Pandemic Retreats, Last Stands & Shields: Eduvation Insider (July 21, 2020)

In general, CdnPSE was fairly quick to recognize the significant risk of a second pandemic wave this Fall, and most decided to deliver classes predominantly or exclusively online. (Admittedly, the decision was likely made easier by the knowledge that our governments are unlikely to allow large public institutions to fail.)

For a change, Canadian higher ed was the trendsetter, and our American counterparts are just starting to accept the inevitable now, backpedalling on F2F classes for Fall, and postponing NCAA athletics. (Perhaps it’s that Canadian deference to authority, or our relentless tendency to apologize for things that aren’t even our own fault.) 

What is still astonishing to me, though, are the number of Canadian protestors and American politicians who persist in fighting for personal freedoms and choice, like anti-intellectual Cuchulains fighting the waves of a pandemic with mere swords…

Pandemic Momentum

Canadians may underestimate just how fortunate we have been so far, in bringing the pandemic curve under control. Daily case counts by region, province or state obscure the big picture, which should raise concerns as we plan campus reopenings…

The Pandemic is Still Accelerating

COVID19 has now infected almost 15 million people worldwide, killing more than 600,000 of them – and globally, the pandemic is continuing to accelerate. More than 3 million cases were added in the past 2 weeks alone, particularly in the US (884,625), Brazil (495,334), India (420,630), and South Africa (167,578). The US has in fact broken its own daily records 9 times in the past month, peaking at 77,255 new cases on Jul 16. 

Short-lived Successes

The “second wave” was inevitable, but we didn’t see it coming so quickly. Melbourne, Australia, has had to implement fresh restrictions. States including Arizona, California and Texas have reversed course on their reopenings. After almost a month without local transmission, Hong Kong reports the pandemic is again spreading “out of control.” After 5 months without a case in Xinjiang China, scores of fresh cases have arisen and >3,000 people are in quarantine. Just as tourists start to arrive in Europe again, Spain has reported 200 outbreaks (since one of the world’s strictest lockdowns) and France currently has 500 active clusters. As soon as border restrictions ease and economies reopen, infections arrive and start fresh outbreaks. 

Young & “Invincible” 

As more asymptomatic youth aged 17-29 test positive for COVID19, concerns grow that they will fuel fresh outbreaks across the country – and particularly on PSE campuses…

Carefree Twentysomethings

While children and teens account for just 7.5% of COVID19 cases in Canada to date, those in their 20s now account for 14% – almost identical to the proportion in their 30s, 40s, or 50s. As provinces start reopening bars, restaurants, theatres and gyms, new cases among those aged 20-29 have surged in virtually every province. (They are also surging in the southern US.) Since many are asymptomatic, increased testing could be part of the explanation – but experts fear young people have a false sense of “invincibility” and are failing to take precautions as they socialize. They could become a major vector for the second wave. 

Rebels without a Mask

Young people are not the only concern. As regions across Canada announce mandatory face mask orders, a backlash is brewing. On Sunday, protesters gathered to “March to Unmask” in cities across the country, including Vancouver, Edmonton, Calgary, Saskatoon, Regina, Winnipeg, Ottawa, London (ON) and Montreal. Many of them believe that “mixed messaging” about the effectiveness of masks is “propaganda” designed to play upon the fears of the public, and demand “freedom of choice.” Yet a recent national poll found 67% of Canadians support mandatory masks, and just 27% were opposed. (For that matter, a new US poll found just 20% of Americans opposed to mandatory masks.) Nonetheless, Republican governors in Florida and Georgiahave tried to override local mask bylaws.

Academic Retreats

Particularly in Georgia and Florida, where infection rates are skyrocketing and politicians are resisting precautions, institutions are reluctantly backtracking on their ambitious reopening plans for the Fall…

The First Wave of Campuses Fall Back

More and more institutional leaders are realizing the risks of a “mass migration” of students to “congregate living” on their campuses, and concluding it cannot be managed safely in an escalating pandemic. On Monday, half a dozen US institutions reversed previously-announced plans to start the Fall term with at least some students back on campus. Now UC Berkeley, Morehouse C, Grinnell C, Spelman C, Clark Atlanta U, and Miami Dade C will start September entirely online. They join Occidental C, Emory U, Dickinson C and others who announced more online plans last week. “An honest appraisal of the facts compelled us to change course.” Chronicle

