Peak Office and Infinite Workplace

The dawn of Work From Anywhere

Amidst the current raging debate of "home vs office" and the hopeful posturing by many in the commercial real estate industry, that "of course everyone wants to come back to the office", and "this is just a temporary blip for office leasing", I sat down this morning for a zoom chat with my good friend Chris Kane. Chris has been in high demand these days as he shares the message of his new book "Where Is My Office? - Reimagining the Workplace for the 21st Century" to a newly receptive global audience of real estate developers, investors and employers all wrestling with the question of what now? (you can buy Chris' book here)

This morning Chris shared that he's preparing for an upcoming debate being hosted by ULI and has been asked to argue the position "the office industry will not snap back". Chris is a deeply experienced workplace leader (he ran CRE for BBC and Disney), is an excellent orator AND is on the right side of history on this topic - so I know the debate outcome is "in the bag" shall we say.

The conversation prompted me to rewatch an address I shared at ULI Europe in Paris 5 years ago. 2016 was a very different time. "CRE Tech" and "Proptech" were relatively new terms. Investment capital was flooding into traditional office asset development. Cranes dotted the skyline of London, Singapore, Dubai, New York, and San Francisco, and most employers happily clung to a worldview that their HQ was the place - the only place - where work could and should happen.

ULI Europe 2016 Keynote - Disruptive Technology

My ULI presentation made the case for disruptive technologies in the CRE industry. I argued then that we are in the midst of the "4th great economic revolution" and that the influences sustainability and network technology were going to be the new forcing functions that would reshape society. I suggested that the real estate industry in particular would undergo a "consumerization" as individual workers would seek and be granted flexibility and choice as to how and where they worked. I ended the presentation with two predictions for 2020 (five years hence):

1. 50% of workspace transactions will happen online
2. We would reach "Peak Office"

Looking back on the historic, extraordinary, devastating, dysfunctional, hopeful, fucked-up year that was 2020, I believe that we can confidently declare that both these predictions rang true. COVID defined 2020, and it forced a global WFH workplace experiment. Most traditional real estate leasing ground to a halt. The transactions that did happen were predominantly flexible office transactions... employees seeking safe secure workspace near home and employers seeking safe, secure collaborative hubs to bring smaller groups of employees together - and these workplace transactions largely started and were completed online with a click. This pattern will endure as COVID releases its grip in the months ahead. Companies of all size and across all industries have openly embraced a new outlook for workplace - committing to support flexibility and choice - with plans to let employees work from home (WFH) or near home as a complement to the traditional central office. At LiquidSpace, we've given this a name, Work From Anywhere (WFA).

The second prediction, of "Peak Office", is perhaps more debatable. However, on this I'll stand firm, albeit with a slight twist. My 2021 declaration: we have reached Peak Portfolio... and the onset of Infinite Workplace. The vast majority of large enterprises are now on a path to rationalize their traditional office portfolios. Many will attempt to sublet large portions of their now idled space. Barring that, as current current leases reach end of term over the coming years, they will be vacated. Enterprise leased portfolios have reached their peak and will now undergo a long contraction. AND, enterprise employees will now enjoy near infinite workplace, as companies embrace work from anywhere policies. One day work from home, the next day a coworking space near home, another day a meetup with colleagues at a hub location, and every so often a return to the traditional HQ. It is ALL in the mix now.

This is a titanic moment for workplace leaders and the CRE industry, and presents unprecedented challenges. Realizing the enormous potential of Work From Anywhere - happier and more productive employees, a lower total cost of workplace, and a lower carbon footprint - demands new strategies, new tools and new workplace partners. Thats why we created LiquidSpace Enterprise, the first and only Work From Anywhere management platform.

While I grieve with the rest of humanity over the devastation that COVID has brought. I believe it will hasten the adoption of Work From Anywhere - one of the many green shoots that is emerging in 2021.