Pakistan’s Political Instability Worsens Economic Crisis

?(Today, my article published in the Pakistan Today.?It is impartial analysis, as some readers misunderstand that I am against Imran Khan).

By Sajjad Shaukat

Political instability and economic instability are interrelated, while same is the case of stability, in relation to any country.

Since April 9, 2022 when the former Prime Minister Imran Khan and Chairman of the PTI was ousted through vote of no-confidence motion, passed in the National Assembly by the then joint opposition-an alliance of the PDM, following the order of the Supreme Court of Pakistan, the country has been facing political instability which is rapidly worsening economic crisis.

This year, Imran Khan’s public rallies in various cities, “Haqeeqi Azadi March” (Real Freedom March) on May 25, his return from Islamabad without taking the date of elections, threatening the government for another long march reached Rawalpindi on November 26--his first public appearance since being wounded in a murder attempt earlier this month, called off his protest march to Islamabad, saying, he feared it would cause havoc in the country, announced that his party would resign from the provincial assemblies of Punjab and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP) in a new bid to push for early elections.

In his various public rallies and statements, former Premier Imran Khan has almost repeated similar contradictory approach. Criticising his rival politicians, while targeting the Pakistan Army and its former army chief, Gen. Qamar Javed Bajwa, using terms ‘establishment’ or ‘neutrals’, He allegedly stated: “A major international conspiracy was carried out against his regime’s removal and this country”, through America’s threatening diplomatic cypher.

Referring to Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, he elaborated: “One Mir Jaffer has been imposed on us via a conspiracy. Sometimes, ex-PM Khan appreciated the army and sometimes, targeted it indirectly.

Khan also held the neutrals responsible for present political instability and severe economic crisis, and accused the ruling coalition of pitting him against Pakistan Army.

The military spokesperson of ISPR, Maj-Gen. (Now Lt. Gen.) Babar Iftikhar indicated that no ‘conspiracy’ was made and no diplomatic ‘cypher’ was issued by a foreign country, as pointed out by PM Khan.

PDM parties’ leaders also challenged the authenticity of the ‘threat letter’—repeatedly said that the letter was a ploy of Khan to misguide the people to increase the vote bank. They added that Khan is inciting the people against Army.

Regrettably, under the cover of so-called democracy, some irresponsible leaders of the PTI and those of the ruling parties have changed their political differences into political enmity.

At this critical hour, Pakistan’s armed forces have been coping with internal and external challenges of grave nature in order to maintain the security of the country. While, in one way or the other, Indian fanatic rulers are also escalating tensions with Pakistan. Undoubtedly, these forces have been fighting a different war. In this respect, Gen. Qamar Javed Bajwa had repeatedly stated that Pakistan is facing the challenge of hybrid war.

Now, the deposed PM Khan and PTI’s workers have been distorting Army’s image in such a way that general masses have forgotten the sacrifices and services of the armed forces.?

Recall armed forces’ innumerable services and sacrifices especially of Army such as the resettlement of the Internally Displaced Persons during the Swat and Malakand military operations, counter-insurgency operations and restoration of law and order on many occasions—during catastrophic periods—floods, earthquakes, coronavirus pandemic, locusts’ attacks etc.—also giving matching response to Indian shelling at the Line of Control and to stop infiltration of terrorists inside Pakistan from Afghanistan.

While, Pakistan’s armed forces and primary intelligence agency ISI have successfully broken the backbone of the foreign-backed terrorists. Peace has been restored in the provinces of Balochistan, KP and Karachi, including other vulnerable regions. Pakistan Army has not only been successful in uprooting the separatist elements from Balochistan, but also contributed a lot in socio-economic development of the province.

