A Peek Into the Influencer Economy

In this issue of the Peel:

• The Energy Information Agency (EIA) reported that U.S. crude stockpiles had fallen by more than expected last week.
• Opendoor Technologies and Cloudflare had a ripe day, while NextEra Energy and UBS Group AG suffered lower share prices.
• Yesterday, Forbes released their 2nd annual Top Creator List, highlighting 50 of the world’s top “creators.”

Market Snapshot

Happy Thursday, apes.

Hope you enjoyed another piece of classic American entertainment in the form of last night’s debacle. Somehow, they just seem to get better and better.

And yesterday, after about 2 pm ET, markets just looked better and better as well. For the most part, equities were higher on the day, with NYSE stocks seeing an 11 to 10 ratio of gainers to losers. Mega cap growth and energy helped out big time, with the Russell 2k leading the way.

Treasury yields bounced around a fair amount in the past few days, remaining stubbornly elevated with the 2-year hovering between 5.1% and 5.15% while the 10-year followed a similar path to cross 4.6%.

The steepening of the yield curve is finally starting (fingers crossed), but given that it’s driven by rising long-term yields, that’s not exactly what anyone expected… or wanted.

Let’s get into it.

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Banana Bits

• Durable goods orders show some anxiety among consumer spending, but plenty of strength remains in military spending!
• The UAW doesn’t seem to want to give up anytime soon.

Macro Monkey Says

Energized Oil

A sick puppy, your parents when they’re sad, and higher gas prices—3 things you absolutely hate to see.

But yesterday, only one of them reached a YTD high… and it better not have been Mom or Dad’s sadness. The one we’ll be focused on, if you don’t mind, is the latter. Prices of crude oil have breached a new high in 2023 amid falling U.S. inventories and global supply.

The Energy Information Agency (EIA) reported that U.S. crude stockpiles had fallen by more than expected last week, reaching their lowest level so far in 2023.

Crude prices spiked in the meantime, rising almost 2% by the U.S. day session’s close and approaching $95/bbl for futures contracts expiring in Nov ‘23. In fact, we can add a good few months to the “YTD” time frame as West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude hasn’t been this high since July of 2022.

As usual, the international crude benchmark—Brent—rests a few bucks higher than its snobby American counterpart. But we can’t just blame the U.S. and its lousy handling of crude oil stockpiles in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR).

"... the international crude benchmark—Brent—rests a few bucks higher than its snobby American counterpart."

For some background, the SPR was established in 1975 from the pen stroke of President Gerald Ford. Yeah, I was also surprised to learn he actually did something while in office, but you might also be surprised to know that SPR levels haven’t been this low since 1983.

Source

"... it was pretty damn objectively rude of Saudi Arabia and Russia to extend production cuts ..."

Given that the SPR is easily the most important piece of the U.S.’s crude stockpile, it makes sense why this might trigger traders. But it’s not all our own fault.

Or maybe it is; we’re not political, but it was pretty damn objectively rude of Saudi Arabia and Russia to extend production cuts through to the end of the year. The former has slashed production by 1mn barrels per day and the latter by 300k barrels per day to keep prices artificially elevated.

Oil and other energy commodities have what economics would call inelastic pricing. That means that no one really gives a sh*t about the price because, unfortunately, you’re still going to buy it.

Because crude and its derivatives are the sole energy source for key pieces of the global economy, OPEC+ member nations like those above wield their production capacity as a price control measure as if they were JPow trying to control interest rates.

Don’t expect a cheaper tank of gas or heating bill anytime soon. Conveniently, we’re now heading into the colder months here in the Northern Hemisphere, right when demand for energy products should heat up (ba dum tss).

Can’t wait to see what happens to the price.

What's Ripe

Opendoor Technologies (OPEN) ↑ 8.05% ↑

• Normally, traders and investors only care about the opinions of overpaid sell-side analysts when it comes to stock picks. But yesterday, slightly less overpaid analysts at research firm Gordon Haskett took that role for the day.
• Opendoor shares spiked thanks to how god-awful shares have been doing lately, according to Gordon Haskett analysts. Just to show how quirky and unique they are, the research firm actually lowered its price target on the shares as well.
• Basically, the thesis is that 1) shares have done so poorly that it can’t get much worse and 2) the same (might be or is) true about the U.S. housing market.

