Pedal to the Metal – innovation system analysis and policy recommendations for up-scaling the deployment of direct air capture technology globally

What is this blog post about?

This blog article is about my pledge to conceptualize, conduct, write and submit an academic study until the end of October 2022 on how to scale up the Direct Air Capture Eco-System .

The study uses the Technological Innovation System Framework for deriving policy related recommendations on how to accelerate the global deployment of Direct Air Capture facilities.

The study will be based on (~) 25 semi-structured interviews with representatives from industry, technology, NGOs, financing institutions, research, and policy. Hence, if you have recommendations whom to reach out to please drop me a line to [email protected]. Thanks in advance!

For day to day updates on the project, please check out the hashtag #1paper2months on Twitter.

Video Resources

• Pledge video please click here: https://www.dhirubhai.net/posts/juliuswesche_workingoutloud-daccs-daccs-activity-6971460841711788032-jB30/
• What are Technological Innovation Systems: https://www.dhirubhai.net/feed/update/urn:li:activity:6972822453676830720/

In the following you learn what technological innovation systems are and how they can be studied to derive policy related recommendations.

What is a Technological Innovation System?

Innovation is a collective act. Innovation theory suggests that a heroic individual seldomly drives an invention to be a broadly adopted innovation. While technology needs to be functioning and economically competitive, a variety of other distinct factors influence the deployment of an invention, and thereby determine its adoption and success.

These external factors create what is called an innovation system (also called: innovation eco-system) in which the focal invention is embedded in. One approach that aims to capture this collectivity of the innovation process is the Technological Innovation Systems (TIS) approach. The TIS approach suggests that Technological Innovations Systems are constituted by four distinct pillars (system structures): actors, network building among these actors, institutions (policies, norms, values, habits), and infrastructures (physical, financial, knowledge).

Their performance can be analyzed through so-called system functions. These functions are: entrepreneurial activities, knowledge development, knowledge exchange, guidance of search – which means, the level of which all members of the system envision the same future trajectories, formation of (demand) markets, resource mobilization, and creating legitimacy / counteracting resistance to change.

What is Direct Air Capture?

Direct air capture (DAC)?technologies extract CO2?directly from the atmosphere. This can be achieved with the help of chemical solutions or solid sorbent filters that chemically bind with CO2. The CO2?can be permanently stored in deep geological formations, which leads to negative emissions?or?carbon removal.?This process is known as direct air capture carbon storage (DACCS). Despite discussing climate change related risk for decades, anthropogenic carbonization of the earth’s atmosphere continues (UNFCC 2022). While global net anthropogenic GHG emissions in 1990 where about 38 GtCO2-eq yr–1, emissions have risen to ca. 59 GtCO2 -eq yr –1 and are projected to continue to rise (UNFCC 2022 WG 63, p. 11). Latest projections suggest that to keep transitional challenges such as heat waves and droughts in bounds, large-scale deployment of carbon dioxide removal such as DACCS is needed (Strefler et al 2018, UNFCC 2022 p. 63, IEA 2021, p. 79). The IPCC reports that in modelled pathways that report DACCS and that limit warming to 1.5°C (with no or limited overshoot), global cumulative sequestration of carbon from direct air capture facilities are likely to rise up until 310 GtCO2. Comparing this with the current global net anthropogenic emissions of ~60 GtCO2-eq yr–1, this means that DACCS technologies may need to cumulatively remove up to about five times today's global yearly emissions until the end of the century. Despite this potential large demand for DACCS, current installed capacity is in its infancy. The largest currently operating DACCS plant came online in September 2021, with a capacity of capturing 4 kt CO2/year for storage in basalt formations in Iceland. Hence, if DACCS is to contribute to curb anthropogenic net emissions, its deployment needs to be substantially accelerated.

Study approach

In order to understand an innovation system, which will allow to derive policy recommendations, TIS theory suggests a two-step approach. First, the innovation system structure and system functions (key processes within an innovation system) need to be analyzed to find systemic problems. Second, in order to remedy the systemic problems, policy recommendations need to be drafted and implemented. The aim of this study is to conduct such a two-step TIS analysis with DACCS as the focal technology.

Based on this aim, the research question to be answered is the following: What types of policies can policy makers implement to strengthen the global DACCS TIS so that by the middle of the century CO2 can be captured and sequestered at scale?

To answer this question, a TIS study will be presented that is based on (~) 25 semi-structured interviews with representatives from industry, technology, NGOs, financing institutions, research, and policy policy.

Please drop me a line to [email protected] if you have ideas whom could be valuable to talk to. Thanks a lot :-).

Acknowledgement

This work is supported by the NTNU Energy Transition Initiative and by NTNU KULT. Direct contributors are Prof. Marianne Ryghaug and Prof. Tomas Moe Skj?lsvold .