Part 1: The Future of Education, March 2023 Edition

Education is changing. I might be biased as I'm living this every day through my work, but I imagine you see it as well: in a comment from family or friends, in a news article or piece of public policy, or in your own preferences and decisions. Over the past few years, we have stepped back regularly at Great Hearts Nova to explore the national dynamics impacting the work we do every day.

This week, I’m writing to expand the circle and invite you all into this conversation. Each day, I’ll send out an email with my perspective on what is happening in K-12 education ending with how we’re responding here at Great Hearts Nova.

Welcome to Part 1: The Future of Education, March 2023 Edition.

Setting the Stage

In a recent New York Times article titled, “America Should Be in the Middle of a Schools Revolution” by David Brooks, he explores the significant and persistent trends impacting the country during and since the pandemic began. Academic regression, absenteeism, surging academic inequalities, worsening discipline issues – all increasing in depth, breadth, and significance across the country.

At the same time, satisfaction in America’s public schools is at a 22 year low – and if one looks at the numbers by political party, at an all-time low. In 2022, overall satisfaction with K-12 Education in US dropped to 42% according to Gallup, 9% lower than where it was in 2019 and the lowest since 2000.

What’s underneath these headlines? Where are kids going? Let start our exploration.

Enrollment & Population Growth

One of the most important topics – for education, family, and economic dynamics – is that of enrollment. There was a 9% decline in public school enrollment between Spring 2021 and Spring 2022, with an additional 1.1 million students leaving the public school system between Fall 2022 and Spring 2021.

There are also other factors impacting enrollment. Just earlier this month, Texas Education Agency Commissioner Mike Morath told the Texas Legislature that he expects a 2.2% decline in enrollment over the next four years.

"'The best projections that we have is that enrollment is going to actually begin to trend negative on a net basis for the next decade in Texas because of this shift in birth rates,' Morath said. 'And this is not well understood. This is a statewide phenomenon. It’s not specific to any region or geography.'" – Commissioner Mike Morath, Enrollment on the decline in Texas public schools

There is a real trend downward in the America birthrate says the authors of a CDC's National Center for Health Statistics report published Jan 10, 2023. This will have far reaching and general impacts on American society and certainly in education. Let’s make sure we are clear eyed about the implications in education: fewer births means fewer kids means lower enrollment means greater competition.

What are the macro enrollment and population trends you're seeing in the larger ecosystem? How do you think these will impact K-12 education?

Until tomorrow –

Kurtis