Cloudflare (NET) ↑ 6.84% ↑

• Like that movie character that becomes super hot after simply taking off their glasses, Cloudflare is all of a sudden getting a lot more looks from the cool kids.
• The internet networking and cybersecurity firm announced yesterday new partnerships with the Street’s favorite stocks of the AI age (so far): Microsoft and Nvidia.
• With Microsoft, Cloudflare's tools will be used to run across devices, networks, and cloud systems, which sounds like a lot of tech buzzwords because that’s exactly what it is. Very similarly, with Nvidia, the firm will employ GPUs and ethernet switches across its network as well.
• Even if this kind of partnership is as meaningless as those words sound, simply getting the nod from the likes of Microsoft and Nvidia would make any ticker shoot higher. Hell, they might even be able to revive Enron at this rate.

What's Rotten

NextEra Energy (NEE) ↓ 8.23% ↓

• Acting like a grown-up is hard, and NextEra Energy proved that despite the challenges, you still probably won’t get rewarded.
• The supplier of green energy production and storage chopped their growth expectations in the not-so-long term to reflect a more concentrated growth strategy, highlighting their current expectations for a reduction in dividends.
• NextEra had been eyeing dividend growth rates upwards of 12%, now cutting that target to just 6% with a range of 5-8%. Still, the real green giant plans to use the proceeds for reinvestment purposes (allegedly), which, in the long-term, might not be so bad.

UBS Group AG (UBS) ↓ 2.89% ↓

• Even after they’re gone, they can’t be stopped. Credit Suisse was so talented in its unique ability to violate rules constantly that even after becoming part of UBS, they can’t stop.
• Yesterday, news dropped that the United States Department of Justice (DOJ) was cooking up an investigation into the firm over (alleged) violations of Russian sanctions.
• Even outside the regulatory concerns, Credit Suisse certainly wasn’t in a position that other banks would be jealous of. The firm has $4.7bn explicitly stacked on its balance sheet to help out when trouble comes, but with the DOJ already down their throat, who knows how much they’ll need.

Thought Banana

The Real Money Printers

If you thought JPow was cool back in the day when he was printing gobs of money, just wait until you hear about this.

We’re talking about those who literally create it out of thin air… the creators. Through a combination of business brilliance and not getting bullied enough in high school, these individuals have mastered the art of making cash.

"... these individuals have mastered the art of making cash."

Yesterday, Forbes released their 2nd annual Top Creator List, highlighting 50 of the world’s top “creators,” or people whose job is to entertain/inform/mind-numb you on social media.

Just take a look at the top 5 and their earnings (which is not the only factor considered):

1. Jimmy Donaldson (aka MrBeast): $82mn
2. Olajide Olatunji (aka KSI): $24mn
3. Jake Paul: $34mn (his equally terrible brother was 6th with $21mn)
4. Rhett & Link: $35mn
5. Charlie D’Amilio: $23mn

Yup, and that’s all for simply making videos. Keep that in mind next time you’re in the office working overtime.

Clearly, the creator economy hasn’t disappeared like other trends that emerged out of the pandemic era. But the other thing that’s still painfully clear is that all of the earnings are held at the top.

"Keep that in mind next time you’re in the office working overtime."

I mean, just look at the top 50 list. The top 5 earners alone, including…

1. MrBeast: $82mn
2. Rhett and Link: $35mn
3. Ryan Kaji (who is 11yrs old): $35mn
4. Preston Arsement: $35mn
5. Jake Paul: $34mn

Of the $700mn earned by the top 50, the top 5 (or top 10%) raked in $221mn… which is an obscene 31.5% of the total combined with their fellow 45.

As TikTok and YouTube become more and more of the mind space and attention receivers of the U.S.’s youngest generation, news & entertainment outlets become much more decentralized.

Damnit, let’s just hope that one day, most of it stops being so dumb, okay? I don’t know if I can take another condom challenge or see Kevin James’s damn smirk one more time.

The big question: Will entertainment and news content continue to get more and more decentralized? What does this mean for creators, consumers, and society?

Banana Brain Teaser

Yesterday —

Saturday and Sunday, I am big.

Tuesday through Thursday, I am small.

Monday and Friday, I am non-existent.

What am I?

Answer

The letter "S"

Today —

What two words, when said or written, seem as though they are opposite but really mean the same thing?

Shoot us your guesses at [email protected] .

Wise Investor Says

“To earn the highest of returns that are realistically possible, you should invest with simplicity.” — John Bogle

How would you rate today’s Peel?

All the bananas

Decent

Rotten AF

Happy Investing,

Patrick & The Daily Peel Team