Over-the Horizon Counter-terrorism Capability

We really need to talk about the Biden Administrations' policy of " Over the Horizon Counterterrorism Capability.

US President Joe Biden on Aug. 16, said while commenting on the situation in Afghanistan after the Taliban's rapid takeover of the country. "We've developed counterterrorism over-the-horizon capability that will allow us to keep our eyes firmly fixed on any direct threats to the United States in the region and to act quickly and decisively if needed."

Just 13 days later this capability was put to the test in a very tragic way. On Aug 29. killing 10 innocent civilians including 7 children were killed by a Hellfire missile fired into a courtyard of their home.

This strike was carried out while The United States still had a presence in Afghanistan. There were still Humint networks placed throughout the country, not all in the best of shape considering the chaos of the evacuation. Or maybe I am wrong in this assertion. Maybe the reason a pattern of life was not able to be established for Mr. Ahmadi, was that the Humint networks were completely broken because of the chaos of the evacuation. If this was true then how does the administration plan on carrying out accurate strikes with minimal to no collateral damage?

Firstly let's look at the counterterrorism threat in Afghanistan after the fall.

Colin Kahl, the undersecretary of defense for policy, testified to the Senate Armed Services Committee the Islamic States branch in Afghanistan ( Islamic State-Khorasan, or IS-K) could generate the capability to strike outside the country within " six to twelve" months. He assessed that the al-Qaeda's branch in Afghanistan would take longer, perhaps " a year or two."*1

So from this assessment, we can figure on the possibility of an attack by either IS-K or al-Qaeda outside of the country at any time now. Having had two years almost in which to prepare. The Taliban itself has had this time to refurbish equipment that was left behind by the American Military. This makes it a potential military threat to its equipment-poor neighbors as well as a safe bastion of terrorism.

Turkmenistan, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan are three countries that might be coaxed into allowing the US to base Drone operations.*2

" A more effective drone deployment could be the re-establishment of forward bases, which the U.S. military can use to base drones closer to Afghanistan and maximize the ability to provide support to proxies such as the NRF ( National Resistance Front, who have continued to wage an insurgency against the Taliban's forces amid limited resources and calls for support from the international community."*3

What are some non-land-based options for Over Horizon Counterterror capabilities?

Drone Operations on a Carrier off the Pakistani Coast

I am really not sure the US Navy has an MQ-9 Reaper capability onboard a Carrier yet. However, they have tested the Navy X-47B (UCAV).

Overall it remains to be seen how truly effective the Over-the-Horizon Countterrorism Capability will be in deterring terrorist attacks on our Homeland. However, not having a well-established Human Intelligence network within Afghanistan's borders will make fighting terrorism exponentially harder. Having left many of our allies and trusted interpreters behind to fend for themselves makes it all the harder to find assets who will take the risk to help us in the future.

1) Jonathan Schroden, New Ideas for Over-the-Horizon Counterterrorism in Afghanistan. Lawfare, 2022. page 1

2) Ibid., page 2

3)Simeone Miller, Over the Horizon: How to Improve the U.S. Counter-terrorism Strategy. Realist Review, 2023