??over ?? (Wordle-winning Strategy)

Spoiler: this post might remove a lot of the fun from Wordle; whilst hopefully improve your investment in product experiments.

I loved Wordle. Applying some product mindset helped me get a lot better. The popular word puzzle game, challenges us to guess a hidden five-letter word in six tries or fewer. Each guess provides feedback through colour-coded squares:

• ?? Green for correct letters in the right spot
• ?? Yellow for correct letters in the wrong spot
• ? Black for letters not in the word at all.

Interestingly is that the black squares are more vital and valuable than we at first realize.

Consider our daily attempt to get five green squares and we start trying to be lucky (from Wordle 491).

1. "LUCKY" ? ?? ? ? ?? ( two letter correct, a lucky start)
2. "FUNNY" ? ?? ? ? ?? (still got the two, struggling with the rest)
3. "BULLY" ? ?? ? ? ?? (still struggling)
4. "DUPPY" ? ?? ? ? ?? (just guessing now)
5. "MURRY" ?? ?? ? ? ?? (hmm, getting nervous)
6. "TUMMY" ? ?? ?? ?? ?? (failed, although realize I should have got it)

Now lets think about this from product mindset - with a return on investment of running experiments. Each time we can run 5 mini-experiments to get knowledge. And so our first guess gives us 5 mini-learnings. However on our second guess, we are only running three experiments. We knew the results of guess U as the second letter and Y as the last. It might feel good to get positive feedback however these were wasted experiments.

Instead, on our second go we are better guessing a word like "EARTH,"

1. "LUCKY" ? ?? ? ? ?? ( two letter correct, a lucky start)
2. "EARTH" ? ? ? ? ? (no green, but more new information)

This guess introduces five entirely new letters, maximizes our data gathering — five new mini-learnings. And even though that gives us no green, we?have gained more as we have removed 5 more potential letters.

My personal favoured opening words are EARTH, then SOUND, then if needed PICKY. Apparently one of the better opening words is SLATE (for hitting more popular letters).

Principle

An effective product mindset, like skilled Wordle playing, needs you to be planning effective experiments and interpreting feedback to refine strategies and enhance outcomes.

Good product management involves learning to utilize both positive and negative feedback effectively.

• ?? Green squares are akin to positive user feedback, validated MVPs, or successful feature launches in product management, confirming that a strategy is on the right track. However, repeating the same experiment costs us time and often yields little new information. It might feel good to take your wireframe to other, similar customers with similar problems and hear similar excitement about our idea. It'll look good on progress reports "we talked to five customer and all said nice things". However we are limiting our changes to learn something new.
• ?? Yellow squares are great for indicating that we are getting close to something valuable. In product management, this is similar to receiving mixed feedback or partial success from an experiment. These are often the most interesting - we are close but not yet there. This kind of feedback is crucial as it guides us to refine and optimize our features or strategies, moving us closer to the desired outcome.
• ? Black squares are analogous to negative feedback, such as features that do not meet user needs, MVP is not loved, or tests that fail to show expected results. While initially seeming less useful, this type of feedback is invaluable as it significantly narrows down the scope of future development efforts, enhancing the efficiency of the product development process. Negative results eliminate unproductive paths, allowing us to redirect resources and focus on more promising avenues, ultimately accelerating progress.

“The sculpture is already complete within the marble block, before I start my work. It is already there, I just have to chisel away the superfluous material.” ― Michelangelo

Recognizing the importance of different types of feedback enables product managers to iterate more effectively and develop products that better meet user needs. However the concept of negative feedback is really powerful. Just as Michelangelo saw what was not needed and removed it, product managers should use negative feedback to decide what not to build.

This strategic appreciation of all feedback forms is crucial for transitioning from a feature-driven roadmap to an experimentation-driven approach in product management. Traditional product development often prioritizes delivering features based on given needs and predefined roadmaps. Instead embracing a culture of experimentation, where every feature, tweak, and new idea is tested and validated, which can lead to more innovative and user-centric products. Importantly we do what is really needed. Just like our Wordle strategy to systematically eliminate as much as we can to converge on the correct solution more efficiently.

The concept of valuing negative feedback (black squares) encourages a mindset shift from fearing failure to learning from it, a fundamental principle in agile and lean product management. This perspective is rooted in the scientific method, emphasizing hypothesis testing, data collection, and revision based on empirical evidence.

Experimenting with Ways of Working

Experiments aren't limited to our products; they can improve processes and team dynamics too. Great pairing to team Retros is keep a list of challenges, backlog of process experiments to try, and regular running of them. I've also found many teams will be more open to trying a change as "sprint-long experiment" to learn then decide rather than feeling they are making an upfront commitment .

If your team struggles with long meetings, try experimenting for a week with what happens when we don’t have them. Collect feedback and openly discuss to determine if productivity improves, and decide whether to continue this new approach or revert.

However...

While the shift of our mindset towards experimentation-based approach offers numerous benefits, the context can sometimes necessitate a more traditional strategy:

• When market conditions are stable and user preferences are well understood then a well-defined roadmap that is efficiently delivered can accelerate getting to value. If you really think you know today's Wordle, just guess it. Experiments, much like agile itself, add cost and time to the process, there needs to be a return on investment.
• In highly specified products, sometimes in regulated industries, or during late product stages where the cost of change is high, focusing on refining existing successful features can outweigh the potential benefits of novel experiments.
• Resource or time constraints may also dictate a different approach, prioritizing delivering over potentially future valuable experiments. If it’s your sixth and final guess in Wordle, you need to try hard to make it count.

Ultimately, while we might advocate for ??over ??, in the realm of product management, what we really focus on is Value Over Everything.

More reading?

Over to you...

How do you incorporate feedback and experiments in your product development process? Do you favor an experimental approach, or do you rely more on a traditional roadmap? Share your experiences and insights below!

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