Regarding Pakistan’s present deteriorated situation, Ian Bremmer wrote in Time Magazine on November 15, 2022: “Pakistan’s politics were plenty toxic…When Khan [government] was removed…he claimed Pakistan’s military and its friends in Washington wanted to silence him. He then kicked off a series of protest marches that have drawn massive crowds. In October, Khan insinuated that the army had killed a journalist [Arshad Sharif], an uncharacteristically blunt frontal assault on Pakistan’s army, and the country’s head of military intelligence felt compelled to call an unprecedented public press conference to deny the charge. Officials in the current government, led by Shehbaz Sharif, accused Khan of terrorism, illegally receiving money from foreigners, and other forms of financial fraud.”

Pakistan Muslim League–Nawaz (PML-N) leader and former federal finance minister Miftah Ismail on November 27, this year pointed out: “Pakistan is on the verge of default…the No.1 priority of Finance Minister Ishaq Dar shouldn’t be to make imports cheaper & export harder…even after paying the December Sukuk bonds, the risk of bankruptcy does not lessen. PTI government did not follow the agreement with IMF, which is why the risk of default increased…exports, fell by 38% between 2013 and 2018 led to the second largest current account deficit”.

In fact, Pakistan is facing multi-faceted crises and challenges like corruption, inflation, soaring prices of commodities, energy-shortage, lack of investment, upsurge of the US dollar, increase in oil prices, load shedding, inability of the importers to open letters of credit (LC) due to lack of dollar etc. and continued dependence upon the US-led developed countries, IMF and World Bank for financial aid. And the foreign exchange reserves of the State Bank of Pakistan have fallen to around $6.7 billion–the lowest since June 25, 2021.

Particularly, Imran Khan who has repeatedly stated that he wants to save the country from the coming default and economic crisis is himself creating such a drastic situation, as his intermittent protest calls, public rallies, online video address to his supporters have shown.?

Notably, in an interview with a private TV channel, President Dr Arif Alvi on November 7, 2022 disclosed: “Since Army leadership has distanced itself from political affairs, the responsibility of politicians has increased to hold talks and help stabilise the country. I have also conveyed this to Finance Minister Senator Ishaq Dar in my meeting to help initiate talks for possibility of early elections. I gave him some suggestions.”

Meanwhile, Imran Khan and some analysts opine that Pakistan will become Sri Lanka. I pray that this civil war-like phenomenon must not happen.

I request these rival politicians and especially new Chief of Army Staff Gen. Asim Munir to play his role play in defusing the present situation, and?to avoid making Pakistan another Myanmar?where Gen. Min Aung Hlaing who seized power on February 1, 2021 after the military toppled the civilian government led by Aung San Suu Kyi. Myanmar’s military junta is now facing fierce resistance from various joint ethnic groups.

But in case of Pakistan, some third elements such as Indian intelligence agency RAW or some anti-Pakistan foreign entities which are manipulating the country’s chaotic circumstances can again make assassination attempt on Imran Khan to widen the gulf between Army and PDM on one side and the PTI supporters on the other. These external elements also want to create drastic situation so that martial law may be imposed and civil war may start in many cities of the country, particularly in the KP where in former tribal areas, people possess heavy weapons and arms. In fact, it is the only nuclear country in the Islamic World. Hence, these agencies want to destabilize it.

So, serious talks must be held between the government led by PM Shehbaz and the PTI, while the ruling alliance must also announce early elections after settling various issues with the PTI such as caretaker setup, Khan’s demand to change the chief election commissioner etc. Khan also needs compromise. Here, question also arises that after the general elections; defeated political entity can accuse the winning entity of rigging in the polls and can launch a movement against the new elected government across the country or on provincial level. Therefore, current extreme situation can be created again.??

At this critical hour, the leaders of government and the opposition, including media owners must sign a charter of unity which is essential to pull the country out of the ongoing serious crises which are rapidly creating political instability, giving a greater setback to country’s fragile economy.

Sajjad Shaukat writes on international affairs and is author of the book: US vs Islamic Militants, Invisible Balance of Power: Dangerous Shift in International Relations and can be reached at: [email protected]