The pace of renewables: Global fast, local slow

The race for renewables is getting fast because of AI, and slower because of human preferences.?

Accommodating both will be required to get to Net Zero.

The world agreed at COP28 to triple renewable energy by 2030. This week, working groups at the World Economic Forum, in Davos, started to tackle the execution challenges.?

I was part of a discussion on Wednesday with climate leaders, including John Kerry and Europe’s energy lead Krista Simson, to help figure out what’s needed. The technologies and capital are there, as we’re seeing in the explosion of renewables in the U.S, Europe, China and, yes, Canada. The biggest concern: NIMBYism.?

Doesn’t matter if it’s Scotland or Scarsdale, people everywhere don’t seem like the sight of solar fields and wind farms, except perhaps as a movie backdrop. The U.S. has seen a six-fold increase in formal complaints and court cases against renewables, largely rooted in “Not In My Backyard” arguments. Kerry said he’s all for environmental reviews — just not ones that take five years, and can lead to another five years of court challenges.

There are exceptions. Jennifer Morris, who heads the Nature Conservancy (known as Nature United in Canada), cited a Kentucky coal mine that was shut down and replaced by a solar farm, with community support. It helped that the town was proud of its role as an energy source for America’s industrial muscle. It helped, too, that no one in the town could see the solar panels (or the coal mine before it).

The Nature Conservancy is working with Microsoft to develop mapping tools, using AI, to show communities and governments where the optimal sites may be for other wind and solar projects. In Spain, Iberdrola is using AI to optimize wind production.

Despite such local challenges, the world is committed to growing renewables production from 3,400 gigawatts in 2022 to 11,000 gigawatts by the end of the decade. And there is momentum. The growth rate of renewables doubled last year, and if it doubles again, the world will be on course to hit that 2030 target.

The U.S. could cover a third of that growth just by approving and starting projects currently on the table. China’s renewables capacity has been growing by 20% a year for the past five years. If that continues, it will cover another big part of the gap. Germany is another market that’s on a tear, last year crossing the 50% threshold of renewables.?

The Davos group agreed on 10 priorities to accelerate renewables:

• more policy certainty, so projects aren’t started and stopped
• more demand generation from industry and local utilities ?
• capacity building for regulators
• more coordination between electricity authorities?
• potential site mapping, using AI
• blended finance to reduce risk for investors
• “beyond ground” renewables to put solar projects on rooftops, especially warehouses, condos and offices
• nature-positive, to ensure projects enhance rather than diminish forests and fields?
• skills training for project builders and operators
• humility, as we’re all learning — as are those AI models?

You can follow my daily reports from Davos on this social channel and rbc.com/thoughtleadership.