The Path to Durable Peace in Gaza: Navigating Minefields

?President Joe Biden's recent statements calling for an end to hostilities in Gaza lack clarity regarding the contours of a post-war scenario. As the U.S. intensifies its push to cease fire, critical questions arise about the readiness of both Israeli and Palestinian stakeholders to embrace such a transition. On the Israeli side, the country's fractious political landscape must be examined to determine if a durable shift is achievable, potentially altering the composition of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's ruling coalition. Simultaneously, the willingness of Hamas, the de facto governing authority in Gaza, to cede control and engage with the Palestinian Liberation Organization (PLO) in jointly administering the territory post-conflict remains uncertain.?

Netanyahu's Tactical Gains Amid Continued Violence

Prime Minister Netanyahu gained a tactical extension following the brutal massacre to free four Israeli hostages from the Nuseirat refugee camp in Gaza. The Hollywoodish extraction bolstered Netanyahu's longstanding argument that sustained military action against Hamas remains necessary to secure the release of captives, despite the mounting Palestinian civilian toll. The Nuseirat savage bombing that facilitated the hostage retrieval resulted in a further 274 Palestinian deaths, 698 injuries, and three hostages, compounding Israel's already tenuous international standing, particularly regarding the issue of civilian casualties in Gaza.

Biden's Policy Conundrum: War Management vs. Ceasefire Calls

While President Biden officially welcomed the release of the Nuseirat hostages, indicating his administration's desire to see hostilities cease, the White House has projected a conflicting stance. National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan suggested that alternative means, including further military operations, may be warranted to retrieve the remaining Israeli captives. The American casualties incurred during the Nuseirat extraction underscore the significant risks inherent in such unilateral Israeli interventions.

Israel's Shifting Political Terrain

The recent resignations of former Defense Minister Benny Gantz and former Chief of General Staff Gadi Eisenkot from Netanyahu's unity government are unlikely to significantly disrupt the Prime Minister's grip on power in the near term. Netanyahu had incorporated the two centrist figures into his coalition at the outset of major hostilities in Gaza to broaden his parliamentary backing and project a moderate governing stance. Despite their exits, Netanyahu retains a narrow Knesset majority supported by his right-wing religious allies.?

The Biden administration may exert leverage within Netanyahu's Likud party itself, targeting figures like Defense Minister Yoav Galant, who has advocated for including the PLO in administering Gaza post-conflict. However, the prospects of internal political shifts enforcing a pivot towards a negotiated settlement remain uncertain at best.

Biden's Diplomatic Two-Step?

Secretary of State Antony Blinken's impending visit to Tel Aviv reflects the administration's intensifying diplomatic efforts. Washington aims to leverage its political capital following the Nuseirat hostage operation to push Israel towards a complete ceasefire in Gaza. However, achieving a comprehensive and enduring halt to hostilities remains a complex proposition. Current U.S. efforts are focused on preliminary phases such as prisoner exchanges and humanitarian aid flows into Gaza—an approach that preserves the option of a potential resumption of Israeli military operations after any initial temporary cessation of violence.

Palestinian political fragmentation

The readiness of the Palestinian side to engage constructively in shaping a post-war political reality in Gaza is also fraught with uncertainty. Hamas political bureau chief in Gaza, Yahya Sinwar, has reportedly prioritized a permanent ceasefire and full Israeli withdrawal from the Strip, leaving other key issues of governance and security unaddressed for the moment. Meanwhile, senior Biden adviser Amos Hochstein traveled to Lebanon in a bid to encourage the Iran-backed Hezbollah to use its influence over Hamas to embrace a negotiated settlement, underscoring the complex regional dynamics at play.

Beijing's Unification Gambit?

In a parallel diplomatic track, China has initiated efforts to unify splintered Palestinian political factions through direct dialogue. An upcoming meeting in Beijing between Hamas and the PLO reflects this aim. Hamas' tentative agreement to form a unity government, albeit with limited decision-making roles, potentially signals a shift towards presenting a more unified Palestinian front. However, the entrenched divides between Hamas and the PLO's Fatah faction—over divergent visions for governance structures, political programs, and relations with Israel—pose formidable obstacles to substantive rapprochement.

Pathways Forward in Fragile Landscapes

As complex diplomatic maneuverings intensify, the prospects for achieving a durable ceasefire that paves the way for a negotiated political settlement in the Gaza conflict remain tenuous. Within Israel, Prime Minister Netanyahu faces mounting pressures—from emboldened right-wing elements demanding sustained military engagement and from centrist voices calling for accommodations to facilitate a respite from violence. The Biden administration is trying to deftly navigate its own domestic political currents while leveraging its influence among regional players with sway over Hamas, while Beijing's intervention adds a new dynamic, but garnering the requisite mutual confidence among Palestinian factions to genuinely unify ranks will be an uphill battle.??

Ultimately, the road towards sustainable calm in Gaza is riddled with obstacles, from the combustible mix of internal political forces on both sides to the high-stakes diplomatic juggling act playing out among exterior powers. Achieving a mutually accepted post-conflict political framework that addresses the core grievances driving the Israeli-Palestinian conflict may prove even more daunting than the perpetual challenge of brokering temporary ceasefires. As the Biden administration intensifies its push for a negotiated settlement, the fragilities underpinning the key players' stances augur a vigorous and uncertain process ahead … Meanwhile, the Genocide must be STOPPED.