The Peanut Butter Theory of AI

First, full disclosure, I like peanut butter I don’t love it. I can’t tell the difference between the major brands or a white labeled product. I am not even that picky on whether it should be chunky or smooth.

I just know I always want it in my pantry and available for consumption.

Thesis: Peanut butter has taken up more mental energy from me over the past 50 years than it has returned in utility. Having to add it to a grocery list each time, decide on brand, category, and price, break through the noise and clutter of advertising and incentives, and then restock in my pantry about 240 times now (in my life) is an exercise in futility.

This would be different if I loved peanut butter and had a passion about the product. I would scour farmers markets trying to find the perfect independent blend and engage in social media groups discussing the ingredients, trends, and industry as whole. I personally just don’t care enough – I have other things that capture passion for me.

The point of this peanut butter story is that there are at least 1,000 products that fall into the peanut butter category for me. Paper for my printer, toothbrushes that need to be replaced each month, hotel reservations to accompany flights, etc.

Multiply the mental energy of peanut butter by 1,000 and it unnecessarily adds to the complexity of life. What if I could redirect that energy to things I am passionate about? What if musicians could play more music, what if poets could write more poetry, what if we could fulfill that original promise of technology saving us time and making our lives better?

The tech solution for this already (kinda) exists:

1.??????? Pick a peanut butter product on Amazon and set it up on Subscribe & Save. The problem is you will guess wrong – not only on your own consumption (which may come in spurts) but when the kids are home for summer break, vacations, etc.

2.??????? Deploy that physical Amazon Button that sits behind the peanut butter in the pantry. When you finish the last scoop press the button and voila, a day later it is on your doorstep. Beyond the problem of kids pressing the button dozens of times (which happened) it is a physical action that most weren’t willing to do. The concept failed and was shut down.

Now, enter AI, along with a few technologies such as IoT and cloud thrown in…

What if the peanut butter sat on a Wi-Fi-enabled weigh scale that would trigger a purchase when less than 2 ounces were left? I am sure Skippy or Jiff would happily buy this device for me if I became a sticky (pun intended) lifetime customer at full MSRP price. Revenue from customers like me would be worth at least 5X more to investors because of the high retention and recurring nature of the relationship. Both sides win.

Deploying sensors, cameras, scales, and other consumption-measuring devices could be funded by the manufacturer and create value on both sides of the equation. This consumption isn’t limited to low-value commodity goods. I spend $50 per month to Apple for my $1,400 phone (plus extended warranty). I have already decided that I want the latest technology each year and that is worth $600 per year. Every September I get a new iPhone sent to me and it delights me each time.

For those that see transportation as strictly moving from point A to point B, that Toyota or Honda lease could be taken to the next level when a new car is dropped off to your driveway every 3 years. No jumping through hoops at the dealership, no piles of paperwork, no cross-sell or upsell techniques, just set it and forget it.

The only mental energy is now spent initially on whether we care about the product category or not. Simply, is it a set it and forget it or is it a thing we want to spend mental calories on?

Brands can cater to these buyers differently – igniting passion for some and convenience for others. Both are profitable businesses. It is the coupon-clippers that may switch loyalty for pennies that is the most difficult and least profitable part of the market to serve. Today, in most commodity businesses it makes up about 30% of the addressable market. A third, volume/distribution-based channel strategy can be deployed here.

Back to peanut butter again. What if my new personal AI co-pilot can see my calendar, listen to my phone calls, read my emails, and in turn, understand my historical household seasonal consumption behaviors, understand my personal psychology, and adjust on the fly? Having the family over for Christmas? Get more aggressive on the peanut butter supply. Going away for the holidays? Relax the supply.

The intersection (and integration) of these technologies is what starts to make a real difference. I can now skip advertising for peanut butter on TV, on the web, or on personalized digital billboards. I just don’t care and brands will be wasting their money on me.

The stakes are high! If brands don’t win the initial battle they may lose a customer for life. How much would businesses spend to know that I was putting up my entire peanut butter business (for life) to bid? I am guessing much more than the cost of a Google SEO campaign or third-party data (cookie) purchase today.

The result for me is a life with 80% less decisions, freeing me up to concentrate on the decisions that are important to me. To live with less noise and clutter in my life. To automate things that I don’t need to spend any mental energy on.

Well, this made me hungry.

Plot twist: I do like some Smuckers low sugar strawberry jam on my peanut butter sandwiches (not because of the product, but purely because of the convenience of the squeeze bottle!)