Overcoming Biases

Would it surprise you to learn that the results of this year’s Olympics were a little…skewed?

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Oh, we don’t mean who got which medal. (We’re with you, team Chiles!)

Take a look at this…

Here’s how NBC displayed the medal table after day three of this year’s Olympics:?

They have the US listed in first place, with twenty total medals.

Seems fine, right? Until you learn that most countries, including the Olympic Federation, don't organize their medal tables this way.

Putting the total number of medals as the place determiner naturally favors countries with more athletes in competition (hint, hint: the US).

For everyone else, the number of gold medals is ranked first, followed by silver, and then bronze. The total medal count (listed on the far right in the tables) isn't a factor. Here's what the actual medal table looked like on day three:?

The US isn’t in 1st. They’re in 6th. [Thanks to The Independent for their breakdown of this display of bias by the US media.]

Here at Effective Flow Connections, LLC, we think a lot about bias and how it influences decision-making, so we're familiar with many of the different 'types.' This reconfiguration of the medal facts in favor of the US? It’s a great example of:

In-Group Bias: Favoring one’s own group over others.

Or maybe:

The Framing Effect: Being influenced by the way information is presented, rather than just the information itself.

Or even:

Egocentric Bias: Overemphasizing the importance of one’s own perspective and experiences when evaluating events.?

Take your pick.

Why are we so interested in bias? Because it's directly linked to problem-solving. Before you can solve a problem, you need to understand why and how your perspective is being influenced. Clients bring us in because having an outside perspective is crucial for spotting biases. This approach helps in reaching a smart, objective decision—faster.

That’s why we:

? perform personality typing for stakeholders and decision-makers, to help people understand why they have an inclination to behave in certain ways (and yes, we do have choices when it comes to how we behave).

? conduct a comprehensive SWOT analysis (Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities, and Threats) to help key stakeholders identify and address the organization's most critical pain points.

? facilitate team offsite meetings, to keep everyone focused on desired outcomes, instead of assumptions and hidden biases.

Interesting, right? If you want some hands-on help, you can email us at [email protected] or go here to learn more about our services. In the meantime, let’s do a little bias breakdown, shall we?

3 Biases You’ve Probably Never Heard Of (and might be impacting your decision-making)

? Actor-Observer Bias: Attributing one’s own actions to external causes while attributing others’ actions to internal factors.

This doozy of a cognitive bias was first documented by Edward Ellsworth Jones and Richard E. Nisbett, both social psychologists and authors. They noticed that an actor (the person doing) tends to blame situations, rather than their personality, for the things that happen to them. Whereas an observer (the person watching) attributes behavior to personality traits.

Some examples:

You’re driving like a distracted Nascar driver, but you really can’t help it: the roads are slippery, and the visibility is next to zero. You see another driver making similar errors and you know the truth: they’re bad at driving. Full stop.

You’re late to a movie, but it’s not your fault. It’s the traffic. The terrible parking. Your friend is late to a movie? They’re inconsiderate to the max.

You didn’t score very high on that test, but you’re not surprised. The questions were impossible, and that teacher never liked you. Your friend failed a class? She doesn’t work very hard.

These are extreme examples, but we all tend to lean in this direction. We can counteract our own knee-jerk explanations for outcomes by taking a moment to step in, instead of back. Is it possible our internal state contributed to our results? If so, are there things we can do to make better choices the next time we’re presented with a similar scenario?

? Gambler’s Fallacy: Believing that future probabilities are altered by past events, when in fact they are independent.

Here’s a crazy fact: a study by Chinese and American researchers found that bank loan officers were up to 8% more likely to reject an application after they had accepted two or more in a row. ??? ?

This trend is blamed on the gambler’s fallacy: our belief that probability changes based on what’s come before. Those loan officers say no, just because they’ve said yes too many times in a row. Maybe most visible at the roulette table, this fallacy finds its way into everyday life all the time:

We think if we’ve flipped a coin and it comes up heads several times in a row, we’re due for tails. Even though the probability is, and continues to be, exactly the same.

If a family has several girls born in a row, they (and people around them) believe they’re “due” for a boy. Again, the chance remains close to 50/50. No matter how many little sets of princess dresses are already littering your hallway.

The danger of this fallacy extends quite quickly to our pocketbooks. Stock traders see this all the time. Even though fluctuations in stock prices are often random, people read into them, trying to predict the future based on an entirely arbitrary past. If you’re faced with a big decision for your organization—especially a financial one—it might serve you well to take a moment to investigate whether you’re making a gambler's choice, instead of one based on facts.?

? Ikea Effect: Overvaluing things that you have partially created yourself.

Named after that equally frustrating and enchanting Swedish behemoth, the Ikea effect speaks to how we tend to overvalue the things we’ve put effort into.

We all value our time and energy, so it stands to reason that the things we create ourselves mean more to us. Is it any wonder that SaaS companies everywhere lean hard into personalization options? They know all about the IKEA fallacy: if you’ve made it yours, you’ll value it more…and be willing to pay for the privilege.

Fun fact: in the 1950’s, the American housewife was initially dubious about the release of instant cake mixes. The mixes made cooking too easy. The satisfaction they got from the time and effort they spent baking cakes from scratch was erased by the one-step box mix. So, to appease the reluctant housewives, manufacturers changed the recipe to require the addition of an egg to complete the mix. They infused just a small bit of labor into the product, and the instant cake mix as we know it was born.        

So, next time you’re proudly dusting your IKEA coffee-table, or handing over your credit card for a subscription service where you do all the work, maybe take a moment to remind yourself that value and labor aren’t always one and the same.

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How Do You Overcome Biases?

Overcoming biases starts with awareness. Once you recognize how biases can distort your decision-making, you can actively work to counteract them. One effective strategy is to take a step back from immediate reactions and ask yourself how external influences might be shaping your thoughts. For instance, are you reacting based on past experiences (gambler's fallacy) or personal involvement (Ikea effect)? Seek diverse perspectives, especially from people outside your immediate circle, and rely on data rather than gut instincts. Lastly, use structured frameworks like SWOT analysis and personality typing to bring objectivity into your decision-making process. By questioning assumptions and focusing on facts, you can make more informed, unbiased choices.

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Final Thoughts and Recommended Reads

?"The eye sees only what the mind is prepared to comprehend." — Robertson Davies

That quote perfectly captures the essence of bias—our minds often limit what we perceive, leading to decisions that may not be as objective as we think. To overcome this, we need to be intentional about challenging our assumptions and seeking out different perspectives. Whether through self-reflection, structured analysis, or ongoing learning, the goal is to make decisions based on a fuller, more accurate understanding of the situation at hand.

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Want to know all the ins and outs of our decision-making process? Check out our book, Good Decisions Equal Success.?

Looking to sharpen your strategic thinking skills?

We recommend How to Think Strategically by Greg Githens. This insightful read delves into 20 micro-skills that can help you develop your strategic mindset. One of our favorites is the art of asking high-quality questions. By mastering this skill, you can uncover deeper truths, challenge biases, and reveal nuances that lead to better decision-making. Whether you're a seasoned leader or just starting to develop your strategic acumen, this book is a powerful tool to elevate your thinking. Grab your copy here.?

Need coaching or management consulting? Contact us here: [email protected]

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