The Overconfidence of Inexperience

First, I'm not referring to any of my expat colleagues here who are true professionals and know exactly what they're doing—I’ve learned a lot from them. This isn’t about lacking knowledge but rather about the false sense of overconfidence when operating in a foreign country, which can lead to serious consequences.

Yesterday, a colleague asked me to meet with a media security consultant as a favor who had come to Lebanon to assist a news agency during the war.

It was his first time in Lebanon, and the only other place he had visited in the Middle East was Dubai, where he spent two weeks.

During our meeting, he started advising me on operating in Lebanon, as if he was born here.

I don’t think I've ever finished a coffee and left a meeting so quickly.

He was so arrogant, it was clear he was headed for a rude awakening.

I regularly meet with security consultants, and they usually ask thoughtful questions about the do's and don'ts, and cultural sensitivities, knowing they're in unfamiliar territory. In Lebanon, for example, we have 17 different sects. It’s not that I know more, but being local makes all the difference.

This is one of the major mistakes media companies make—sending an international consultant with just a local taxi driver to navigate the complexities here.

In the high-stakes world of security consulting, experience and deep knowledge of local dynamics are crucial. However, an alarming trend is emerging where some consultants, with little to no experience on the ground, believe they can operate in complex environments like Lebanon, simply because they’ve spent time in a relatively stable city like Dubai. This overconfidence can lead to serious consequences for the clients who depend on them.

Using this as an example, Lebanon is Not Dubai. Dubai and Lebanon may be geographically close, but they are worlds apart when it comes to security. Dubai operates under a highly centralized government with strict laws and tight security measures. Crime is low, and most situations are predictable. In contrast, Lebanon has a long history of political instability, sectarian tensions, and the presence of armed militias. The security environment in Lebanon is rapidly changing risks and threats, especially in volatile regions like the Bekaa Valley, Tripoli, or the southern borders.

A consultant who hasn’t spent time in Lebanon will fail to appreciate the complexities of local actors, regional power struggles, and the influence of external forces. Knowing how to operate in Dubai does not translate to understanding the deep-rooted issues in Lebanon, where checkpoints, unpredictable road closures, and sectarian-driven clashes are daily realities.

The difference is stark: in Lebanon, personal networks, on-the-ground experience, and knowledge of local customs often outweigh high-tech solutions. Without personal contacts and a deep understanding of local dynamics, a consultant is likely to misjudge the severity of risks, putting the safety of clients at serious risk.

The assumption that two weeks in Dubai provides enough insight to operate effectively in Lebanon reflects a dangerous overconfidence. Lebanon’s security landscape requires more than just a textbook understanding of conflict zones or regional politics. It demands the ability to navigate a fragile political environment, build relationships with local actors, and respond to rapidly evolving threats.

Consultants who overestimate their expertise without local knowledge can make fatal errors in judgment, such as choosing the wrong evacuation routes, underestimating the influence of local militias, or missing the signals of brewing conflict. In a volatile environment, these missteps can cost lives.

The complexity of operating in Lebanon underscores the importance of relying on consultants with real on-the-ground experience. Security in Lebanon is not just about identifying threats but understanding the nuances of regional and sectarian tensions, knowing which areas are controlled by which factions, and being able to quickly adjust plans as situations change.

Experienced consultants in Lebanon have often built networks of trusted local contacts, from drivers to fixers, who can provide crucial, real-time information and help navigate a landscape where things can change in an instant. Without these relationships, a consultant is flying blind.

For a security consultant without Lebanese experience, the risks don’t just impact their clients; they can ripple out to affect entire operations. Poorly informed decisions can lead to failed evacuations, delayed responses to crises, or the escalation of tensions in sensitive areas. In some cases, these missteps can lead to diplomatic consequences or international incidents.

Consultants who have never worked in Lebanon but assume they know how to operate in the country are playing a dangerous game with the lives of those they are supposed to protect.

The belief that a security consultant can understand Lebanon simply by spending time in Dubai is a recipe for disaster. Lebanon’s security challenges are unique and complex, and they require not only experience but also a deep understanding of the local dynamics, networks, and constantly shifting power structures. Overconfidence, born from inexperience, can lead to devastating consequences.

For clients, it’s critical to vet consultants thoroughly and ensure they have genuine experience in the regions they claim to understand. In high-risk environments like Lebanon, there’s no room for second-hand knowledge or assumptions. When it comes to security, nothing can replace real-world experience on the ground.

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