- Pakistan's merchandise exports rose by 14.11% to $7.87 billion in the first quarter of the current fiscal year, up from $6.90 billion last year, driven by improved international orders and exchange rate stability. In September, exports reached $2.81 billion, a 13.52% increase from the previous year, although month-on-month growth was just 1.56%.
- The IRSA Advisory Committee (IAC) has projected a 19% water shortage for Rabi 2024-25, running from October 1, 2024, to March 31, 2025, with a total availability of 73.43 MAF.
- The Punjab government has announced the establishment of 13 additional model bazaars in various cities to enhance public welfare by providing essential commodities at prices lower than government-notified rates. Currently, 36 model bazaars operate in 24 districts across the province.
- Pakistan's central and provincial governments signed the National Fiscal Pact under the IMF's guidance to combat corruption and allow banks access to high-level public officials' wealth statements from grade 17-22.
- Local refineries have tied the signing of upgrade and escrow agreements with OGRA to the resolution of critical issues affecting the sector ahead of the October 22 deadline. Key concerns include the recent change by the Federal Board of Revenue (FBR) classifying petroleum products as exempt supplies rather than taxable.
- OPEC+ ministers have decided to maintain their current oil output policy, with plans to begin increasing production from December, while stressing the need for some members to implement further cuts to offset overproduction. Oil prices rose on Wednesday due to concerns about potential supply disruptions from escalating conflicts in the Middle East, despite significant increases in U.S. crude inventories limiting further gains.
AGRI-UPDATES - COMMODITIES, POLICY & DEVELOPMENTS
- IRSA Projects 19% Water Shortage for Rabi 2024-25: The IRSA Advisory Committee (IAC) has projected a 19% water shortage for Rabi 2024-25, running from October 1, 2024, to March 31, 2025, with a total availability of 73.43 MAF. Punjab is allocated 36.66 MAF (31.55% share) but will face a 14% shortage, Sindh is allocated 33.26 MAF (25.66% share) with a 23% shortage, Balochistan will receive 2.69 MAF (1.59% share) and face a 41% shortage, while KP will get 0.82 MAF (0.95% share) and 15% additional water. [BR] [Dawn] [ET]
- Cotton Spot Rate Rises to Rs 17,800: The spot rate for cotton rose by Rs 200, closing at Rs 17,800/maund. Cotton prices in Sindh range from Rs 17,400-Rs 17,700/maund (Phutti: Rs 7,400-Rs 8,200/40 kg), while in Punjab, prices are between Rs 17,800 and Rs 18,000/maund (Phutti: Rs 7,500-Rs 8,500). In Balochistan, cotton is priced between Rs 17,400 and Rs 17,700/maund (Phutti: Rs 7,200-Rs 9,100), and Balochi Cotton ranges from Rs 19,900-Rs 20,200/maund. [BR]
- Punjab Government to Launch 13 New Model Bazaars: The Punjab government has announced the establishment of 13 additional model bazaars in various cities to enhance public welfare by providing essential commodities at prices lower than government-notified rates. Currently, 36 model bazaars operate in 24 districts across the province, with new ones planned for Muzaffargarh, Mandi Bahauddin, Okara, Narowal, Chiniot, Khanewal, Chunian, Pattoki, Wazirabad, Sharagpur, Bhalwal, Jhelum, and Jaranwala. [Dawn]
- Cattle Traders Kidnapped Near Fazalwah Headworks: Two cattle traders were allegedly kidnapped near Fazalwah Headworks in Bhong police limits on Wednesday, with one later released. Naeem and Farooq were intercepted after purchasing animals; the suspects tied up Farooq and took Naeem with them. Police are investigating the incident, and efforts are underway to recover Naeem. [Dawn]
- Pakistan's Textile Exports Show Mixed Trends: Pakistan's textile and apparel export profile has significantly improved over the past two years, with high value-added (HVA) segments like ready-made garments showing robust growth despite challenges such as rising production costs and price pressures. However, a concerning trend has emerged, as working capital financing for HVA textile and apparel industries is declining, while low value-added (LVA) segments are showing some resilience. [BR]
- SDPI Advocates Lifting Ban on GMO Soybean Imports: The Sustainable Development Policy Institute (SDPI) is advocating for the lifting of Pakistan's ban on genetically modified (GMO) soybean imports and is urging quick approval from the Special Investment Facilitation Council (SIFC). Concerns persist among ministries, particularly regarding the UN's stance on GMO soybeans. Some officials are pushing for imports despite prior rejections of similar proposals. [ET]
