Part II

After falling by nearly 4% yesterday before the announcement of the withdrawal of the USA, oil rebounded violently and is trading this morning at its highest level since 2014. 

It is clear that the USA wants to restrict Iranian oil exports once again. Less oil supply and therefore an anticipation of price increases.

A rise in prices that would not be good news for the American consumer. Especially with the driving season, the season when American consumers are very sensitive to the price of gasoline. A rise in the price of gasoline would be extremely unpopular and Donald Trump does not want it. And that is what is limiting the rise in oil prices for the time being. Traders think that Saudi Arabia, obviously in favor of the U.S. decision, will eventually come, along with other OPEC members, to increase its oil production if necessary to avoid a surge in prices above 80 dollars for example.

The market is betting on a new range of price variation between 60 and 80 dollars with high volatility in oil prices, that could be reflected in the foreign exchange market.