The Path to A Net-Zero USA…in 5 Very Challenging Steps

The passage of historic climate legislation has breathed fresh hope that the country can achieve #netzero emissions by 2050. But it won’t be easy, and society - all of us - must pursue this goal with extreme urgency. We don’t have a moment to lose.

For change to happen and really take hold, individuals need to believe it makes sense for them. Each of us need to feel that making a change will result in something better. That we will move forward. In order to transform the energy system, we all need to feel the benefits.

As I’ve said before, this kind of challenge isn’t new to Americans. What I know for sure is when we come together – government, businesses and society – we can make progress. Policy frameworks will play a critical role to align interests and sustain commitments.

This is sure to be a hot topic at #ClimateWeekNYC , so I thought I would zoom in on five key actions Shell sees as crucial to reaching net zero in the US.

These come straight from Shell’s US Scenario Sketch , which describes an economically and technically possible, but extremely challenging pathway for the US to build an energy system by 2050 that has net zero carbon dioxide.

·????????Invest in lower-carbon fuels and technologies

·????????Build lower-carbon infrastructure

·????????Progress business coalitions in hard-to-abate sectors

·????????Accelerate change through policy alignment

·????????Enable a fair and inclusive transition

Invest in low-carbon fuels and technology

Today #hydrogen and #bioenergy comprise modest portions of the US energy system, while direct air capture and carbon capture and storage (CCS) have seen sluggish growth despite their promise for reducing emissions from the industrial sector. By 2050, Shell’s sketch suggests hydrogen could climb from virtually zero to 7% of final energy consumption, while biomass could go from about 2% of power generation to 10%. When combined with CCS, biomass could not only reduce emissions from the power sector, it could actually remove CO2 from the atmosphere.

Fortunately, the #InflationReductionAct provides tax credits to industrial facilities and power plants that store captured CO2 or which deploy direct air capture. It also awards tax credits for green hydrogen, which is produced through electrolysis powered by #renewable or nuclear electricity.

Finally, the new law will provide a boost to the sustainable #aviation fuel industry and other biofuels. These incentives are long overdue, and at Shell we’re eager to take advantage of them.

Build lower-carbon infrastructure

Over Labor Day weekend, Californians were asked to avoid charging their electric vehicles, because state officials feared it would cripple an electric grid strained by 100-degree heat – this is the kind of #infrastructure failure that must be avoided in the years ahead.

As #EV sales continue to grow, fewer drivers will be using gasoline, and more of the energy system will be electrified. In fact, Shell’s US Sketch describes a system where electricity will climb from 22% of final energy demand today to more than 60% by 2050. For this to be possible, the US will need to invest in more power supply – especially renewables – and modernize its electric #grid .

Let’s speak some truth here: If we want to reduce carbon businesses, we have to build new systems to power our lives. Governments will have to permit that system quickly. Citizens will need to work together to allow it to be built.

The IRA provides $5 billion for retooling and repowering generation and transmission facilities, plus $70 million toward the permitting of new infrastructure. It also increases the production tax credit for wind and solar components.

It’s a good start. But it’s just a start.

Coalitions in hard-to-abate sectors

Transforming the energy system is hugely complex. Shell believes the best way to do it is by sector. Sectors like aviation, shipping, heavy duty passenger and freight, as well as #heavyindustry such as production of steel, chemicals and cement are harder to decarbonize because they require energy-dense fuels such as #oil , #gas and coal. In the Shell US Sketch, net zero is made possible when businesses that supply energy come together with businesses in sectors that use energy to co-create a strategy to transform.

The action needed in each sector will vary, but all sectors share the same three ways to make progress. First, improve energy productivity by making more energy-efficient choices. Second, turn to lower-carbon energy products. Third, remove or geologically store CO2 emissions that cannot be avoided.

Accelerate change through greater policy alignment

Let’s face it. #Policy is the best tool to achieve the scale and speed necessary to reach net zero by 2050. Federal and state policies must build on the strengths of individual regions so that each has a stake in the transformation of the energy system and is contributing to its success. Policy will be needed to spur innovation and lower costs for consumers. And it is essential for investing in the infrastructure needed to support the future growth of the #lowcarbon power system.

A carbon price that rises slowly in the 2020s, then faster in the decades to follow could strengthen investment in lower-carbon technologies such as hydrogen and CCS. Policy can also be used to incentivize nature-based solutions such as preserving and restoring forests or expanding wetlands and mangrove swamps.

Enable a fair and inclusive transition

Finally, and perhaps most importantly, we all must believe that the effort is worthwhile and the results will leave people better off than they are today. For example, vulnerable and underserved communities must have access to affordable and reliable energy. They must be #resilient to climate impacts such as extreme weather conditions and events. And they must benefit equally from climate mitigation and opportunities presented by the transformation of the energy system.

This will be challenging, because this energy transformation will take different shapes in different parts of the country. Some groups, sectors, and states will have a more difficult time than others. It is critical to plan for and manage any potential adverse consequences of a rapid transition to net-zero emissions.?