Overview: Scoreboard

I’ve just landed in Warsaw after another productive conference week in Paris – days that blended into nights while meeting with executives, bankers, lawyers and more to better understand the state of the space industry. After the globally-focused World Space Business Week, I’ll be at OTB Ventures’ summit for the day to get a European download on their space sector.

One key theme that emerged from this past week at WSBW: A diverging market landscape.

The vibe I got from my discussions with decision-makers was that the space market is now in a phase of winners and losers. The group straddling the middle – companies not so much succeeding or failing but rather still facing uncertainty – dwindles by the month. The group in the winners circle is doing boring parts well: Scaling, producing, executing.

In my opinion there’s an encouraging trend of more companies flying more hardware. You want to be taken seriously? Then your updates of “here’s what we’ve been up to” are full of images of launches and deployments and operational spacecraft – not renderings and animations. It’s the fastest way to get yourself in that winner’s circle conversation.

Even in the launch segment – where in past years panels of rocket executives have given tentative updates around how soon their new rockets would debut – there was a signal of a change. SpaceX has been enjoying years of effectively unchallenged growth in signing and launching government and commercial customers alike. But this year, for the first time, the rocketeers are getting their vehicles online: ULA, Arianespace and Mitsubishi all debuted their rockets: Vulcan, Ariane 6 and H3, respectively. And Blue Origin is pushing hard to get New Glenn launched before year end, with urgency I hadn’t seen before.

But with the rocket business, let’s face the fact that each of these new rockets have booked up backlogs and still need to get their production and operations flowing. And you realize the enormous task ahead when they give cadence targets of 5 to 10 launches next year, while SpaceX is on track for about 15 times that this year alone.

There are frustratingly few companies trying to respond to SpaceX’s rise and dominance. Whether it’s rockets or satellite broadband, most of what I see is a white-knuckle grip trying to hold on to dwindling market share, rather than compelling alternatives with a growth story for investors. Take inflight WiFi connectivity for example, where Starlink just pulled the rug on a major client of four incumbent satellite companies.?

Last year I left WSBW with the top theme that SpaceX had become the bogeyman to most everyone else in the industry. From a market competition perspective, bogeyman’s taking his pick of the livestock and fine wine with few pitchforks in sight.

WHAT'S UP

• Starlink has 2,500 aircraft under contract for inflight WiFi after the United megadeal, which appears to be the largest single order of aviation satellite connectivity by commercial airline fleet size. United is retrofitting more than 1,000 airplanes over the next several years with Starlink, which will replace its existing providers of Viasat, Panasonic, Thales, and Intelsat. – CNBC / CNBC
• Elon Musk says SpaceX will sue the FAA for ‘regulatory overreach’ after the agency proposed fines of a combined $633,000 against the company for multiple unlicensed Falcon 9 launches. The company kept the pressure on in a letter to space-related Congressional representatives, saying it continues to be concerned “with the FAA’s inability to keep pace with the commercial space industry.”? – CNBC / SpaceX ?
• Axiom Space grappling with ‘severe cash crunch’ despite $500 million in total fundraising, as the company seeks to close a new round before year end. With nearly 1,000 employees, the human spaceflight specialist was forced to lay off about 100 staff this year, as well as lost a number from its C suite, and is asking for voluntary pay cuts in return to stock as it aims to survive. Axiom reportedly fell behind on payments to Thales for its station modules and to SpaceX for its Dragon missions, the latter which cost Axiom $670 million for four flights. Its goal was to build a space station for $3 billion but the uncertain future of the International Space Station threatens the company’s staggered build out plan. – Forbes
• SDA’s initial PWSA satellites demonstrate inter-satellite and space-to-ground links in a milestone that Director Derek Tournear says shows its SpaceX and York Space satellites in Tranche 0 have been an “unmitigated success.” – Via Satellite
• ‘AUKUS’ export control agreement between Australia, U.K., and U.S. heralded as a boon for satellite commerce, as the deal removes licenses on about $7.5 billion in trade. “Importantly for the space and satellite industry, the list will not exclude from license-free treatment most launch technologies nor satellite and spacecraft technologies that are not classified.” – Sheppard Mullin
• Defense tech company Anduril establishes space division that the company says will develop everything from software to payloads to partnership, emphasizing that “space is a contested warfighting domain and we recognize the importance of equipping spacecraft with advanced autonomy and cutting-edge payloads.” – Anduril
• NASA gives updates on private space station developments, including Blue Origin’s work on mockups of Orbital Reef, upcoming review milestones for Starlab, and Vast’s completion of the Haven-1 preliminary design review. – SpaceflightNow
• Spacecraft builder Apex announces Nova satellite bus product, an ESPA-Grande class platform intended for payloads between 200 kilograms and 500 kilograms. Nova is the startup’s third satellite bus product, following Aries and GEO Aries. The company intends to begin deliveries in a year, noting that Nova is “focused on meeting the needs of operational proliferated LEO missions” such as SDA’s PWSA. – Apex
• MDA expanding Quebec satellite production facility, adding 185,000 square feet for manufacturing up to two satellites per day. – MDA
• Asteroid mining startup AstroForge moves into new California HQ in Seal Beach, with a 64,000 square foot facility that will house its manufacturing, testing, and integration. – AstroForge
• Ariane 6 inaugural flight’s upper issue resolved, task force says, with the failed re-ignition of the rocket’s Auxiliary Propulsion Unit (APU) attributed to flight software. – CNES
• Bryce debuts lunar sector market map that shows the companies building businesses with the intent of providing moon-related products and services, from landers to satellites and more. – BryceTech

