A Pandemic Lament

My Dear Clients and Friends,

You are out of sight, but ever on my mind. My love is blind, and I perceive some of you are abiding in a house of fear still reeling from a surreal shock. With everyday life grinding to a halt without a clear expiration date, many of you are justifiably worried about extreme hardship, loss of normalcy, financial distress, and worst of all someone near you being anointed by the virus. It's natural to feel fear in dark times, but uncertainty has bred confusion, which in turn is breeding all forms of panic from Wall Street to Main Street. This national emergency has eclipsed all others as it ceases to be an emergency for a moment and enters the history books as a challenge for the ages.

I've always wondered why the Spanish flu pandemic of 1918 did not have a stronger impression on the soul of America. It's only mentioned in a few brief sentences or paragraphs in the history books. Perhaps because it was a crime under the Sedition Act to say or publish anything negative that would affect the war effort. Newspaper editors killed stories or rewrote them with deadly consequences. It killed 50 million people worldwide, and an estimated 675,000 people in the United States. You need to read the truth, not fake news.

This pandemic presents an existential, social, and economic threat. People will suffer and die in the days, weeks, and months ahead. The CDC has estimated the worst case to be as many as 200,000 or more Americans dead. Thankfully, mitigation efforts have worked successfully to reduce the worst case estimate, but its not over yet. The virus will unleash a human tragedy and a river of tears from the loved ones who survive. The global economy has collapsed and the future has been mortgaged. Economists estimate the unemployment rate could range from 20 to 40 percent, and some market observers believe the most brutal market crash is yet to come. The social consequences will have a long tail of recovery marked with despair, addictions, and lost opportunity to name a few. Least among all of these pains but on full display is the disruption in every walk of life. Imagine for example the huge disappointment for Olympians who have been training for years only to have this summer's event postponed.

The pandemic has birthed extraordinary restraints on liberty, from international travel bans to state and local orders that businesses shut down, individuals avoid large assemblies and even stay home, and infected patients remain under quarantine. Depending on the pandemic’s progress, even more draconian measures may result as political leaders adopt “zero tolerance” policies so as to avoid criticism that they should have done more to save lives. All this goes against the American spirit whose people treasure freedom and their constitutional rights. The protests are starting to erupt over the right of the people to peaceably assemble while the government promotes the general welfare. Government has extraordinary powers during times of emergency, but it also has its limits and even the best orders to protect public health rely on whether they are well accepted by public opinion.

Let me try to put this pandemic emergency in perspective and help you understand we are not the only generation to endure what we are experiencing now. The plague of Justinian in 541 AD killed an estimated 30 to 50 million people, perhaps half the world's population at the time. The Black Death of 1347 claimed an astonishing 200 million lives over four years. The great London plague of 1665 killed 100,000. The New World was ravaged by European smallpox with an estimated 10 million death toll. Only God knows the number of souls that will be taken worldwide in this outbreak, but whatever the number the consequence is death on a staggering scale and manifest sadness from the multitudes will linger like the melancholy notes of Vivaldi’s Nisi Dominis - Cum Dederit.

Now that you know the truth and order of magnitude of the problem, we need a little Bob Marley to "emancipate your mind." Those fans of the late Oxford don J.R.R. Tolkien should watch the hero Aragon's battle speech at the Black Gate if you need strong medicine for this war. Yes, war is not too melodramatic to describe it. We have been attacked by an invisible enemy, fear and anxiety abounds, the struggle will be sustained, supply lines of life saving equipment and therapeutics are presently inadequate, and resources may diminish as the casualties spike.

If you are feeling anxious, consider the hardships endured by past generations and some of our ancestors during the wars and crises of past centuries. The stiff-upper-lip Brits endured severe danger as bombs dropped on their homes in London for three and a half months during the Blitz. If you've ever been shot at, bombed, and mortared you know what anxious really feels like and every day you’re not in a conflict zone is a good day. Perspective. Courage. Stay cool. Staying at home, wearing a mask, and keeping your distance when going out in order to combat the coronavirus can't compare in terms of sacrifices that others have made over the arc of history. We walk in the shadow of those past sacrifices and essential workers on the frontlines can live up to this legacy now. Be encouraged: You can avoid the virus, prevent its spread, and do what you need to do for as long as it takes.

