No peak yet for euro area inflation
May 30th 2022 ?
Global Economy Last week showed some relief for global equity markets and a recovery in risk appetite. US Treasury yields declined, and the euro regained some ground. This week will bring several interesting – and probably quite hawkish – central bank speeches, a new issue of Fed’s Beige Book (for the 14-15 June Federal Open Market Committee, FOMC, meeting) and a rate decision from the Bank of Canada.
Mixed US labour market data ahead
Indicators of the US labour market have become more mixed. Job openings and quits suggest a still strong labour market but shortages and hiring plans in independent businesses have started to ease and jobless claims have risen, albeit from a low level. We get the latest from the NFP, which is the measure of the number of workers in the U.S. excluding farm workers and workers in a handful of other job classifications, on Friday.
Euro-area inflation edging higher, again
Euro-area inflation (April, Tue) is expected to continue higher and monthly price changes are high in a historical perspective, not only for energy but also for goods, food, and services. Time lags between survey data, Producer Price Index and Consumer Price Index suggest that there is more to come.
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Large decline in Swedish GDP
New numbers show that the decline in Swedish GDP in Q1 was large, but the fall during the pandemic was smaller than earlier reported. The Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) is presented later this week and is expected to show resilience, as seen in already published German numbers and the Swedish NIER survey.
Continued large need to sell NOK
Norway’s retail sales, autos excluded, remains volatile on a monthly basis, but the underlying trend is improving. Sales fell 0.9% m/m in April following a 3.0% rise in March. Norges Bank FX purchases for June (Tue) are expected to stay at the same high level that we have seen in April and May as petroleum income continues to be elevated. Later in the week, we also get Manufacturing PMI, unemployment, and home price data.