PEARMAN PULSE - SEPTEMBER
Pearman Media
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THE VALUE OF THE PRINTED WORD
The ‘Print’ media, both Newspapers & Magazines, have copped a beating ever since Digital came to town. 25 years ago, printed Newspapers received around $3.4 billion in advertising per annum which was 40% of every ad dollar spent (CEASA 2000). ?Today in 2024, printed Newspapers are lucky to receive?$160 million or 1% of every ad dollar spent. In 2000, printed Magazines received around $836 million p.a. and today get?one-sixteenth of that at around $50 million p.a. In the halcyon days of printed newspapers, the Fairfax (SMH & AGE) classifieds were known as ‘the rivers of gold’, 56% of all newspaper advertising revenue came from Classifieds. It is not hard to see that seek.com, realestate.com, carsales.com, etc,?did immense damage to the Newspapers’ financial model and certainly dried up any rivers of gold.
The cost of printing and journalists became too much in May 2020 when News Ltd made the tough decision to close the printed editions of over 100 Suburban and Regional newspapers. This move seems to have helped readership but not the advertising revenue. For Metropolitan Newspapers, the advertising revenue through Agencies (SMI) in the past 5 years has dropped from $174 million to $87 million. For those same 5 years, the readership across the metropolitan newspapers has increased by 20%. The closure of those papers in 2020 seems to have pushed the readership of national papers up substantially as they have increased by around 45% in the last 5 years. People heading back to the office is also helping the AFR readership. Interestingly, the NSW metro paper readership has grown 20-30% while the VIC metro paper readership has stayed relatively stable.
The total readership of Newspapers has not changed that much. In 2000, it was estimated that 71% of the population read daily newspapers. In 2024, Morgan says 67% of the population have read a newspaper in the last 7 days across print, website or app.
The printed Magazine sector has also gone through a great deal of turmoil. There are a multitude of titles that have been axed over the years such as Harper's Bazaar, Elle, InStyle, Men's Health, Women's Health, Girlfriend, Good Health, NW, OK, Ralph, FHM, Zoo Weekly, Inside Sport and so it goes on. The readership of the remaining titles has been a mixed bag. The big titles like Australian Women’s Weekly, Woman’s Day and New Idea have decreased readership over the past 5 years from -5% to -25%. However, the homemaker titles have had a resurgence in readership over the same 5 years with House & Garden increasing readership by +57.2%, BH&G up +1.6%, Home Beautiful is +33.3% and Vogue Living up +60.3%.
Clearly Australians are spending more time in their homes and nothing says that more than Bunnings Magazine increasing its readership by 62.2% (up to 1.9 million people). Perhaps it is the cost-of-living issues that have driven the readership of Money Magazine which is up by +83.8% over the past 5 years. We are also travelling more as Qantas Magazine has increased by 75%. The latest Roy Morgan Readership report for the 12 months to June 2024 shows that more than 11.5 million Australians aged 14+ (51.6%) now read print magazines, up 0.5 per cent on a year ago.
Print media can definitely be a valuable advertising opportunity. It is tangible to show customers, staff, a board, etc,?that advertising is actually happening – try doing that with Digital. Inserts can also be a successful strategy and are very accountable for ROI.? It does seem that Print media is not particularly valued even though Newspapers have increased readership over the past 5 years and Magazines are relatively stable across all titles. ?
WHAT'S NEW IN MEDIA - KYLE & JACKIE O IN MELBOURNE
Kyle & Jackie O (K&J) exposure to Melbourne is not completely new as they had a Drivetime show in Sydney (and Melbourne) for 2DAY in 2004. ?It was only a short exposure as they moved to Breakfast on 2DAY in January 2005. From 2009-2011 they were also broadcast nationally on Saturday from 3-7 pm with the Take 40 Australia show.
K&J became household names (at least in Sydney) back in 2014 when they moved from 2DAYFM to join KIISFM on Breakfast. When K&J moved to KIIS Breakfast in 2014 their audience followed, and they were rating well but it took around 5/6 years for their show to really hit its straps. Since 2021, they have been a juggernaut in terms of ‘Sydney Breakfast’ Radio ratings and the dollars that follow.
In April 2024, K&J had their show syndicated to Melbourne KIIS. The rationale for the move was the previous KIIS Breakfast show (‘Jase & Lauren) was the number 5 or 6 rating show in Melbourne. ?Interestingly, in the final survey of 2023, the KIIS Breakfast show ended up being the No.2 Breakfast show in Melbourne. ?Jase & Lauren had to make way for K&J but fled to?Nova’s Melbourne Breakfast slot. ?They have increased that audience by around 40% and were the No.2 breakfast show on the latest Survey 5 ratings released last week.
