With the pandemic far from over, are some sectors already seeing a revival?

Earlier last week, the Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy came up with a worrying statistic: An estimated 6.6 million white collar workers lost their jobs between May and August, including engineers, physicians, teachers, accountants, among many others. 

But as businesses, schools and educational institutions begin to re-open, Indians are growing keen to step out, not just for work but even for entertainment experiences. With professionals and organisations having factored in the challenges arising from this crisis, are some green shoots beginning to emerge?

LinkedIn’s latest Workforce Confidence Index attempts to answer that. The index - based on a survey of 3,377 professionals in India during August and September - gauged sentiments of individuals around their job security, financial and career outlook, while also analysing their expectations for the near future.

At least a third of employees in consumer goods, construction, education and corporate services sectors believe job openings will pick up in the next six months. With a gradual resurgence in demand, workers in industries including consumer goods, manufacturing and finance, have also grown more optimistic about the near term outlook of their employers since July. Those working in areas such as healthcare and education, which have been seeing strong performance during the lockdown, reported no change. 

I recently interviewed Dr Manish Kumar, MD & CEO of National Skill Development Corporation, who said areas such as logistics, BFSI and even travel and tourism are seeing a pick up in demand and hiring, which one did not expect. But now as restrictions have begun to lift, there’s a need for more workers.

According to HR expert Prabir Jha, manufacturing and healthcare are both needed to fight the current crisis and boost macroeconomic indicators. Fundamental demand in the consumer goods category, meanwhile, is inescapable and an indication of the growing resilience of the consumers. Sectors such as construction, which are labour intensive and need interface with multiple suppliers, have obviously been impacted. 

There is some uptick visible in last-mile delivery, ecommerce-led logistics, cybersecurity, IOT, executive and leadership coach Harsh Johari says. “Mass employment restoration, though, is still some way off.”

A variation in sentiments is also visible across job functions, the index finds. 

Senior leaders - VPs, CXOs, owners and partners - were found to be more optimistic compared to non-managers and entry-level workers on their financial as well as career outlook. Nearly one-third of them anticipate an increase in their income in the next six months compared to a share of 22% among the junior cohort. Around 72% of those in leadership positions also expect their companies to be better off in the near term, against 55% of those in non-managerial roles. 

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According to Jha, there’s a better understanding of the strategic levers at the higher levels, as also a slightly longer term perspective which builds a greater sense of resilience. There’s also a better acceptance of the fact that the challenges are here to stay and changes to businesses strategy and structures are in play to respond to them. But sometimes, their inability or unwillingness to communicate this well adds to the sense of pessimism down the chain.

In terms of remunerations, senior levels are more incentivised for business performance, but in bad times, more of their pay is also at risk. But even as next year’s remunerations may continue to be modest for all, Jha says junior employees may have slightly better hikes as companies would need to pay more “fair” revisions having factored in the job losses. Eventually, annual bonuses will be a function of how well the current fiscal finishes.

“While success for some companies is still about survival, a lot of companies have taken this time to rethink their business model and pivot. As the economy continues to open post the unlock, some companies are better placed now than they were a few months earlier. However, it is far from over as yet,” Johari says.

Which sectors are seeing signs of revival? How can professionals prepare themselves amid the ongoing volatility? Share your comments below.