PART 2: STILL SURVIVING...

Day 27 of the lockdown !! It’s surreal. Just in January we were watching social media channels showing empty streets in Wuhan, people locked in, some being dragged into isolation, food being left outside doors. We had our eyes wide open, mouth agape but our MIND was in complete denial. Tsk tsk!! Poor guys!! Wow!! China had 50 million people in lock down!! Amaaazing !!  Not realising that we would also be in the same boat soon and we would lock down 1.3 BILLION PEOPLE. We showed China the door on that one!!

Thank you for the encouraging nudges for me to quickly come out with PART DUEX. So here it is. !! As revival is still a distance away I have renamed this section as “Still Surviving”. In this section I have chosen to ask questions and even more questions. Questions that we need to ask ourselves, our families, colleagues and our industry.

 So till now, the government’s response has been way below expectations, and that’s not for the lack of trying. Every representative trade body led by FAITH (Federation of Associations in Tourism and Hospitality) and supported by organizations like CII and FICCI, have done their bit with gusto.

The Government asked for a lot of information from the industry:

• How many people does the industry employ?
• What is the total salary outflow of the industry?
• How many tourism units are registered with central or state governments?
• How many employees have Aadhar and PAN registrations?
• How many employees have bank accounts for direct transfers ?
• What is the value of total monthly EMIs of the industry?
• What is the value of GST submitted last year by the industry?
• Etc. Etc.

 All the questions have been answered in detail.

 I will not go into the figures at the moment as that might be masala for the next article.

However, the questions have been endless, frustratingly so, and the industry has done its part and answered every last one. Now all we can do is Eat, Pray and ……Pray.

 So, what happens in the meantime?

Everyone and his/her uncle is on a Zoom call. Suddenly the world has realized that you can wear a decent shirt with torn shorts and chappals and still look cool in a video conference. Till such time you forget to switch off the camera and get up to take a loo break. Then all hell breaks loose.

But on a serious note, these Zoom calls have become the “New Normal” for now. They allow you to work and deliberate on a daily basis. God forbid if you don’t have at-least three Zoom calls a day, you are just not there yet.

These video calls have allowed us to rise above the feeling of GUILT of staying home as we can now log in to a Zoom call and “Go to Work”. I have been lucky to be a part of many such “Go to Work” calls where people better than me are asking questions and seeking answers.

Here are a few of them for all of us to mull over… 

• How many people do you ACTUALY need to run your operation?
• Do you actually need an office space post Covid-19 ?
• Is it time to re-negotiate rates and cancelations policies with vendors? The days of 100% cancelation post 30 or 90 days seem to be history.
• Should we start offering last minute drop out deals to client along with liberal and refundable deposit schemes?
• Are hotel prices going to rise or fall ? One would think they would fall as supply outstrips demand. But on the other hand chains and smaller units may limit active inventory in the market. So it's still anyone’s guess.
• Are flights going to be cheaper ? Not if flights are forced to leave the middle seat empty on all flights.
• Will domestic start first or inbound ?
• What about out bound ?
• What will the clients look for before booking a hotel ? price or hygiene ?
• Is bus and train travel still a viable option ?
• Etc. Etc.

 Then in the Adventure Travel sector there are even more questions…

•  Are mass trekking, camping and big group adventures over ?
• Will the concerned authorities eventually realize that we cannot allow OVER TOURISM ?
• Will clients still visit crowded and congested destinations like Shimla and Manali, or will they go further and go remote ?
• Will family and close friends travel supercede big group departures ?
• How will large campsites become COVID friendly?
• How will we run COVD friendly expeditions and treks?
• How to safeguard our staff from COVID?
• WILL ADVENTURE TRAVEL DRIVE THE NEXT TOURISM GROWTH ?
• Etc. Etc.

 These are all valid questions that all of us will need to answer. Maybe you can all start discussing these within your own small Zoom groups. Of course, this does not take away from the fact that YOU STILL need to figure out how to pay your SALARIES and EMI’s.

What we do know is this: We're in for the long haul.

The “Gurus “of the industry (with minute contribution from my end), have predicted the following:

1. Covid-19 will probably not leave us in peace at-least till July/September. Maybe longer. It may even pay us another visit again in the winters.
2. No vaccines will be available before mid 2021.
3. No inbound traffic till vaccine is found. Even if there is, it will only be a trickle. So TOURISM WILL NOT TRAVEL. Think about it.
4. Domestic will start first, but nothing before October.
5. Short haul and driving holidays will kick off earlier.
6. Airlines are already retiring Long Haul aircraft.
7. Corporate travel only where really essential.
8. MICE, tough call but maybe starts only in 2021.
9. Price of holiday is down on the list. Health and Safety moves up to take priority in decisions.
10. Holidays will be down on the list. Securing financial future of family will come first.
11. The Big Fat Indian destination wedding is a thing of the past.
12. But then after a long lock down there is also a feel good prediction that REVENGE TOURISM will bump up the tourism numbers over a short period.

Despite all the predictions and graphs and statistics you may see, end of the day please remember that these are only predictions.

No one knows your business better than yourself. You need to decide what will work for your business model. People like me, can at best either add value for you or add to the confusion. Depends on how you want to look at the glass.

You need to trust your gut which should be able to tell you what to do. If it does not, then maybe you need to change your line of work.

In Part 3, I will try and focus on what our NEW NORMAL tourist will look like POST COVID-19