K&J’s Melbourne Breakfast show has not started particularly well. The Cumulative audience is essentially people sampling the show and it has not grown over the two surveys K&J have been on air.? In survey 5, they are the No.7 rating Breakfast show in Melbourne. Radio has lots of examples of shows that took some time to become huge hits with people like Doug Mulray and Alan Jones not being instant successes. However, there are a number of concerns with the K&J Melbourne introduction. A real concern that ARN (KIIS owners) may not have foreseen is Jase & Lauren going to Nova, having the Melbourne sympathy and increasing their audience from when they were last on KIIS. For K&J, it is a concern that people are not sampling their show despite an enormous advertising campaign in Melbourne to promote it. Perhaps K&J will grow on the Melbourne audience although Melbourne is somewhat more conservative and reserved to Sydney. ?We presume ARN?have researched the market beforehand and tested the K&J style against the Melbourne audience.
Time will tell!!
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DIGITAL - EVERY STEP YOU TAKE, EVERY MOVE YOU MAKE …
In the last few years. there has been a great deal of talk about the disappearing cookies and how that would adversely affect digital buys. Google have also come out recently to say they will not delete cookies but will give consumers the choice to opt out if they want. Cookies are pixels that are put on ‘your web browser’ and then track forward where that consumer goes. This gives rich information about the consumer however their effectiveness is limited to mostly Chrome (Google) browsers. If the cookie is attached to a browser on a mobile, it may not recognise the digital activity across the consumer's?various devices, such as?a PC or iPad unless the person is logged into their account.? Furthermore, due to privacy measures, popular browsers like Safari do not allow cookies to be stored. This naturally creates issues if you wanted to maximise impact at a particular ‘effective frequency’ (eg. 3, 4, 5 times etc..) as frequency can’t be controlled across different devices or recognised across all web browsers with cookies alone.
The strong advice has always been to get your first party data in order and that is still definitely the case. Other ‘tracking’ that digital uses include ‘geo-location’ which is derived through IP addresses. Effectively this is uncovered through the internet connection from your mobile or home, office, shopping centre, McDonalds Wi-Fi signal etc. Geo-location signals can be great to attribute or target people seen at geographic locations however lack the personalisation of an individual person. It’s the internet connection that is being tracked.
That brings us to the latest and greatest of all tracking, the first-party ID. This is effectively related to the first-party data collected, whereby a variety of first-party digital identifiers can be pulled from the ad exchange process, to recognise an individual. Such identifiers include device IDs that the consumers have come to the website from. A first-party ID, can then be linked to your other devices, so it is possible to achieve an ‘effective frequency’ as we are recognising information on the unique person who is behind the devices. A first-party ID solution is really the best way of tracking consumers! ? ?
SMI UPDATE – JULY?2024
The big news from SMI is that the late bookings now added to June meant that June’24 was actually +3.6% greater than the previous June. The best result since October 2022 by a long shot. However, July’24 has just been released and at -7.8%, or $683million, it is not good news. July had six days of the Olympics in it which made a substantial difference to Nine Entertainment’s figures although virtually all media categories reported a decline in advertising revenue. Nine Entertainment increased its ad revenue by +11.4% and just for 9Now it went up a whopping +376% compared to July’23.
Thirteen of the top 20 categories decreased their advertising spend for this July. As we keep predicting, Government will continue to increase spending until all the upcoming elections are over. The Government spend increased +61.2% and the good news is that the largest category, ‘Retail’ increased by +12.4% after a large decline last month. Automotive Brand (the 2nd largest category) also increased by +5.8%. Without those three increases, July would have looked a lot worse. The two biggest declines were in ‘Restaurants’ (-20.8%) and ‘Communications’ (-36.4%).? Interestingly, ‘Financial Services’ increased by +37.6% ($4.2mil) although they are a smaller category.
None of the media could be overjoyed with the July revenue figures. Audio (Radio) scrapped in positive territory with the smallest of revenue increases at +0.1%.? Cinema was next best / worst at -0.3%. Outdoor was -6.5%, Video (TV) declined -7.9% and Digital had its largest decline for a while at -8.3%. It is not unusual for the Print media to decline even when including their ‘digital’ revenue. Magazines were down -15.8% and News Publishing (Newspapers) were down -24.8%. ?
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