Please quell your criticisms of our public leaders until this emergency is over. Cooperative politics should remain de rigueur until November's election. Soon our leaders will have to make the toughest moral decisions balancing continued lockdowns at the risk of destroying the economy against opening the economy, schools, and large events with the sword of Damocles hanging over America. As a sophisticated observer of government, I'm pleased that in my home state of Indiana, the Governor, the Lt. Governor, the Health Commissioner, cabinet officials, the Speaker of the House, the President Pro Tem, the Chief Justice, and our U.S. Senators have risen to the occasion like other leaders around the U.S. and provided decisive leadership with clear communication in an extraordinary time. A hue and cry will go up in certain quarters about wasted time and inadequate preparation, but that day is not now, nor even weeks from now. But most assuredly in the fullness of time our leaders will stand for election and the will of the people shall prevail. Remember, the great Winston Churchill won WWII yet was ignominiously dispatched from public life (for a time) by a war-fatigued electorate. The public is fickle, defeat can happen to the best leaders, and voters will conduct a referendum on our government’s preparation and response.

The federal government is on the correct heading providing emergency relief of all forms and stateside support to governors and mayors. The public sector has offered guidance to contain and control the harm until therapies are widely available, spread a safety net to workers and businesses, offered monetary stabilization and regulatory relief. More interstate and intrastate cooperation will be necessary between governments, businesses, and hospital networks to mobilize timely testing and relief from one peaking hot spot to another until herd immunity or a vaccine arrive. The government's response will not be efficient, and the audit exceptions will be lengthy just like after the events of 911 and the stimulus following the 2008 financial crisis. Government doesn't have anywhere near the money, speed, or creativity to stay ahead of a crisis of this magnitude, but government deserves credit for backing a willing private sector with public resources committed to victory.

Executives are struggling to keep their companies afloat and their workers employed. Give corporate America a break until the emergency has ceased; there is no need for corporate scapegoats at the moment. A day of reckoning will come for CEOs and boards just like the country's political leadership. Now is not the time to cast judgement. The decisions of private sector leaders about whether to take profit, not be selfish in a moment of need, and how they take responsibility for their stock and flock will both reveal and cast their true character in stone. Remember, it's about helping people with problems in this extraordinary moment; everything else will take care of itself in time. Don’t lose your head. Cool, calm, and collected is what you need. If you don't act wisely in the best interest of all stakeholders, you will be replaced by rank-and-file opinion and angry shareholders once the situation stabilizes. Bankruptcy petitions will clog the court dockets soon. It’s no time for your business to die.

What's the good news? This pandemic will not be a mass extinction event like ones that have visited earth eons before from cosmic disaster or volcanic fallout. Remember, 80% of the cases will not result in hospitalization or loss of life. The United States is the world's largest economy to scale solutions, it is one of the most innovative scientifically, and better organized to deal with this challenge. The American people are working overtime to avoid the worst-case scenario by observing disciplined social distancing while developing treatments, medical equipment, tests, and a vaccine. Businesses are offering economic relief in the form of voluntary leave, pay for contractors and vendors, work-at-home flexibility, and donations to affected communities are enormous and inspiring.

The wealth and productivity that has been erased will come back. It may take twenty-four months to realize full recovery and some businesses may not recover at all, but as surely as the economy and markets fell, they shall rise again. In the meantime, the government loans and social safety nets will be fully funded to take care of those who find themselves without income. Money is useful – it pays for the essentials and can buy a lot of nice things and experiences -- it also comes and it goes. You can't take it with you. Hopefully, financial distress is only temporary and will pass. You’ll earn, inherit, and realize more in the future. Market volatility will cease when the virus that caused this panic is under control. In time, the economic damage will be in the rearview mirror, markets will be up, and unemployment will be down. Money is not everything. Remember, there are certain things that money can't buy, which are more precious and cherished.

Now, take a deep breath. Instead of imagining you're a detainee or Bill Murray’s character in the movie Groundhog Day, imagine your yacht crashed on the rocks and you're marooned on a sun-bleached, Mediterranean island filled with the best food, views, and vino in the world. You can't go anywhere for two months, but you know your rescue will come eventually because you’re in the Med. What would you do in the meantime? Pause now to make a list of things that will make you stronger and better.

Those of you who are not acquainted with the Pale Rider, don’t have enormousness reserves of mental strength or high thresholds for pain, here are a few resiliency tips from a lifetime of experience that work for me:

·        Ignore "What if?" When the pressure's on, stop triggering an onslaught of stress by imagining everything that could go wrong. Resist the temptation to see the worst in the present situation.

