Peak oil is here. Really?

Since the beginning of industrialization, growth in oil demand has been a close proxy for economic growth. Now, as we transition to clean energy, there’s a real prospect of breaking that linkage. But when the link will be broken depends on the rise of clean energy — and, to some degree, it depends on who you ask.

“If you're talking about structural decline in oil demand, until very recently, you were talking about structural decline in the global economy,” says Bloomberg Opinion columnist David Fickling, who joined Akshat Rathi on this week’s Zero to discuss peak oil. “I don't think we are talking about that now. Because we do have these quite effective substitutes.” Last year, Fickling wrote a column that declared: “Peak Oil Has Finally Arrived. No, Really.” Although his thesis came with important caveats — Fickling is talking specifically about crude oil and specifically about oil demand — he isn’t the only oil-watcher who believes the black goo is headed for structural decline. The executive director of the International Energy Agency says so, too. “I think there's a fairly straightforward path to getting rid of about 50% of oil demand,” Fickling says on Zero.

That’s welcome news for the climate. Burning oil contributes about a third of global emissions and getting to net zero will require weaning humanity off of it. Even oil majors, while insisting the world continue to invest in fossil fuels, are funneling money into renewables, hydrogen and other lower-emitting initiatives. “If you actually break down what Saudi Aramco is spending,” Fickling notes, “a surprisingly large amount of it is actually going on energy transition projects.”

On this week’s Zero, Fickling joins Rathi to talk about where oil demand is falling fastest, how to know when peak oil has arrived and what happens after that. Listen to the full episode and learn more about Zero here. Subscribe on Apple and Spotify to stay on top of new episodes.