequality, permanently (or as good as) low long term interest rates and consequent insolvent pension schemes.
A Brexit vote is a vote for: a known improvement in governance, a positive and necessary reform message for the European Union and the prevailing globalisation economic ethos, greater freedom to tackle inequality, reduced long term deflationary pressures, higher long term interest rates and possibly more solvent pension schemes.
Overall, I remain open to convincing right up until the referendum, but am likely to vote Brexit, a decision based on my beliefs on the economic risks and outcomes for societies and pension funds ahead under either scenario. Thankfully for me, backing those views also comes as a package with improved governance, the most pressing long term issue.
The long term future is uncertain. In these dangerous times, our priority is to tool up with the right decision-making apparatus for the future, focus like good pensions folk do on the long term, and execute the Great Pensions De-risking.
Project Fear has in my case been wholly counter-productive. I cover the main Brexit/Remain issues in the debate briefly including: immigration, trade, security, foreign inward investment, whether Brexit will bring down the UK government or split the United Kingdom.
Retired
8 年It is interesting that all the so called Big Hitters like the IMF, OECD and others who said years ago that the UK not joining the Euro would be an economic disaster, how did that work out then, are at it again with Brexit would be the death knell for the UK, Not one of them and the other Pro UK Stay parties has included any reference that the EU has to reform. This article from The Spectator is concise and informative. https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3647690/Set-Britain-free-Unsure-vote-brilliantly-incisive-verdict-Spectator-nation-s-foremost-political-magazine-help.html
Strategy Director at DROGA5 UK LIMITED
8 年Following the death of Jo Cox we know no that the true project fear is the anti-immigration rhetoric of Farage, Britain First, Gove and Johnson. Can't believe you would want to encourage a Britain where the far right think it is okay to murder a left wing pro-immigration MP. Whatever the economic analysis you cannot be handing power to those views and ideals. I hope you rethink your stance.
Regulatory Consultant
8 年Wow. It's going to take me a while to read this. I've seen a few posts recently (from people tending either way) which set out their thought processes. This sort of thing is so much better than the main (fairly linear) debate; The full document for this one looks like something else! By contrast, I saw a post from Nicola Horlick earlier that simply announced Brexit would be a disaster and had to be stopped but gave no reasoning(!)
OK Dave - this is going to take some time and it's already late on Sunday. So I will kick off now and get back on the rest. Section 1 – Globalisation has nothing to do with the UK remaining or leaving the EU. All those deflationary pressures are “global”. They will still be there should the UK leave. Inflation is not a lubricant. Most central banks have spent decades trying to control it. While I consider “inequality” in this context to be a bad thing, the only support for it being a bad thing economically is Marginal Utility Theory. I buy that, but many don’t. There is no evidence that globalisation causes inequality, and more than it increase cancer or increases solar power. These things happened at the same time, but cause and effect are not the same as co-incidental. Now, Britain could leave and put up trade barriers, but I don’t think the Leave campaign is advocating that. That might stoke inflation but would truly fnck the economy.
Lead Portfolio Manager - Goldman Sachs Asset Management
8 年Julian Fellowes, an unelected member of the House of Lords, will vote Brexit because, he said, he wants to vote for democracy and against the unelected bureaucrats in Brussels... Go figure...