Pelosi drug bill will save money, but at what long-term cost?
Dana P Goldman
Founding Director, USC Schaeffer Institute | University Professor of Public Policy, Pharmacy, and Economics | LinkedIn Top Voice
CBO gave House Democrats an early Halloween treat in the form of a favorable score of H.R. 3. They estimated it would save Medicare $345 billion over seven years. While there is no doubt Pelosi’s bill would reduce drug prices, the CBO missed the mark on evaluating the long-term impact of these reduced drug prices on new drug discovery and health. Below is a summary of an argument I laid out in STAT this morning.
First, on drug innovation, the CBO estimated that the Pelosi bill would only result in about a dozen fewer drugs over the next 10 years. But in part that reflects the limits of the CBO scoring window. Developing and winning approval for new drugs takes 15 years, according to Tufts. CBO only scores the next 10 years. What really matters is what happens beyond the CBO score.
And it is here that CBO misses the boat. Ultimately, what we care about is not the number of new drugs, but what impact the policy will have on population health. The CBO seems to missed this in its valuation. My colleagues and I have estimated that once controls are fully implemented, life expectancy at older ages would be reduced by about 3 percent. This may not seem like a lot, but that is similar to the effect if the U.S. “forgot” how to reopen blocked cardiac arteries after a heart attack. When it comes to drug price controls, we need to tread carefully.
Please read more at https://healthpolicy.usc.edu/article/cbo-estimate-on-pelosi-drug-bill-misses-its-long-term-impact-on-health/
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5 年Trump and Pelosi Both Cater to Private Health Insurance—Wendell Potter Former Cigna Exec https://therealnews.com/stories/trump-and-pelosi-both-cater-to-private-health-insurance-wendell-potter
Currently operating a 3kgrefrigerators truck
5 年Appearance often are deceiving.
We fix healthcare market access problems through clever pricing
5 年If only it were that easy to cut drug prices...what we need is a better way to encourage investment in products that deliver value to the system. Dana Goldman and his team have some very interesting views of how to create those incentives without penalizing biotech. I wish Congress would get the smartest people in the country in the room rather than posting bills like this one that look good on a campaign sticker but A) won't pass and B) don't really achieve the Values-based goals of improving long-term health and encouraging profit based on overall cost savings including all morbidity and mortality elements.
Sr. Medical Science Liaison at Alexion/AstraZeneca Rare Disease
5 年Enjoyed reading the summary on innovation and drug discovery! The new "low hanging fruit" seem to be getting more expensive to identify through traditional drug development pathways. How we can we create or add value by increasing effectiveness of care delivery on the technology front?? Is enough attention being given to advance the study and implementation of better digital health medicines, companion apps and software solutions? Enough support given to User Experience Design tailored to the growing, aging Medicare population?