The Oxford Report

American Bondo1

Jan. 2024 - It will take a bank shot2 in more than one way, but stocks and your very company could catch a rising tide in 2024, but first since it is January, should we ‘reflect’. Whatever.

Instead, think, thrive and survive a brick thrown through the window like a political system meltdown. Survival tactics.?

Granted, mine are swayed with 3 basic swamp instincts: if it’s not broke, don’t fix it, if it is, paint it and buy boatloads of Bondo - a 3m product by the way that is a pewy, polyester putty that plugs holes and makes the surface look like new, theoretically. ?

Bank Bondo - this year the Federal Reserve will most likely have to try a bank shot to avoid a debt crisis 3x larger than 2008 mortgage meltdown3 or lose as many as 300 Silicon Valley banks or ask the government for a bailout. ?

And it comes down to the neighborhood smoothie shop.

Because its all part of the “mixed use” residential - retail development trend that right now is a floating time bomb as this segment accrued over $2.6 trillion in bank financing over the past 10 years, (super popular with midsize regional banks) and those notes have balloon payments or refinance options at higher interest rate scenarios coming due start of 2025.?

Customers in the neighborhood looks good on paper and maybe Applebees - but the retail stores in the mix are sitting empty or largely below break even across the nation, so the retailers can’t eat the higher rents from increased interest rates on the refinanced notes.?

Bring the bank bondo - ?Federal Reserve will drop interest rates a lot faster than the market expects so the developers can refinance in striking distance of original notes and a bonus bondo - Biden glides into an election with happy days that are here again.?

Otherwise, if the Feds throw a brick at the banks, the ships go down and find me on my boat- full of bondo by the way- at the Ferdinand beach jetties where the sheepshead? are striking and shrimp surviving.?

Political Bondo - Question for a Presidential debate - if banks have default on the 2.4 trillion real estate notes, would you bail them out? Just asking.

By the way, tomorrow I will be at the RFK, Jr. reception here in Atlanta and do not intend to vote for President Biden, but can say he had a positive policy below on protecting forests, habitats and species.

A ?little bondo to plug the partisan hatred that an election alone, as far as I can tell, is not going to resolve. ?

Survive the future is first order of business. Dedicate 20 seconds to read below and understand American Bondo, patching up things rather then tearing them apart.?

The US Forest Service announced its plan to protect the nearly 25 million acres it manages where towering trees still stand, the first national plan to protect the most ancient trees still standing in America’s national forests.?

The land would get new protections under a proposal the Biden administration announced Tuesday that would ban most logging in groves that play a vital role in fighting climate change and revises all 128 of its forest plans, which dictate how all 193 million acres of forests and grasslands are managed.

The plan would prohibit cutting carbon-rich forests from being clear-cut at a time when scientists say they are most needed. Not to mention, the trees also provide an essential habitat for hundreds of species of wildlife.

Survive. Always a good plan - then, thrive.

PS - Two mortgage REITS, Annaly Capital Management (NLY) and AGNC Investment (AGNC) that should benefit from falling interest rates.

Cliff Notes:?

1. Bondo - Bondo is a polyester putty product originally marketed as an automotive body filler. Nowadays the brand name is used by 3M for a line of American-made products for automotive, marine and household repairs.

2.A bank shot is a shot that hits the backboard first. If it goes in, you might hear a broadcaster yell, "Off the glass!" or "The bank is open!" If it misses, your opponent might call it a "brick." Bank shots can be very effective, sometimes even more effective than straight-on shots.

3. U.S. home mortgage debt relative to GDP increased from an average of 46% during the 1990s to 73% during 2008, reaching $10.5 (~$14.1 trillion in 2022) trillion.

4. Sheepshead (Archosargus probatocephalus) - Other Names: Convict Fish. Description: Regulated nongame species - see bag & size limits. Vivid black and white bars make the sheepshead or "convict fish" distinctive among fishes of the Texas coast. large sharp spines and a razor-edge gill cover make handling and cleaning difficult. another key feature is the jutting teeth, slightly like a human's.Spawning occurs in February and March in the Gulf near jetties, rock piles and reefs. The young fish live in shallow, grassy areas where food and shelter are abundant. Habitat - Young live in shallow, grassy areas. Adults live near pilings and rocks where their strong incisor teeth are used to good advantage to graze barnacles and small shellfish. How To Catch: Experienced fishermen use small fiddler and hermit crabs to catch sheepshead. Alertness is essential, for the fish is an adept bait stealer. Where To Catch: Near hard substrate such as jetties, rock piles and reefs. How To Eat: Although sheepshead are difficult to clean, the flesh is excellent.

Responses:

"Bondo, love it." - Steve P.?

"Good morning, Cliff! I read all of your newsletters. I've been wondering lately - are we conservatives welcome at CliffCo? :)" - JG

"RFK Jr. is a vaccine quack - can’t believe you support the conspiracy conservatives." - KS