A (partial) end to the trade war?
Giorgio Brusati
Dipendente presso Ministero dell'Interno, Questura di Torino, Commissariato PS di Ivrea
Those who follow me since enough time, know that my business aims to help western companies to better understand foreign markets, in particular China.
Now, unfortunately, doing business with China is getting increasingly difficult due to the disruptions caused by the Covid outbreak, but I am hopeful that soon enough everything will be back to business as usual.
The Covid pandemic and, recently, the unfortunate war between Russia and Ukraine, made us kind of forget the previous important disruption in international trade: the commercial war between USA and China, which is far from over.
The Trump Administration introduced some tariffs on Chinese imports, part of his anti China rethoric to please his electoral base.
Even though Donald Trump is not in office anymore, the new Biden Administration continued on his predecessor's path and kept battling China commercially and financially.
Let's also not forget that the "hostilities" brought to the delisting of several Chinese companies from Wall Street, due to "irregularities".
However, it looks like something might change.
The well known media outlet Politico, published an article (link at the end), in which they say that, probably, part of the tariffs might be cancelled, with the excuse of "easing the inflation".
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This move, backed by Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen, is very likely going to increase the divide already present in American politics. In fact, US Trade Department Chief, Katherine Tai, is not welcoming this idea because, as she said:
lifting tariffs now would cost the U.S. leverage at the negotiating table with the Chinese and would not do much to combat inflation
So, on one hand we have the Treasury Secretary willing to lift some tariffs because "they do not serve strategic purpose" and on the other hand, the Administration's Trade Chief who instead thinks that tariffs are to be seen as leverage.
Interesting isn't it?
Anyway, nothing is certain for now and might just be a show of force from different schools of thought in the current Administration.
Also, important to stress out, this move might very well politically hurt the President because China is still seen as a threat by the majority of US politicians.
Here is the link to the "Politico" article:
https://www.politico.com/newsletters/weekly-trade/2022/04/25/tariff-intrigue-piques-as-china-bill-conference-approaches-00027435
Applied AI + China Strategy Expert
2 年Thank you for sharing your thoughts, Giorgio. As you know, we share common interest in helping western companies better understanding the mindset of Chinese businesses. Talking about this i would like to reverse your question: What would be the best interest for Chinese business with regards to American tariff? My experience taught me to always look beyond the real fact. The player here is China. Not America. American policy makers are just a referee without referrals and China is, overall, playing its game. In other words, I see it potentially in favor of the Chinese when in America (and the west to an extend) they openly discuss (fight) on what is right or wrong to reduce their deficit.