·        Connect past experiences. Although extraordinary, chances are you can find something about your current situation that links back to experiences you've been through before. Leveraging past experiences and a sense of familiarity has an awesome effect on calming your nerves and giving you confidence to solve a problem similar to one you have solved in the past.

·        Embrace cascading positivity versus spiraling negativity. The skill here is emphasizing the positive and focusing on what you can control. It’s about finding one positive in the situation and using it as a toehold to find greater reserves of positives. This is infinitely better than the opposite of spiraling out of control imagining one negative after another.

·        Focus on the process, not the outcome. Focus on the process as a comfort in the midst of what seems like perilous chaos. One step at a time will add up to yards and miles; just focus on the one next step and forget the finish line until you reach it.

·        When fear starts taking over, ask if your thoughts are helping. If you're in a panic about what might happen, it’s probably not helping. There is a quote from Rudyard Kipling inscribed above the entrance to Wimbledon's Center Court that all the contenders must pass under before competing for the Championship. It reads, "If you can meet with triumph and disaster, and treat those two imposters just the same . . .” Disconnect from your fear, remember much depends on your perceptions, and you'll be Zen like.

·        Don't forget to eat right with a proper Mediterranean diet, stay hydrated, get plenty of sleep, and play lots of tennis. Mix up your physical activity too with a diversity of strength, cardio, flexibility, balance, and agility exercises.

I've always regarded the hallmark of a civilized society as what it is willing to do for its weakest members – in this case we are like knights on the pilgrim road defending older Americans and those poor in health. It's heartening that so many are sacrificing so much to save the few at highest risk. Do your bit for the public good now and in the months to come, especially when the economy opens up so we don't backslide on gains won at a massive expense. Take a master class from the great Greek statesmen Pericles who said, "The bravest are surely those who have the clearest vision of what is before them, glory and danger alike, and yet notwithstanding … meet it." You'll feel good about finding a way to give back or help those with the most need at the moment. The solutions rest in our body politic and all the people residing in it must strictly obey and comply with the guidance issued by public health officials. This will involve sacrifice and discipline of marathon length, not a sprint of but a few weeks.

If you are in a bunker full of guns and food, good for you. That's not my style. Difficult times are still ahead for sure, but I'd rather ride them out with just a pistol in a classier setting living a life of distinction. Should God have no more purpose for me and take my soul, then I'll pray to go out in unparalleled style. Whether you abide in a big house, a small house, or no house, all you need is a good table to sit at, a good bed to sleep in, a good book, a great view, and maybe a nice bottle of wine. Don't let your inner dirty hippy take over and sit around in your pajamas all day. In my case, the inner hippy is more a mix of an ancient historian, gypsy fashionista, hard rocker, intrepid explorer, philosopher-king, poet unexalted, renaissance man, and tennis hippy. Anyhow, my point is that while your inner hippy may have lots of time to contemplate the sound of silence, seek serenity, yearn for a change, value what’s important, and discern new insights into your soul … don't let this pandemic cause you to lose your sense of temporal purpose. Instead, find it.

I hope that this emergency will make us better than we are, stronger as a nation, more united, and that those conditions will endure and not fade away as they did after the last moment of national unity. If we are lucky, maybe we will fall back on old ways, simpler methods, more innocent and infinitely classier times when people knew how to behave themselves and knew how to dress. In the meantime, perseverance in the face of adversity is invariably matched with the glory of result. What is the value of one human life? Now and especially in the second wave is not the time to suffer battle fatigue, to forego personal responsibility in preventing infection, and to act dumb or dangerously. History tells us that most people died in the second wave of the 1918 pandemic, not its initial onset.

The worst and the best are yet to come. Herrick said, "Conquer we shall, but first we must contend, 'Tis not the strife that crowns us, but the end." Now is the time to walk with a lion’s heart. Take solace in the ancient text that reminds us to "be strong and courageous. Do not be cowardly or fearful, for the Lord your God is with you in all things, wherever you go." Josh. 1:9  "Let us run with endurance the race that is set before us." Heb. 12:1. 

Love is all around you. Take comfort and abide in the house of hope. Rainbows do appear in the dark. May you have peace, God bless you and keep you.

Very truly your counsel and friend,

Mark Shublak