Part III - Future of Governance @ speed of Life

This is the third and final post in the series dealing with the impact of Technology on the democratic model of Governance. Based on my research and experience, I present some of my personal views. As we look toward the next decade, I realise that the accelerating pace of technological advancements will shape the evolution of democracy.

Here’s a step-by-step view of how technology will transform democratic processes over the next ten years. The timelines will invariably change, but I thought it best to peg the progress to a timeline to provide a view of how it will pan out if what I predict does come true. Nonetheless, the social propensity is high, and so are the confidence markers.

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Phase 1: 2024-2026 - Laying the Foundation

1. Digital Infrastructure Upgrades

• Governments and tech companies will prioritise upgrading digital infrastructure to support more robust and secure online platforms. High-speed internet access will expand, aiming to close the digital divide, particularly in rural and underserved areas.
• Semiconductors (highly sophisticated and customised GPUs) required for computing will continue to have a backlog.
• Governments will start investing in quantum computing (people and technology) to advance the game.
• There are e-voting systems; however, pilot projects for blockchain-based voting systems will be initiated in select municipalities and states. These projects will focus on ensuring the security, transparency, and scalability of e-voting technologies.
• Media companies will play a BIG role in ensuring transparency of various systems. They will ask tough(er) questions.

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2. Public Engagement and Digital Literacy

• Understanding the “Game Theory,” governments will be forced to launch digital literacy campaigns to educate citizens on the responsible use of technology, the importance of data privacy, and how to respectfully engage effectively in online political discussions. This will help reduce/modulate the echo chambers, which focus on exploiting the national democratic fault lines. This will be driven by a strategic “defensive approach.”
• Early versions of AI-powered civic engagement platforms will be tested. These platforms will allow citizens to participate in local decision-making processes, share feedback on policies, and communicate directly with elected officials. This will be the most critical change in this section of laying the foundation. It is highly complex, so many things must be considered before rolling out this public platform. India has attempted to do this and is aware of and appreciates the challenges.

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3. AI in Public Discourse

• AI-driven platforms will begin to play a more significant role in public discourse, with AI algorithms helping to curate news feeds and personalise political content. Social media companies will introduce more sophisticated AI tools to detect and reduce the spread of misinformation. Please read the first two blogs for more information.
• Public and private sectors will start meaningfully collaborating on ethical guidelines for AI use in media, focusing on transparency and accountability to prevent manipulation and bias.

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Phase 2: 2026-2028 - The Expansion Phase

4. Scaling Up E-Voting

• It is ambitious, but enhanced E-voting will be expanded to more regions as pilot programs demonstrate success. Governments will invest in developing more secure and user-friendly e-voting systems, incorporating blockchain for added transparency.
• There is a slight possibility of mobile voting applications being introduced for certain classes of citizens, enabling citizens to vote securely from their smartphones. There are numerous questions and many nuances, but the challenges are manageable.

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5. AI in Policymaking

• AI will begin to be integrated into policy analysis and development. Governments will use AI to model the potential impacts of proposed policies, simulate economic outcomes, and optimise resource allocation. AI-driven insights will become a vital part of the policymaking process.
• AI tools will assist in public consultations, analyse feedback from large-scale citizen engagements, and summarise critical insights for policymakers based on the inputs from Phase 1.

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6. Strengthening Cybersecurity and Privacy

• To enhance the Fifth-generation warfare (5GW) capabilities of digital security, new regulations and standards will be introduced to protect against cyber threats and ensure the privacy of citizen data in democratic processes.
• Governments will invest more in AI-driven cybersecurity measures to protect election infrastructure from hacking and interference and ensure the integrity of democratic systems.

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Phase 3: 2028-2030 - Integration and Innovation

7. Widespread Adoption of AI-Driven Governance

• AI will be widely adopted in governance, with more governments using AI to streamline administrative processes, manage public services, and monitor policy implementation. AI will help detect inefficiencies and recommend improvements in real time.
• Like the concepts used in blockchain, Decentralized Autonomous Organizations (DAOs) will begin to emerge as alternative governance models in some sectors. These will allow communities to self-manage resources and decisions without traditional hierarchical structures. These new models will challenge the existing hierarchical model (in a positive manner), as no “single” person will be a hero. ?However, the hierarchal governance models will continue, albeit tested and enhanced. The concept per se is not new, as various thinkers have discussed similar models in the past.

However, what is different this time around is that technology will drive this change.

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8. Enhanced Civic Engagement

• Advanced AI-powered platforms will enable more dynamic civic engagement. These platforms will allow citizens to continuously debate, propose policies, and vote on issues rather than just during election cycles. AI will help synthesise public opinion and provide real-time feedback to policymakers.
• Global digital platforms for cross-border collaboration will begin to take shape, allowing citizens from different countries to collaborate on global issues such as climate change, human rights, and international trade.

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9. Combating Misinformation and Polarization

• AI tools will become more sophisticated in detecting and countering misinformation. Platforms will deploy real-time fact-checking and content moderation to prevent the spread of fake news. Algorithms will be designed to promote diverse viewpoints and reduce echo chambers.
• Governments and tech companies will collaborate on transparency initiatives, ensuring that AI algorithms used in media and social platforms are open to public scrutiny and designed to prioritise accurate, unbiased information.

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Phase 4: 2030-2034 - The New Normal (Continuum)

10. Fully Digital and Secure Elections

• By 2034, voting will regain its sliding glory and become an essential tool for the citizens of any democratic society. Turnout will increase as voting becomes more accessible and convenient. The standard physical voting options will continue; however, elections will primarily be conducted digitally, ensuring transparency and preventing tampering. Technology will make the process of voting more objective-driven rather than person or persona-driven.
• Continuous voting and feedback mechanisms will be standard in many democracies, allowing citizens to have an ongoing say in policy decisions. AI will aggregate this feedback to inform government actions and priorities. Based on the knowledge that the government has (national security), it can make informed choices.

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Will there be disagreements, marches, strikes or riots? – Unfortunately, those will continue. That is what being human is all about.

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11. AI as a Trusted Partner in Governance

• AI systems will be designed to operate transparently, with precise accountability mechanisms to ensure they reflect public values and priorities.
• Ethical oversight bodies will be established to monitor AI use in governance, ensuring that AI systems are free from bias, respect privacy, and uphold democratic principles. However, seeing the pace of regulatory rollouts, I see challenges in enforcement and judiciary mechanisms required to empower these bodies.

?12. Global Digital Democracy

• A new form of global digital democracy will emerge, where citizens worldwide can engage in collaborative decision-making on global issues. New platforms will enable cross-border voting, discussion, and policy development, creating a more interconnected and participatory global governance structure. In the short to mid-term, new fault lines will emerge.
• Efforts to bridge the digital divide will continue, ensuring that all citizens, regardless of location or socioeconomic status, have access to the tools and knowledge needed to participate fully in this new democratic landscape.

?Closing comments

Democracy will become more digital, inclusive, and responsive. The changes will make democratic processes more accessible, transparent, and efficient, but they will also require careful management to address challenges such as privacy, security, and the potential for manipulation. The next decade will be a critical period of transition, during which the foundations for a new era of democracy will be laid and solidified. While this will all happen in the cyber world, basic needs and instincts will still drive the real world. That is what makes it interesting. Thank you for reading.

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