Outputs to Outcomes with the hypothesis template

Outcome orientation is a trend and we’re constantly being told to focus on outcomes. This however is not easy nor actionable for many practitioners. In this article series I explain 5 mind-tricks that consistently get your own brain and your team thinking outcomes. The mind-tricks are both proven and easy to teach forward.?This article introduces the first one: the hypothesis statement.

Swimming with the tide wave of outputs - not against it

We have been hard-wired to think problems and solutions all our life. I feel we can trace this focus on thinking all the way back to school time. The majority of school tasks come in the form of "solve problem X". Or: "1 + 1 = X". The problems are already defined and all we need to do is solve the problems. The same has been happening in work life where projects start from a backlog of problems (sometimes) and solution ideas (most of the time). Our brains have a habit of solving problems. The usual starting point is outputs.

When the organisational default is to talk solutions, designs, and outputs, then the shift to starting from the customer outcome is neither spontaneous nor does it feel natural. That's why I've noticed insisting that we need to right away stop and only talk customer outcomes is not the optimal change in method.

Insisting on outcome discussion prior to any other common ground is sometimes like swimming against the tide. There's a way to introduce outcome-thinking in the middle of the process too.

3-step hypothesis statement connects output to relevant outcomes

A moving horse is easier to steer. That's why sometimes is it quite ok to let the discussion flow with solutions and designs thrown in the air. Let it be and just patiently wait for a bit of convergence of the solution idea. Then it is time to rewind back towards outcomes.

Given an agreed solution idea, you can lead people and discussion backwards with the 3-part hypothesis statement.

This 3-part format is really easy to fill and talk through. The magic is, as I often observe, that it starts from the familiar. The capability is the technical solution, process, or project that we are going to complete. We just discussed it, we kind of share an idea what it solves. Now we just need to connect the solution back to the real world, and the steps 2 and 3 make just that.

The step 2 is the "outcome". I appreciate the vocabulary around outcomes, value, and impacts is far from a shared language in companies and teams. However, in the case of the hypothesis statement it turns out people consistently offer suggestions of "outcome" of implementing the capability. You can always help by prompting "say out loud the customer's outcome".

See how the step 2 is tiny addition and a tiny tie to the world. Often people say out loud quite broad outcomes. Sometimes abstract outcomes are offered. Be ready for hearing "happy customers" for instance. No worries. Write all of these so that everyone sees them. Often there's a clear winner in the bunch. Often it turns out there's a multitude of outcomes that we expect and need.

Move on to step 3.

Step 3 is again a small step for the process, but a big step in terms of connecting the output to the measurable outcome. The prompt 3 is

We will know that we have succeeded when we see??<this measurable signal>

This prompt is again making people enrich their mental picture of the (customer) outcome. It does it in two ways: 1) it invites people try imagine what the "signal that we see" would be 2) it also invites making the observation "countable" or measurable. The brain is fully capable of imagining what even an abstract outcome could look like. It has turned out that the majority of people can instantly start to suggest possible signals. All you need to do again is to write down what you hear.

Feel free to apply any convergence techniques to choose the best suggestions for both the outcome and the leading indicator. Usually it takes a bit of iteration and back and forth to get the whole statement concrete and flowing from output to measurement of outcome. The signal ideas suggest outcomes that are more concrete. Customer happiness might be changed to "customer satisfaction", which would have been suggested as measurable signal.

Finally, the third prompt does a really good job at framing that success only happens when it is measured. There is also a variation of the 3rd part that goes "we know we're on the right track when <we see this measurable signal>. This invites people instantly to think leading indicators.

Pat yourself on the back, doing that work is at the core of connecting outcomes and outputs.

Shifting from an output-discussion to outcome-thinking can be quick. You don't need a lot of education. What you need is a new frame. A new way of looking at what we create. More tricks for changing your perception then in next articles.

Credits to Barry O'Reilly for the original version of the Hypothesis Statement.