Pennsylvania Race Getting Tighter; Massachusetts Primary Results; Early Voting Ballots Mailed This Week

Providing you with a recap of this week’s top five news items and resources straight from our experts.?

Pennsylvania Race Getting Tighter?

Sen. Bob Casey, Jr. (D-PA) has clearly been leading his race for re-election, but the most recent polls find the contest becoming much closer, just as former President Trump has been taking a small lead in most of these same Pennsylvania polls.?

After posting consistent double-digit leads through July and early August, the month’s mid to latter periods has yielded different results. Since mid-August, ten polls have been released of this Senate race, and Sen. Casey’s mean average margin has dropped to 4.5 points. In July, his advantage through 11 released polls was almost nine percentage points. While the Trump numbers have improved in recent PA polling, so has Republican Senate challenger David McCormick’s standing.?

Massachusetts Primary Results ?

Attorney and Marine Corps veteran John Deaton easily defeated two other Republican candidates and will now face Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D) in the general election. Obviously, Sen. Warren will be considered a prohibitive favorite in this most Democratic of states.?

In the House, Rep. Richard Neal (D-Springfield) faces only Independent candidates in November. Rep. Stephen Lynch (D-South Boston) will again see opposition from 2022 GOP nominee Rob Burke in this year’s general election. Two years ago, Rep. Lynch was re-elected with 70% of the vote, and we can count on a similar result in November.?

Rep. Bill Keating’s (D-Bourne) general election opponent is nurse Dan Sullivan (R), who was unopposed Tuesday night for his party’s nomination. As is the case for Rep. Lynch, Rep. Keating is considered a prohibitive favorite for re-election. The other six members of the Massachusetts US House delegation, all Democrats, are all unopposed in the general election.?

Early Voting Ballots Mailed This Week?

The time for states to begin sending absentee ballots to voters is fast approaching. The first to begin mailing ballots is North Carolina, and their deadline for posting is this Friday, September 6th. Three states will open early voting polling places on the 20th of this month: Minnesota, South Dakota, and Virginia. A fourth, Illinois, will follow suit six days later.?

All but three states, Alabama, Mississippi, and New Hampshire, have some form of early voting. Clearly early voting changes campaign strategies, and certainly the political calendar. Instead of election day, we now have election month. Charting early voting has become a valuable way of monitoring voter intensity, which often is a victory momentum indicator.?

Surprising New Minnesota Poll?

Sen. Amy Klobuchar (D) has always been regarded as a lock for re-election, and while the newly released Redfield & Wilton survey (8/25-28; 426 MN likely voters) does not suggest any result other than the Senator’s victory, the poll results reveal a closer than expected developing campaign. The R&W ballot test numbers find Sen. Klobuchar leading former NBA basketball player Royce White (R) by only a 51-44% margin.?

This poll is likely an anomaly large due to the small sample size. In contrast, Survey USA was in the field during a similar period (8/27-29; 635 MN likely voters; online) and found a much different ballot test result with the Senator leading Mr. White, 50-36%.?

AG Morrisey On Way to Clinching Governor’s Race in West Virginia ?

The same Research America survey that tested the West Virginia Senate race also asked an open gubernatorial question. In this race, the polling analysis suggests that Attorney General Pat Morrisey (R) holds a double-digit lead of 49-35% against Huntington Mayor Steve Williams (D). While closer than the Senate race, this poll gives the full indication that Mr. Morrisey will easily hold the Governor’s position for the GOP.?

A friendly reminder: We've done our research, but you should, too! Check reliable sources for the most up to date information.?

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