Participative Warfare, Russia’s Drone Production, and a Dystopian Future

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This week in Tech for War and Peace

Digital technologies are changing how we participate in warfare, both by foreign volunteers travelling to participate in the battle, and how civilians are a part of the warfare. DIIS released a brief on how this is playing out in Ukraine.

Since the start of the war, Russia’s drone production has been slow due to central control and monopolies, but it might be catching up.

But first, Stuart Russell who released the online film Slaughterbots in 2017 together with the Future of Life Institute, comments on the current developments of low-cost armed AI drones in an interview with the New York Times:

“What’s happening in Ukraine moves us toward that dystopian future. I am already haunted by Ukrainian videos of soldiers who are being pursued by weaponised drones piloted by humans. There’s often a point when soldiers stop trying to escape or hide because they realise they cannot get away from the drone. There is nowhere for them to go, so they just wait around to die.”

— Stuart Russel, Professor of Computer Science at Berkeley

The Big Story

Participative Warfare and War Volunteers in Ukraine

On March 13, 2022, the Yovoriv military base in Western Ukraine was hit by 30 Russian missiles. The toll counted to 64 killed, tens missing, and 160 wounded. According to Russian officials, 180 foreign mercenaries were killed. The attack was carried out after the detection of British country code smartphones (+44), indicating the presence of foreign volunteers.

Digital technologies are reshaping foreign participation in warfare and this week, the Danish Institute for International Studies released a brief on the topic, focused on Ukraine.

The war in Ukraine is the first conventional war to occur in an entirely connected information ecology, often referred to as ‘participative warfare.’ Facilitated by advancements in technology and communication networks, this type of warfare is characterised by the integration of various non-traditional actors into the conflict context.

Digital tools are used to organise the war situation, fundraise for equipment, and recruit volunteers. Often, volunteers meet each other online, navigating their way to the conflict with help of web platforms such as Telegram and Reddit. Many volunteers said to DIIS that they were drawn to participating through the endless stream of videos and images of frontline combat they were exposed to daily online.

The increase in drones, electronic warfare and secure communication systems has led to an increase in foreign fighters with non-military tech backgrounds. One computer science graduate volunteering in Ukraine said to DIIS that: "if I want to make a career for myself later in the defence sector, where can I learn more than here, right now?"

Digital platforms have made it easier than ever to travel and directly participate in distant wars, but there are also the "Tik-Tok warriors" who see the conflict as an opportunity for personal prestige. As one security professional in Ukraine remarked, "you would never have made it to Afghanistan because it's not so convenient. Now you've got to come here and be the fucking hero, and have your own little Instagram account, so all your friends can see you.”

The participatory warfare reaches far beyond fundraising and recruiting Foreign Legion volunteers. For example, the Ukrainian government launched several national security smartphone apps to enable civilians to use their smartphones to report troop movements and Ukraine’s IT army, a globally dispersed group of volunteers, engaged in cyber-attacks on Russian assets.

This expansion of engagement possibilities is blurring the lines between civilians and combatants, resulting in gaps in the rules of war. In the brief, DIIS is also raising concerns about the social and psychological effects of the unlimited amount of war footage easily accessible by anyone.

Russia’s Drone Production is Catching Up

When Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022, very few small drones were in service. Now, they are used extensively by both sides for surveillance, artillery spotting, and strike missions. 80 % of the destruction can be traced to drones.

As we saw last week, Ukraine adapted quickly. Russia, on the other hand, has central control and monopolies, and could not move so fast - but does have far greater resources that are being directed toward drone development.

Samuel Bendett, an expert on Russian drones and adviser to both the CNA and CNAS, talked to Forbes about how Russia is adapting

“Part of the official resistance to such purely commercial products had to do with these drones’ inability to withstand electronic warfare and other countermeasures as purely commercial products,” says Bendett.

But things have changed and the Russian military now accepts small drones as a key asset, with a production of a million a year. But there is still resistance within the military that has slowed down the procurement and most drones do not come through military supply channels.

