Overcoming Confirmation Bias

Yes, we eat Kangaroo.

Having moved to the USA several years ago, I have some strange conversations. Whether it be about the mistruths about our laws, our customs, or a sheer disbelief that a sport like Australian Rules Football exists. One of my highlights though, was when I was walking my dog and a beautiful fall morning and my dog took an interest in a passerby. A regular who I speak to often. Retired now, but a Wall Street finance exec of old now enjoying the warmt of the Florida winters. He said to me, as he often does "eaten any kangaroos lately". I laughed and said "supply is tough here in the states". This was a throw back from when we first me. He asked about the dog (never the dog walker in my experience) and then, as is commonplace, the sentence "I detect an accent" comes out. "Aussie" I say almost dismissively after years of being misidentified as British. He then immediately got excited and said that Kangaroos were his favorite animal. Some story about how bold and brave and family focused they are. Now, if I had thought about it more, I perhaps wouldn't have chosen my next sentence to be delivered with such pragmatic resolve. "Well, they are very delicious and quite good for you". I haven't seen a face turn to white that fast since I took my Mum on a rollercoaster at Disney World. He refused to believe it, telling me I was clearly joking. I insisted. After a few jokes and several attempts by my dog to move us on quickly, we parted ways. We've made many jokes about it since, and I was convinced he didn't believe me. Even after I told him to google it, he notched it up as a big practical joke Australia was playing on the world. I even took the below photo from a supermarket I was in on a trip to Aus and sent it to him. He dismissed it as photoshopped.

I still find it funny that an intelligent, informed, kind guy would think I would go to this much effort to keep a story going. And although the story is fun, and who knows where he lies on the belief spectrum nowadays, it's one I share as a cheeky way of introducing confirmation bias. One of the most common biases I find when talking with retail leaders the world over - the ability to fall in love with an idea, and not the evidence. It can come about for many reasons (self-defense for example, when you don't want to think about eating a national emblem). However, it is commonplace in work too. Especially when one is doing something creative and bold and inventive! We naturally, want to be correct. We look for ways to prove our instincts are right. It is dangerous to progress, and a common reason for innovation pipelines that don't deliver on all they are meant to. So, I wanted to take a minute to break it down and talk through some methods to overcome it in your work.

What is Confirmation Bias and Why Does It Exist?

The bias we’re delving into today is called “confirmation bias.” It’s the mental shortcut our brains take when we cling to our preconceived notions, even when confronted with solid evidence to the contrary. Imagine you’ve always believed that cats are aloof creatures. Even when you meet a cuddly, affectionate cat, your brain might ignore this new evidence and stick to the old belief. Or when you think that Thursday is the busiest day of trade, so you roster heavily without checking the data, then wonder why you're short on Fridays. That’s confirmation bias in action!

So, why does this happen? Our brains love shortcuts. Processing every piece of information we encounter would be exhausting, so we develop patterns and beliefs to help us navigate the world more efficiently. Confirmation bias kicks in to protect these established beliefs. It’s a way of maintaining mental balance and avoiding the discomfort of cognitive dissonance—which is a fancy way of describing that weird and uneasy feeling you get when your beliefs are challenged by new information.

Just the same, social and cultural factors play a significant role. We tend to seek out and remember information that aligns with our existing views (or those views shared by people we trust) because it feels good and reaffirms our identity. It’s like a mental pat on the back, making us feel more confident and secure in our worldview. This bias is a natural, human response, but recognizing it is the first step towards overcoming it.

Ways to Overcome These Biases

Overcoming confirmation bias isn’t about completely rewiring your brain—it’s about becoming more aware of your thought patterns and intentionally challenging them. Here are some practical ways to keep your mind open and flexible (like anti-bias yoga!):

1. Embrace Curiosity: Treat your beliefs like hypotheses, rather than unchangeable truths. Ask yourself, “What would it take to change my mind?” Seek out information that challenges your assumptions and be genuinely curious about differing viewpoints. My favorite way of describing this is "even if you have strong beliefs, hold onto them loosely". Every time you feel yourself in a situation where either you're arguing with someone or no one is arguing with you, ask yourself why.
2. Play Devil’s Advocate: Regularly challenge your own beliefs by arguing the opposite side. This exercise can help you see the strengths and weaknesses of both perspectives and understand the full picture more clearly. I also recommend getting team members to play the opposing roles. What are the reasons for a hypothesis and what are the reasons against it. It's also a fun way to introduce new thinking and different roles for team members to play to challenge their own biases.
3. Engage in Open Conversations: Talk to people who hold different beliefs and be open to their perspectives. Listening actively and empathetically can help you understand why they think the way they do and might even provide insights that challenge your own biases. One of the hardest experiments I ever did was to agree with myself not to debate or counter-argue for a week. It taught me a lot about listening and I recommend you give it a go, too.
4. Reflect on Your Mistakes: When you realize you’ve held a wrong belief, take a moment to reflect on how you came to that conclusion and what evidence you ignored. This reflection can help you become more aware of your biases in the future, and different ways you can cotton on to them more quickly.

Strong believes, loosely held.

I don't want you thinking that this is me telling you to not have strong beliefs or ignore instincts. Those things are incredibly important in ensuring we move at pace and maintain certain levels of creativity. I would just nudge you to think that maybe kangaroos can be cute, and delicious too.