Path to Net Zero: Milestones and Future Outlook

Achieving net zero emissions by 2050 is a global imperative to mitigate climate change and ensure a sustainable future. The International Energy Agency (IEA) has outlined key milestones and a detailed roadmap for various sectors to reach this goal. This blog will explore these milestones, focusing on how the building sector will evolve through technology adoption and innovation. We will examine the projected developments for 2030, 2035, 2040, and 2050.

2020: The Baseline Year

Caption: The Baseline Year 2020: Understanding Emissions and Energy Sources

In 2020, total CO2 emissions stood at 33.9 Gt. The power sector was the largest emitter with 13.5 Gt, followed by industry (8.5 Gt), transport (7.2 Gt), and buildings (2.9 Gt). Fossil fuels accounted for almost 80% of total energy supply (TES), with solar PV and wind contributing to almost 10% of total electricity generation.

2030: Initial Transition to Low-Carbon Technologies

By 2030, significant strides are expected towards net zero:

• Universal Energy Access: Ensuring that all populations have access to modern energy services.
• Zero-Carbon-Ready Buildings: All new buildings will be constructed to be zero-carbon-ready.
• Electric Vehicle Adoption: 60% of global car sales will be electric, reducing emissions from the transport sector.
• Renewable Energy Expansion: Annual additions of 1,020 GW of solar and wind capacity.
• Clean Technologies in Industry: Demonstration of most new clean technologies in heavy industry at scale.
• Coal Phase-Out: Advanced economies will phase out unabated coal.

Total CO2 emissions are projected to reduce to 21.1 Gt, with the power sector emissions decreasing to 5.8 Gt, and buildings to 1.8 Gt.

2035: Scaling Up Best-in-Class Technologies

By 2035, the transition continues with:

• Electric Motor Sales: All industrial electric motor sales will be best in class.
• Electric Heavy Trucks: 50% of heavy truck sales will be electric.
• Net-Zero Emissions Electricity: Achieving overall net-zero emissions electricity in advanced economies.
• Capacity with CCUS: Capacity fitted with Carbon Capture, Utilization, and Storage (CCUS) or co-firing hydrogen-based fuels reaches 6% of total generation.
• End of ICE Cars: No new internal combustion engine car sales.
• Advanced Appliances: Most appliances and cooling systems sold will be best in class.

CO2 emissions will further reduce to 12.8 Gt, with significant drops in industry (5.2 Gt) and transport (4.1 Gt) emissions.

2040: Retrofitting and Net-Zero Electricity

By 2040, the focus shifts to:

• Retrofitting Buildings: 50% of existing buildings will be retrofitted to zero-carbon-ready levels.
• Low-Emissions Aviation Fuels: 50% of fuels used in aviation will be low-emissions.
• Heavy Industry Transformation: Around 90% of existing capacity in heavy industries will reach the end of the investment cycle and shift to low-emissions technologies.
• Net-Zero Electricity: Achieving net-zero emissions in electricity globally.
• Phasing Out Coal and Oil Power Plants: All unabated coal and oil power plants will be phased out.

Total emissions will decline to 6.3 Gt, with buildings reducing to 0.7 Gt and power sector emissions becoming negative.

2050: Achieving Net Zero

• Renewable Dominance: Renewables will account for almost 90% of total electricity generation.
• Zero-Carbon-Ready Buildings: More than 85% of buildings will be zero-carbon-ready.
• Low-Emissions Heavy Industry: Over 90% of heavy industrial production will be low-emissions.
• Hydrogen Integration: Production of 520 Mt low-carbon hydrogen.
• Carbon Capture: Capturing 7.6 Gt of CO2.
• Solar and Wind Power: Almost 70% of electricity generation globally will come from solar PV and wind.

With these advancements, total CO2 emissions will be reduced to near zero, with substantial negative emissions from the power sector.

By 2050, the world will reach critical milestones for net zero:

Conclusion

The path to net zero is a complex journey requiring global cooperation, innovation, and policy support. The building sector, in particular, will see significant transformations through energy efficiency, renewable energy integration, and retrofitting existing structures. By adhering to these milestones, we can collectively achieve a sustainable future, mitigating the impacts of climate change for generations to come.