“Most needs for tactical drones - quadcopters, FPVs, etc. – were, and continue to be, filled by volunteer organisations that procure them from China or assemble them from Chinese parts,” says Bendett. He explains that Russian volunteers say that they are delivering drones to their troops 'in spite of and despite of' government and Ministry of Defence involvement.

The biggest Russian producer of FPV drones appears to be the volunteer group Sudoplatov Battalion. The group produces more than a thousand kamikaze VT-40 drones a day, using 90%+ of Russian-sourced components. Sudoplatov is an official supplier of the Ministry of Defence.

“It’s likely that the overall Russian efforts encompassing small drone development and production is greater than that of Ukraine,” says Bendett.

In the News

Venture Capitalists Are Gunning for New Frontiers in Techno-War

Venture capital firms in Silicon Valley are aggressively pursuing advancements in automated warfare, heavily integrating artificial intelligence (AI). This push for AI-driven military technology is driven by substantial financial incentives and a belief in the superiority of these new “miracle weapons.” Despite concerns about malfunctions and the ethical implications of removing humans from critical decision-making processes, figures like Peter Thiel and Palmer Luckey are leading this technological charge, seeking to outpace military rivals such as China. Read more at The Nation.

Palmer Luckey Has Reshaped Tech’s Relationship with the Military

Palmer Luckey, founder of Oculus and Anduril Industries, has significantly influenced the intersection of technology and military applications. Through Anduril, Luckey has developed AI-powered autonomous systems for military use, advocating for rapid innovation in defence technology. His work underscores a shift towards integrating cutting-edge technology with national defence strategies, highlighting both opportunities and ethical dilemmas. Read more at LA Times.

Performance Drone Works is Putting Drones in Soldiers’ Backpacks

Performance Drone Works (PDW) has developed the C100, a compact drone that fits in a soldier’s backpack and features anti-jamming radio technology and AI tracking. This domestically made drone aims to bring combat drone innovation back to the U.S., countering China’s lead in this area. PDW’s C100 has secured multimillion-dollar deals with the Department of Defense and is deployed through U.S. Special Operations Command. The C100’s compact size and advanced technology make it a game-changer in modern warfare. Read more at Fast Company.

The New Space Race: Why the Military Wants to Partner with the Private Sector

The military is increasingly looking to partner with private companies in the space sector to leverage commercial innovations for national security purposes. This collaboration aims to enhance the military’s space capabilities, including satellite communications, surveillance, and space-based missile defence. The private sector’s agility and technological advancements are seen as crucial for maintaining a strategic advantage in the evolving space domain. Read more at Defence News.

US Ambassador Calls China’s Tech Support for Russia During Ukraine Invasion a ‘Major Mistake’

China’s support for Russia’s invasion of Ukraine through the provision of military technology is deemed a “major mistake” by US Ambassador to Beijing Nicholas Burns. Burns highlighted that China’s actions contradict its longstanding insistence on sovereignty and territorial integrity. Despite China’s claim of not providing direct military aid, it has maintained strong trade ties with Russia throughout the conflict. Burns’ remarks come amid heightened tensions, emphasising the existential crisis Russia’s invasion poses to Europe. The ongoing partnership between China and Russia, which includes significant purchases of Russian oil and gas, continues to bolster Moscow’s war economy. Read more at US News.

Avanti Collaborates with UNHCR to Provide Connectivity to Refugees Across Uganda

Avanti Communications, in partnership with the UNHCR, is providing solar-powered satellite broadband connectivity and laptops to seven refugee camps in Uganda, including Adjumani, Bidibidi, Imvepi, Kiryandongo, Palabek, and Rhino Camp. This initiative connects UNHCR Protection Units with multi-purpose technology centres, offering refugees and host communities access to vital information and services. These centres facilitate access to humanitarian aid, livelihood services, and educational resources, enhancing refugee self-reliance and easing pressure on host countries. Avanti’s efforts have significantly improved the quality of life for refugees and their host communities by enabling access to education and livelihood opportunities. Read more at UNHRC.

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