INDUSTRY MANEUVERS

• Ex-Im Bank sees space pipeline more than double to $9.5 billion as companies turn to the U.S. export credit agency for loans and other financial support. Judith Pryor, Ex-Im first vice president and vice chair, says the agency is “actively underwriting $800 million worth of space transactions.” – SpaceNews
• Lockheed Martin wins $297.1 million contract for GeoXO ‘lightning mapping instrument’ via NASA as part of the NOAA’s Geostationary Extended Observations satellite program. The instrument’s data is intended to analyze severe storm and improve warning times for hazardous weather. – NASA
• Eutelsat orders ‘multiple’ H3 rockets from Japan’s MHI, with launches to geostationary orbit planned to start in 2027 on the Mitsubishi Heavy Industries vehicle. – MHI
• NGA adds 10 companies to five-year $290 million “Luno A” program, which will see The National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency pay for “unclassified commercial GEOINT-derived computer vision and analytic service capabilities.” The companies include Airbus, Booz Allen Hamilton, BlackSky, BlueHalo, CACI, Electomagnetic Systems, Maxar, NV5, Royce Geospatial, and Ursa Space. – NGA
• Telesat finalizes funding for Lightspeed constellation, with the governments of Canada and Quebec contributing 2.54 billion Canadian ($1.9 billion). The company plans to begin launching the first Lightspeed satellites by mid-2026. – Telesat
• Capella awarded $15 million Air Force contract to update its satellite synthetic aperture radar capabilities for military applications under an AFWERX STRATFI agreement. – SpaceNews
• Ursa Major selected for $12.5 million Pentagon investment through the Office of Strategic Capital, through a partnership with the U.S. Navy that aims to mature manufacturing of the company’s Lynx solid rocket motors. – Ursa Major
• BlackSky gets space object imagery contract from Australian startup HEO, a “seven-figure data services” award to provide imagery of spacecraft like the International Space Station. – BlackSky
• Planet signs three year contract with Germany’s space agency to provide satellite imagery data and services for research and development. The contract’s value was not disclosed. – Planet

MARKET MOVERS

• Intuitive Machines stock jumps after NASA moon satellite contract, initially worth $150 million under the agency’s Near Space Network program and with a maximum value of $4.82 billion over five years. The contract will see Intuitive Machines build and deploy a constellation of lunar satellites to provide communications and navigation services, especially for NASA’s Artemis program. – CNBC
• J.P Morgan downgrades Viasat to neutral and lowers price target to $15 from $29, citing the recent Starlink deal with United. The firm estimates the loss of about 500 United planes will cost Viasat $60 million to $80 million in revenue. “a well heeled Starlink is difficult to bet against long-term even if impacting share of new wins/RFPs, the firm wrote in a note to clients. – J.P. Morgan
• Morgan Stanley slashes Virgin Galactic price target to $5, saying the space tourism stock is “entering the valley” after retiring its spacecraft VSS Unity earlier this year and with flights on hold for years until its next generation Delta spacecraft begin flying. – Morgan Stanley
• Momentus raising $2.75 million through private placement, through an unnamed institutional investor, to be used for general corporate purposes and paying its accounting firm. – Momentus

BOLDLY GOING

• Mike Griffin leaving Rocket Lab board after 4 years for an undisclosed reason that the company noted was not due to “any dispute or disagreement with the Company.” – Rocket Lab
• Caroline Arnoux promoted at Arianespace to Head of the Ariane Business Unit, as well as joined the company’s executive committee. – Arianespace

ON THE HORIZON

• Sept. 20: SpaceX Falcon 9 launches Starlink satellites from California.
• Sept. 26: SpaceX Falcon 9 launches NASA’s Crew-9 mission from Florida.