Paris Olympics 2024 3-Day Forecast Demonstration: Day 7

Good morning LinkedIn,

With the International Olympic Committee – IOC 's Paris Olympics going on and people from all over the world converging on France, I thought it would be a great time to show how the NSF NCAR - The National Center for Atmospheric Research Weather and Forecasting Model (#WRF) can be utilized for daily forecasts.

The WRF model is a regional weather model that can take the global weather models, like NOAA: National Oceanic & Atmospheric Administration 's Global Forecasting System (GFS) and downscale the weather data to very high resolution forecasts. This provides meteorologists and atmospheric scientists around the world the opportunity to see weather features that might not be visible on global weather models.

For the next several days I will be collaborating with Aaron Studwell, Ph.D. of EC Sports Management & RaceWeather to provide weather analysis and forecast for the Paris Olympics. Due to a previous commitment Dr. Studwell will not be doing today's forecast and it will myself.

Will H. holds a Master’s of Science in Environmental Science with an Atmospheric Science concentration from the University of Massachusetts Lowell , where he graduated Cum Laude, and a Bachelor’s of Science in Meteorology from 美国德克萨斯A&M大学 .

His career includes roles as an Operational Meteorologist at IMPACTWEATHER INC. , a StormGeo Company in Houston, TX, and at WatchDog Weather, where he supported localized weather forecasting services.

Will has made significant contributions to the field of meteorology, notably through the development of the WRF-MOSIT toolkit. This innovative software, which facilitates the installation of weather models across various platforms, has been downloaded over 6000 times by users in more than 140 countries.

Beyond his technical achievements, he provides consultancy services on weather-related technologies and actively advocates for improved safety measures for student athletes in Texas. His expertise is further enhanced by his active participation in the American Meteorological Society and his commitment to continuous learning and professional development.

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Forecast Information:

Thursday 1 Augest 2024

Good morning Paris,

It's Day 7 of the 2024 Paris Summer Olympics.

Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are expected to end by the end of the day as an upper level low pressure trough moves eastwards across France. Behind the low pressure system, the Azores high pressure system is forecast to extend across the region through early Saturday morning. Over the weekend an upper level trough will extend down from the British Isles with an associated weak cold front that will bring the chance of scattered rain and thunderstorms. Behind the front expect temperatures to be pleasant with northwesterly winds. Winds could be gusty at times which be pleasant for the athletes and spectators, especially after the hot and light winds experienced in this first week of the games.

Paris Forecast

Thu 1 Aug: Variably cloudy, scattered showers ending throughout the day, 33C/22C (91°F/72°F)

Fri 2 Aug: Partly sunny, 28C/19C (82°F/66°F)

Sat 3 Aug: Increasing clouds throught the afternoon, isolated PM showers and thunderstorms 26C/18C (79°F/64°F)

(All times are local time – CEST)

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Initialized with GFS 00Z data of the forecast day

Lambert Map Projection

Model will be run for 72-hours into the future with three domains of 9x9km, 3x3km, and 1x1km

Domains for the WRF.

Model Output:

250mb chart

An upper level low pressure system with an associated jet streak will continue move across France today, with isolated showers and storms moving eastward away from Paris. An area of high pressure will set in behind the trough bringing clearer skies for Friday. Another upper level disturbance with an associated weak cold front will move across the area over the weekend bringing a chance of rain and thunderstorms along the frontal boundary.

Cloud Fraction

Looking at the simulated cloud fraction, the estimated coverage of clouds, the skies will begin to clear Thursday into Friday with only low level clouds being present. Into the weekend you can see the weak cold front beginning to move from the northwest to the southeast as cloud coverage increases in the low to mid levels.

3hr Precipitation

The highest levels of rainfall will likely occur east of the venues for the Olympics as the upper level low pressure trough moves westward. Towards the end of the animation you can see the associated cold front moving in with widespread scattered showers. Rainfall rates are estimated below 25mm/3hrs but isolated heavier rain is possible.

Simulated Radar Reflectivity

Looking at the simulated radar generated by the weather model we can see that the storms that have been over Paris over the evening are going to move to the west. However towards the end of the animation you can see the scattered showers moving in over the weekend due to that weak cold front.

Surface Temperature

Surface Wet Bulb Globe Temperature:

In track and field, the Wet Bulb Globe Temperature (WBGT) is used to assess heat stress and ensure athletes' safety during training and competition. Coaches and athletic trainers use WBGT readings to determine the risk of heat-related illnesses. Based on these readings, they might adjust training schedules, modify workout intensity, or implement hydration strategies. The color thresholds are based of of Kestrel Instruments guidelines for the Kestrel 5400 WBGT handheld device.

Bordeaux:

Lyon:

Nantes:

Saint-étienne:

Paris:

Skew-T (Paris)

Skew-T plots help meteorologists by plotting temperature, dew point, and wind data against altitude, providing a visual tool to analyze stability, humidity, and potential for severe weather. By examining the skew-T, meteorologists can identify weather phenomena such as thunderstorms, inversions, and temperature gradients. For Paris, you can see the inverted-V signature.

Inverted V soundings are often associated with high-based thunderstorms, microbursts, and strong winds. The dry air in the lower troposphere mixes with moist air parcels from the storm, causing evaporative cooling and negative buoyancy. This negative buoyancy accelerates the air downward, creating strong downdrafts or dry microbursts. High-based storms generally exhibit stronger winds because the downdrafts have a longer distance to accelerate before reaching the surface.

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