Peace (and Prosperity) Through Strength

Today marks the 35th anniversary of the Tiananmen Square massacre. A young student at the time, I remember being glued to the television as hopeful optimism quickly turned into a deadly crackdown. The events kicked off what has been a multi-decade professional interest in China, the repressive Chinese Communist Party, and the apparent certainty of a US-China conflict. Individual liberty was pit against collectivism, a dynamic captured by “Tank Man” single-handedly stopping a column of tanks.

The West remained na?ve about the true character of the CCP, despite evidence of its brutality. The US slept while the dragon grew ever more rapacious, both internally and externally. The Chinese Communist Party consolidated its power domestically and sought to increasingly project power beyond its borders.

It’s now apparent to almost everyone that we are in the midst of another great power war, this time between the United States and the People’s Republic. And while it’s been a “warm” war to date, there is a very real possibility that it could turn hot. While many perceive the current conflicts raging in Ukraine and Gaza as isolated incidents, I don’t. I see them as proxy battles in this new global conflict, perhaps even a preamble to World War III.

Leaders, policymakers, and commentators seem to be dividing into two camps with respect to how the United States can best address the rising challenge. They segment based on the impact of American strength. One group believes that strength prevents war, arguing that Reagan’s approach to “peace through strength” works. The alternative view is that strength provokes war, a belief that has likely guided the Obama and Biden administrations.

Even after the annexation of Crimea and the Russian-backed insurgencies in Ukraine’s east, President Obama remained steadfast in his refusal to send lethal aid to the Ukrainians. He did send non-lethal aid, but as then-Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko said in an impassioned speech before Congress, “We cannot win the war with blankets .”

The rationale was straightforward: Obama didn’t want to provide arms to the Ukrainians because he and his team felt doing so would antagonize the Russians. The administration feared the projection of strength would provoke an invasion. The folly of that thinking was quickly made obvious, and Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine demonstrated that appeasement is a proven failure as a deterrence strategy. In the end, blankets didn’t prove very useful in deterring Russian tanks.

A variant of this strategic philosophy was on display during the Iran Deal and its redux under Biden. Pallets of literal cash were delivered in the dead of night, sanctions lifted, and the butchers of Tehran coddled—all driven by the mistaken belief that mollifying the mullahs might tame the terrorists and convince the Islamic Regime that it didn’t need nuclear weapons. (It’s also worth contrasting the Biden Iran policy with how the Trump administration methodically sought to isolate and contain Iran through a set of agreements known as the Abraham Accords, in which Arab nations acknowledged and normalized relationships with Israel .) To believe these dynamics didn’t contribute to October 7th would be naive.

A confused Israel policy was another contributor. Under Obama and then Biden, the U.S. positioned itself away from Israel, to a more neutral stance, in the mistaken belief that it might enable America to be a better arbiter of peace. These efforts always began with criticism of Israel to establish bona fides with Israel’s enemies. But what now appears obvious is that only by standing steadfastly behind Israel ( i.e. showing strength) can conflict be deterred. Again fearful that strength might provoke escalation, Biden has been increasingly critical of Israel’s actions following the terrorist attacks on its civilians.

The real impetus for today’s rapidly spreading world chaos, I believe, was America’s chaotic withdrawal from Afghanistan. The rapid retreat, early in Biden’s presidency, telegraphed weakness to the world, and our adversaries were soon on the march. As I’ve said before, when America is strong, our enemies take notice; when America is weak, they take advantage.

Which brings me back to China. And, more importantly, Taiwan.

The recent Taiwanese election has angered the mainland. Voters gave the ruling Democratic Progressive Party a historic third consecutive presidential victory, defying China’s threats that doing so would provoke conflict. In response, China launched one of its most aggressive military maneuvers yet, surrounding the island and demonstrating its ability to cut off any attempt at assistance or resupply of the island nation.

We are now at a crossroads. With the mainland signaling its intent to reintegrate Taiwan into the PRC by force, if necessary, a US-China conflict might be forthcoming. Taiwan could very well be WWIII’s Serbia, a spark that ignites a global conflict. Should China try to retake Taiwan by force, America would have to respond militarily; the only other option would be surrendering to an expansionistic Beijing and allowing it take Taiwan. A Chinese controlled Taiwan would disrupt the lynchpin of the “First Island Chain” strategy that has served to contain communism in the far Pacific since the 1950’s. A Chinese controlled Taiwan would signal to our other allies in the region that we are an unreliable partner. And a Chinese controlled Taiwan would be a de factoadmission that China was the most important power in Asia, leading our allies to accommodate China’s interests.

Given these dynamics point to two bleak options— WWIII or a retreat from the Asia Pacific — it’s imperative that American leaders prevent a “heads China wins, tails America loses” scenario. US policy must lower the benefits and raise the costs of a Chinese invasion of Taiwan. The goal must be to deter China. Once again, American leaders are debating if US strength will prevent or provoke conflict. Ukraine offers a lesson, one which we must not ignore. Appeasement doesn’t work. We need to arm Taiwan and signal to the Chinese that this is a redline they must not cross. We must also be prepared to act, recognizing that such preparation will make conflict less likely. We must telegraph strength. We cannot just send them blankets.

The impact of American strength is likely to be one of the central debates of the upcoming presidential election, and the path the United States chooses will ripple through our foreign policies for decades. The Trump administration and Secretary of State Mike Pompeo were unapologetic in projecting American strength, and the world took notice. Russia, China, and Iran were contained. In fact, the Biden Administration’s belief that strength provokes wars may be the primary reason the world is on fire.

The goal of our actions should be to promote peace and prosperity for all Americans. I believe in an America First foreign policy, but that does not mean American alone. We can and should support our allies, not because they’re our allies, but because it’s in America’s interests to do so. And let me go further by noting that deterrence is cheaper than fighting wars. While it’s hard to project the potential costs of a hypothetical war, it’s clear that prevention is cheaper.

Let’s be honest, we’re in a great power conflict with China right now. Russia, supported by China, invaded Ukraine, which has been supported by the United States. Hamas, backed by Iran (allied with China), attacked Israel, an American friend in region. These proxy wars are part of a greater conflict. But the proxy wars might turn into an actual US-China war over Taiwan, a battle that would adversely impact American prosperity as the costs of such a war would likely be high. Now, perhaps more than ever, it’s critical that America telegraph strength and unwavering support for Taiwan.

(original post: https://mansharamani.substack.com/p/peace-and-prosperity-through-strength )

VIKRAM MANSHARAMANI is an entrepreneur, consultant, scholar, neighbor, husband, father, volunteer, and professional generalist who thinks in multiple-dimensions and looks beyond the short-term. Self-taught to think around corners and connect original dots, he spends his time speaking with global leaders in business, government, academia, and journalism. LinkedIn has twice listed him as its #1 Top Voice in Money & Finance, and Worth profiled him as one of the 100 Most Powerful People in Global Finance. Vikram earned a PhD From MIT, has taught at Yale and Harvard, and is the author of three books, The Making of a Generalist: An Independent Thinker Finds Unconventional Success in an Uncertain World , Think for Yourself: Restoring Common Sense in an Age of Experts and Artificial Intelligence and Boombustology: Spotting Financial Bubbles Before They Burst . Vikram lives in Lincoln, New Hampshire with his wife and two children, where they can usually be found hiking or skiing.