This pandemic is anything but predictable

I have been a distance runner for years. There was a time in my youth where I really disliked long runs. Whenever I started, I would begin thinking about how far I had to go, and it would seem just too long. This was particularly true when I trained for a marathon. It was one thing to run a few miles, but a training run of 20 miles sounded crazy to me. However, someone wise once told me to focus my mind on shorter intervals within the long runs and not worry so much about the overall distance. In other words, thinking about finishing the next mile is much easier than thinking about the next 19. That approach made a huge difference for me and I believe it has applications well beyond running.?

We’ve been running this marathon of COVID-19 for nearly two years and are all tired and ready to take a break. Last week, just when it looked like we were turning the corner with our current surge and coming down on our inpatient census, we jumped again.??As I write this note, we are close to 500 total COVID-19 inpatients across Spectrum Health. Of course, this is hard for everyone… the patients, their families and our team members that care for them. While we don’t know what tomorrow brings, there are still promising signs that the situation will improve in the coming days and weeks. Most notably, our percent positivity continues to slowly decline in Spectrum Health West Michigan (not yet for Spectrum Health Lakeland) and the near exponential increase in daily admissions we saw in November has plateaued for the past two weeks. While we still have a lot of daily COVID admissions, they are not growing in number each day. If history is any guide, this should mean that we will see a decline in our admissions and census in the very near future.?

With all of this said, COVID-19 has proven to be an elusive enemy. Just when we think we know what comes next, we get thrown a curve ball. The omicron variant is looming and will likely be dominant in most of the U.S. in a matter of weeks based on the latest CDC guidance. There are studies coming out every day about this new variant with information that will help guide public policy and help us better prepare for and treat our community. We will continue to learn more and more about omicron’s transmissibility, susceptibility to immunity from vaccination and prior infection, and the severity of disease it causes. The two facts that are becoming increasingly clear are that

1. It is more transmissible than delta, and
2. Vaccines still protect against severe disease and boosters even more so. We still need more data to understand the severity of disease caused by omicron.

If we continue with the analogy of the pandemic being similar to a marathon, perhaps it will help to focus more on the mile markers than the finish line. As much as we all want it to be over, we should be proud of what we have done for our friends, neighbors and families for the past 21 months. I think it is also helpful to recognize, we made it through last month and we’ll make it through this month. It will get better, as all surges do, and we will celebrate the downswing and return to (at least more) normalcy when it does.