Pakistan’s Power Generation and Transmission System: A Data-Driven Analysis

Pakistan’s power sector has been a critical pillar for the country’s economic and industrial growth, but it continues to face significant challenges in ensuring a stable, reliable, and cost-efficient supply of electricity. This article provides an in-depth analysis of Pakistan’s power generation and transmission system, based on the latest available data.

Power Generation Capacity and Sources

As of 2023, Pakistan has an installed power generation capacity of approximately 43,775 MW. The country relies on a diverse mix of energy sources for electricity generation, though thermal sources dominate the energy mix. The key breakdown of power generation sources is as follows:

• Thermal (Fossil Fuels): Around 62% of the power generation capacity comes from thermal sources, including natural gas, coal, and furnace oil. These include:

Natural Gas: Approximately 25% of electricity is generated from natural gas.

Coal: With the induction of coal plants such as Sahiwal, Port Qasim, and Thar, coal-fired capacity has surged, now accounting for nearly 12%.

Furnace Oil: Although diminishing due to cost and environmental concerns, furnace oil still contributes 15%.

• Hydroelectric Power: Hydropower remains one of Pakistan’s most vital sources, contributing 27% of the generation capacity. Major plants include Tarbela, Mangla, and Ghazi Barotha.
• Nuclear Energy: Pakistan’s nuclear plants (Chashma, Karachi) provide 6% of the total capacity, adding clean and reliable baseload power to the grid.
• Renewables (Wind and Solar): Renewable energy, though growing, contributes about 5% of the total generation, with most of it coming from wind farms in Sindh and solar power in Punjab.

Despite this capacity, the actual generation fluctuates, primarily due to fuel availability, water levels in dams, and plant outages. In the fiscal year 2022-2023, the peak demand hovered around 28,000 MW, while actual generation frequently fell short, leading to power shortages.

Challenges in Power Generation

1. Fuel Shortages: Natural gas reserves are depleting, leading to import dependency for liquefied natural gas (LNG). Furnace oil is expensive, and coal imports have faced logistical challenges.
2. Seasonal Variations: Hydropower generation is seasonal, with peak output during the summer when water flow is high and a drastic reduction in winter.
3. Reliability of Renewables: Wind and solar energy, though promising, are intermittent and not yet supported by large-scale energy storage solutions.

Power Transmission Network

Pakistan’s power transmission network is managed by the National Transmission and Despatch Company (NTDC), which operates a high-voltage grid system, and 10 regional DISCOs (Distribution Companies) responsible for power distribution.

The transmission network consists of:

• 500 kV lines: 7,700 km
• 220 kV lines: 11,500 km
• 132 kV lines: 10,000 km

Despite significant investments in expanding the grid, the transmission system still faces the following challenges:

1. Transmission Losses: Transmission and distribution (T&D) losses in Pakistan stand at around 17-19%, one of the highest in the region. This is due to outdated infrastructure, technical inefficiencies, and electricity theft.
2. Capacity Constraints: The transmission network has limited capacity to handle peak loads, leading to bottlenecks. This results in load shedding even when sufficient generation capacity is available.
3. Outdated Grid Infrastructure: Much of the grid infrastructure is aging and prone to frequent breakdowns. This has resulted in system collapses and blackouts, especially during high demand periods.
4. Geographical Disparities: The transmission system is unevenly distributed, with urban centers like Lahore, Karachi, and Islamabad receiving more reliable power, while rural areas face chronic outages and low voltage issues.

Future Outlook and Recommendations

To improve Pakistan’s power generation and transmission system, the government, regulatory authorities, and private sector must work together on several key initiatives:

1. Diversifying the Energy Mix

• Expanding Renewable Energy: Pakistan’s goal is to reach 30% of its energy from renewables by 2030. Investment in wind, solar, and hydropower projects is essential to reduce dependence on fossil fuels and to meet the growing demand.
• Boosting Nuclear and Hydropower: Increasing the share of nuclear power and expanding hydropower plants like Diamer-Bhasha Dam will provide cleaner and more reliable electricity.

2. Reducing Transmission Losses

Upgrading the transmission network with modern technologies such as smart grids and advanced metering infrastructure (AMI) can help reduce losses. Implementing real-time monitoring and predictive maintenance will further enhance reliability.

3. Energy Storage Solutions

With renewable energy expected to play a larger role, investment in energy storage systems like battery storage or pumped hydro is crucial to store excess renewable energy and ensure its availability during peak demand.

4. Policy and Regulatory Support

Reforming energy tariffs to make renewables more attractive, improving the governance of DISCOs, and tackling electricity theft through stricter enforcement and better technology will drive efficiency across the sector.

5. Public-Private Partnerships (PPPs)

Encouraging PPP models for the expansion of power plants and transmission lines will mobilize the necessary investment while reducing the burden on government finances.

Conclusion

Pakistan’s power generation and transmission system faces several challenges but also holds immense potential. With a diversified energy mix, modernization of the grid, and strategic investments in technology, the country can overcome these obstacles and achieve energy security. A sustainable, efficient, and reliable power sector is not just a necessity for Pakistan’s economic development but also a driver of social progress.