Pennsylvania Swinging Toward Trump; Mixed Numbers in Missouri; New Hampshire Coming into Play?

Providing you with a recap of this week’s top five news items and resources straight from our experts.?

Pennsylvania?Swinging Toward Trump?

A total of six current polls from five different Keystone State pollsters all find former President Donald Trump leading Vice President Kamala Harris in Pennsylvania ballot test results.? The range is relatively wide.? ?

The Echelon Insights survey (10/27-30; 600 PA likely voters; live interview & text) posts Mr. Trump to a 51-46% count on the multi-candidate ballot.? The poll swinging the most from that result comes from Fox News (10/24-28; 1,057 PA likely voters; live interview & online) and suggests the two candidates are tied with 48% apiece.? ?

Viewed together, the two are a good example of how different pollsters can arrive at significantly different results even when testing the same race during the same relative time frame.?? With so many polls showing many different outcomes regarding the various campaigns, it is now time to sit back and let the actual votes determine the final result.?

Mixed Numbers in Missouri?

In a race that is possibly flirting with the competitive designation, a GQR tracking survey conducted for the Lucas Kunce (D) campaign (10/23-26; 600 MO likely voters) sees their client trailing Sen. Josh Hawley (R) by only a 49-46% margin. Previous full polls, however, see the Senator holding low double digit leads.?

Mr. Kunce has a strong fundraising operation that generated over $20 million in campaign receipts through the end of September, just $6 million behind Sen. Hawley. Another $4 million comes from outside sources, 90% of which has gone to either promote Sen. Hawley or attack Mr. Kunce.?

Missouri’s recent voting history suggests that Sen. Hawley should win a comfortable victory, likely landing in the mid-50s with Mr. Kunce in the lower 40s.?

New Hampshire Coming into Play???

A new state may be worth watching on election night as a pair of polls find a closing of the race in New England’s Granite State. Late last week, Emerson College released their latest New Hampshire poll (for WHDH-Channel 7; 10/21-22; 915 NH likely voters; multiple sampling techniques) and the results saw former President Donald Trump cutting Vice President Kamala Harris’ lead to 50-47%, a very strong improvement from The Dartmouth Poll’s (10/5-18; 2,211 NH registered voters; online) result that found Ms. Harris holding a 21 point advantage.?

Following the Emerson release, Praecones Analytica, polling for the NH Journal (10/24-26; 622 NH registered voters) saw the two candidates breaking even. New Hampshire does not have early voting, so the campaign tightening in its final week suggests an upset is possible since the Trump campaign appears to be peaking in the state at precisely the right time.?

Michigan Mirror Image Polling ??

Two surveys were released of the Michigan electorate that ended on the same day and produced the same 49-47% ballot test conclusion, except each found a different candidate reaching the 49% figure.? Mitchell Research and Communications, polling for the Michigan News Source (10/28-29; sample size undisclosed) sees former Congressman Mike Rogers (R) with the slight lead, while AtlasIntel (10-25-29; 983 MI likely voters) arrived at the opposite conclusion.? The latter finds Rep. Elissa Slotkin (D-Lansing) clinging to the two-point edge.?

This is an excellent example of two professional pollsters testing the same electorate at the same time and arriving at the opposite conclusion.? This makes us remember that polls give us a broad snapshot within a stated margin of error at the time a survey is conducted and reminds us that surveys are meant to show trends over a long period as opposed to who might be leading a campaign at a given time. ?

Arizona Closer Than Expected? ?

Earlier this week, we covered a new poll regarding the Arizona Senate race that posted former news anchor Kari Lake (R) running slightly ahead of Rep. Ruben Gallego (D-Phoenix) in the open US Senate race.? The poll, which forecast Ms. Lake holding a one point edge, came from the Data Orbital firm over the October 26-28 period.? ?

Now, we see another survey arriving at the same conclusion.?? AtlasIntel released their latest Arizona poll (10/30-31; 1,005 AZ likely voters) and the conclusion was identical to that of the previous Data Orbital survey, that being Ms. Lake holding a small one point lead.?

Two other pollsters were also in the field during the similar period.? Another AtlasIntel survey was conducted during the 10/25-29 period, and they saw the opposite result: Rep. Gallego leading by the same one point margin.? A fourth poll was also introduced (Noble Predictive Insights; 10/28-30; 775 AZ likely voters) and this ballot test returned Rep. Gallego to a four point edge.? ?

While all the polls before October gave Mr. Gallego substantial leads, there is now significant data showing a closing of the race.? Though Rep. Gallego is still the likely winner, this race may now join a couple of the Arizona House races in political overtime.?

A friendly reminder: We've done our research, but you should, too! Check reliable sources for the most up to date information.?

Learn more about BIPAC at bipac.org .?

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