ENERGY - WEATHER, WATER & POWER
- MPASS Launches E-voucher Subsidies: The Ministry of Poverty Alleviation and Social Safety (MPASS) has decided to provide direct subsidies to protected domestic electricity consumers via E-vouchers. This decision follows a Benazir Income Support Fund (BISP) letter dated September 18, 2024, regarding the distribution of these subsidies. [BR]
- Refineries Demand Solutions Before Agreements: Local refineries have tied the signing of upgrade and escrow agreements with OGRA to the resolution of critical issues affecting the sector ahead of the October 22 deadline. Key concerns include the recent change by the Federal Board of Revenue (FBR) classifying petroleum products as exempt supplies rather than taxable, as outlined in the Finance Act, 2024. [The News]
- Sindh High Court Bans Tree Cutting: The Sindh High Court has prohibited provincial authorities from cutting down trees across the province, citing the potential disastrous environmental consequences, particularly in urban areas like Karachi. In a written order, a two-judge bench emphasized that any necessary tree removal must be accompanied by a plan for relocation and requires permission from the relevant district's sessions judge. The details submitted by Sepa indicated that 3,802 trees were cut down in the course of the Bus Rapid Transit project in Karachi. [Dawn]
- Government Targets ML-1 Financing Before SCO Summit: The government aims to finalize the financing agreement for the Mainline-1 (ML-1) railway track from Karachi to Peshawar before Chinese Prime Minister Li Qiang's visit to Islamabad on October 14-15 for the SCO summit. Planning Minister Ahsan Iqbal urged the ministries of railways and finance to conclude the financing terms with China within the next few days. [Dawn]
PAKISTAN - ECONOMICS, POLITICS & SECURITY
- Pakistan Signs National Fiscal Pact: Pakistan's central and provincial governments signed the National Fiscal Pact under the IMF's guidance to combat corruption and allow banks access to high-level public officials' wealth statements. Sindh signed the pact after the September 30 deadline. The four provincial finance ministers and the federal finance minister have also agreed that the federal and provincial governments will issue regulations to grant banks access to the wealth statements of high-level provincial public officials serving in grades 17 to 22. [ET]
- Pakistan's Exports: Pakistan's merchandise exports rose by 14.11% to $7.87 billion in the first quarter of the current fiscal year, up from $6.90 billion last year, driven by improved international orders and exchange rate stability. In September, exports reached $2.81 billion, a 13.52% increase from the previous year, although month-on-month growth was just 1.56%. [BR] [Dawn] [ET]
- FBR Unifies IT Leadership Roles: The Federal Board of Revenue (FBR) has launched a transformation plan that merges the positions of Member (Information Technology) and Member (Digital Initiatives) into Director General (Information Technology and Digital Transformation), who will report to the Member Inland Revenue (Operations). [BR]
- Government Raises Rs 244 Billion in T-Bills: The government raised Rs 244 billion through the auction of Market Treasury Bills, slightly below the Rs 250 billion target, with strong overall bids totaling Rs 860 billion. The six-month cut-off yield was set at 14.398%, the lowest since April 2022, while the 12-month yield was 13.735%, also the lowest since April 2022. [The News]
- Pakistan's Reserves Rise to $10.7 Billion: Pakistan's foreign exchange reserves have risen to $10.7 billion following the receipt of the first tranche of a $7 billion loan from the International Monetary Fund (IMF), according to State Bank of Pakistan Governor Jameel Ahmad. This increase, from $9.53 billion on September 20, is sufficient to cover more than two months of imports and has boosted market confidence by helping to meet import and other obligations. [The News]
- Nawaz Sharif Accuses Imran Khan of Inciting Conflict: Nawaz Sharif accused PTI leader Imran Khan, currently in Adiala Jail, of inciting conflict between Punjab and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, likening his actions to historical invaders. Meanwhile, PTI alleged that the Punjab government imposed a curfew-like situation in Bahawalpur, Faisalabad, and Mianwali in response to planned protests against inflation and Khan's detention, with party officials claiming this reflects government panic. [Dawn] [Dawn]