More NCAA Conferences Cancel

On Friday, 6 more NCAA athletic conferences announced they were cancelling or postponing the Fall season, including the Colonial Athletic Association, America East, Atlantic 10, East Coast, Commonwealth Coast, and North Eastern Athletic Conferences. (Previously the Ivy League, Patriot League, and New England Small College Athletic Conference cancelled the fall term.) Some have reserved the option to play a truncated season if the pandemic risk has passed, while a few institutions are hoping to find “options” for competition. IHE

Last Stands

Though the general trend line seems inevitable, some institutions remain determined to hold in-person activities this summer, or classes this Fall, no matter what… 

Defiant Convocation at Hillsdale

Hillsdale College, a Christian institution in Michigan, defied state law by holding an in-person graduation ceremony on Saturday, despite surging cases in the state and a ban on gatherings of more than 100 people. The college organized 3 days of dinners, cocktail parties, and music recitals. “This is not an act of defiance… this is a core First Amendment expressive activity,” says a college VP.  IHE

Primarily F2F in Winnipeg

My index of 90 CdnPSE institutions includes just 4 who are still hoping against hope that they can bring the majority of students to campus in September: Providence UC, Redeemer U, Bishop’s U and StFX. Winnipeg’s Canadian Mennonite U isn’t on my list, but is in the news, for the same reason. They intend to offer “a full slate of in-person instruction,” with just a few “virtual extensions to learning for those who request it.” Many of CMU’s classes have <25 students, and they are confident they can implement social distancing protocols. Choirs might have to sing “with their backs to one another… all in different directions.” CBC

To the Death in Texas

Even in Texas, stubbornness has to know some bounds, and there comes a point when institutions know they have to close their campuses. At UT Austin, they have developed a list of criteria to trigger such a decision, including government legislation, hospitals nearing capacity, testing shortages on campus, or (ahem) a student dying of COVID19. As the journalist observes, “no mention was made of what would happen if a staff or faculty member died” – but a custodian died of COVID19 a week after the university published its reopening plans. Texas Tribune

Liability Shields

Institutions are rightly concerned about their liability for COVID19 consequences. Hundreds are being sued in the US for partial tuition refunds from the spring exodus. Insurance companies are unwilling to assume potentially massive risks of reopening campuses this Fall. Some institutions (like StFX) are attempting to control risk by asking students to sign liability waivers. Others are turning to government for indemnification…

Preventing Spring Refunds

North Carolina passed a law on Jul 1 that will protect its colleges from lawsuits demanding tuition refunds and other damages related to COVID19 campus closures. 5 NC universities are currently being sued for reimbursements related to the spring shutdown. (In effect, this is a government defending institutions from the consequences of taking precautions.) IHE

5-Year Shield vs Lawsuits

On the flip-side, Republicans in the US Senate are considering a proposal that would make it significantly more difficult for students or employees to file COVID19 lawsuits against educational institutions, by temporarily raising the bar to “gross negligence or intentional misconduct,” and requiring plaintiffs to provide “clear and convincing evidence.” It would also allow colleges to violate federal labour laws so long as they comply with PHO guidelines, and would cap potential damages. Colleges are asking for protection because they “can’t count on clear, consistent guidance from their local, state and federal authorities,” and therefore cannot defend what decisions could be “reasonable.” Student groups say the Senate proposal is “pretty horrifying.” A law prof worries that broad immunity would say to students, “return to campus at your peril.” IHE

Marketing

Cultural Shifts from COVID19

Juniper Park\TBWA says brands should display empathy and compassion in their pandemic marketing by emulating consumers’ new cultural behaviours. “Kooky Coping” is the use of satire, humour, and quirky social content to escape from depressing news. (They cite the Apple WFH video I shared Friday as a prime example.) “Open Source Generosity” means sharing open-source ideas and materials – which has been exemplified in higher ed. The “Frugal Futures” trend warns that “cautionary spenders will become the norm” and consumers will resent wasteful materialism – a caution for luxury brands, and perhaps some elite MBA advertising. Strategy

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Ken Steele is Canada's leading higher ed futurist and strategic consultant, through his company Eduvation. He delivers virtual presentations and facilitates virtual retreats or workshops centred on emerging trends, enrolment management, pedagogical innovation, and strategic planning. 

Ken has developed 9 new topics specifically to help institutions cope with the post-COVID19 “new normal.”

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