INTERNATIONAL - MARKET, POLITICS, SECURITY & DEVELOPMENT
- Israeli Genocide, Iran Warns of Strong Response: Israeli strikes in the Gaza Strip killed at least 65 Palestinians, including in a school, as tanks advanced in Khan Younis. At least six people were killed and seven wounded in Israeli air strikes targeting central Beirut with loud blasts heard as three missiles also hit Lebanon’s southern suburb of Dahiyeh. Hezbollah fighters and Israeli troops engaged in tit-for-tat aerial strikes in southern Lebanon as a ground incursion stalls after eight Israeli soldiers are. [Al Jazeera] [Al Jazeera] [Al Jazeera] [Dawn] [ET]
- Explosions Near Israeli Embassies, Tensions Escalate: Police in Denmark and Sweden are investigating explosions and gunfire near Israeli embassies amid rising Middle East tensions, with three Swedish nationals arrested in Denmark. Hezbollah reported repelling an Israeli infiltration into southern Lebanon, while Israel confirmed eight soldiers killed. This follows Iran's largest missile attack on Israel, and U.S. President Biden called for a proportional response, stating he wouldn't support an Israeli strike on Iran's nuclear facilities. [BR] [Dawn] [ET]
- Typhoon Hits Taiwan, Death Toll Underestimated: As a typhoon hit Taiwan and rescuers searched for hurricane survivors in the U.S., a study estimated that the long-term death toll from tropical cyclones is about 300 times higher than official figures. Hurricane Helene has killed at least 155 in the U.S., Hurricane John claimed 16 lives in Mexico, and two deaths were reported in Taiwan before Typhoon Krathon's expected landfall on Thursday. [Dawn]
- Vance & Walz Debate Middle East Crisis: U.S. vice presidential candidates J.D. Vance and Tim Walz debated the Middle East crisis on Tuesday, potentially influencing voter decisions ahead of the election. This debate is likely the final one of the 2024 campaign, as Trump has declined a second debate with Kamala Harris. [Dawn]
- Europe's STOXX 600 Flat Amid Caution: Europe's STOXX 600 closed flat at 521.14 points on Wednesday, as investors remained cautious amid escalating Middle East tensions, despite a 1.6% rise in the energy sector and gains in defense companies like Germany's Rheinmetall and Britain's BAE Systems. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq edged up but stayed near two-week lows; by midday, the Dow rose 37.78 points (0.09%) to 42,194.75, the S&P 500 gained 7.82 points (0.14%) to 5,716.57, and the Nasdaq increased 57.33 points (0.32%) to 17,967.69. [BR] [BR]
- OPEC+ Maintains Output, Plans Increase: OPEC+ ministers have decided to maintain their current oil output policy, with plans to begin increasing production from December, while stressing the need for some members to implement further cuts to offset overproduction. Following a virtual joint ministerial monitoring committee meeting, OPEC emphasized the importance of full compliance with output targets and will continue to assess market conditions. [BR]
- Oil Prices Rise Amid Middle East Tensions: Oil prices rose on Wednesday due to concerns about potential supply disruptions from escalating conflicts in the Middle East, despite significant increases in U.S. crude inventories limiting further gains. Brent futures settled at $73.90 per barrel, up 34 cents, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude increased by 27 cents to $70.10 per barrel. [Reuters]
- Deadline Extended for Prize Bonds: The State Bank of Pakistan has extended the deadline for encashment, conversion, or redemption of national prize bonds withdrawn from circulation to December 31, 2024. This applies to Rs 40,000, Rs 25,000, Rs 15,000, and Rs 7,500 denominations, allowing the public to submit requests at bank branches until the new deadline. [BR]
- SBP Updates Islamic Banking Conversion Criteria: The State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) has revised the criteria for converting conventional banking branches into Islamic banking branches to better address the industry's needs and streamline the process. Under the new guidelines, banks can temporarily establish virtual conventional cost centers to manage unconvertible deposits and asset portfolios of converted branches, pending approval from their Shariah Board. [BR]
