Outlook 2025: Navigating Risks

As some of you have asked about my investment thesis for 2025, I wanted to share a few thoughts. The year ahead is shaping up to be one of both heightened risks and exciting opportunities, driven by geopolitics, macroeconomic shifts, and transformative technological trends like AI. Here’s my take:

Geopolitical Risk: Still Elevated

Geopolitical uncertainty remains a dominant force, and in my view, it could even increase in 2025. Key flashpoints in the first half of 2025 include:

? Trump’s return (tariffs, U.S.-China dynamics, NATO, Europe)

? Instability in the Middle East

? Russia-Europe tensions

? European, or better French budget challenges

? German elections

These factors make surprises - both upside and downside - more likely. Yet, current volatility levels (e.g., VIX) don’t reflect these risks. For that reason, I continue to favor being long volatility through option strategies as one of the more bigger bets.

Macro Trends and Asset Allocation

Global markets are still being fueled by central bank liquidity. Both the U.S., Europe but also China are likely to continue accommodative policies, supporting assets even at current valuations. I am less sure about what will happen in Japan so I stay away from these markets. While U.S. equities may look expensive, I wouldn’t short them outright. Europe, in contrast, could surprise to the upside, particularly if geopolitical shifts - such as improved relations between Trump and Putin or resolutions to Europe’s energy challenges - materialize.

Commodities: A Long-Term Play

I maintain a bullish stance on commodities, particularly copper and other metals critical for electrification and the transition to green economies. Commodities serve as both an inflation hedge and a bet on long-term demand driven by the fight against climate change. That said, I acknowledge the risk of a selloff if we see an unexpected economic slowdown, keeping exposure smaller than in the past.

Inflation: Persistent Pressures

Inflationary pressures will likely persist, fueled by:

? Geopolitics, such as tariffs and trade restrictions

? Demand-supply dynamics in fiat currencies due to excessive money printing

One of the biggest risks I foresee remains the potential implosion of the USD - or the EUR. To hedge this, I’m staying long on options, gold, real assets, selective stocks, commodities, and, of course, crypto. And keep counterparty risk under control.

Bitcoin: The Digital Gold

I remain very long Bitcoin (BTC) and will continue to hold it. While I don’t view BTC as a black swan hedge (e.g., against a sudden collapse of the USD), I see it as a long-term play on gradual adoption. States, state-sponsored entities, and institutional demand will drive the next wave, with retail playing a smaller role in price movements. As I wrote in the past, I don't buy BTC as crash protection. To perform, a slow moving adoption is very supportive for BTC, a crash would lead to a massive selloff due to high 24/7 liquidity and self-enforcing VAR selling.

The case for BTC: In my opinion, BTC’s role as a “final store of value” in the AI-driven future economy positions it as a foundational layer - a kind of digital gold. However, it won’t function as "a currency for AI" due to its limitations (e.g., speed and cost). Instead, settlement layers like Solana or newer chains like SUI could take that role.

Ethereum: Cautious Outlook

I’m less optimistic about Ethereum (ETH). While it benefits from being a first mover, it’s caught in the middle - too slow and expensive to compete with newer chains like Solana on speed and usability and less secure than BTC. I believe ETH’s current premium as a first mover will fade over time, so I will keep exposure small.

Meme Coins: The Wildcard for high risk takers

For those willing to take big risks, meme coins could be the next big wave, similar to NFTs in the last cycle. While they lack intrinsic value, their cultural significance among younger generations makes them a playground for speculative liquidity. As I see it, meme coins are akin to horse betting - fun for some, disastrous for others.

Key points to remember:

? Meme coins are incredibly risky. Treat them as speculative plays where full loss is expected.

? They may work as a diversifier for portfolios positioned against black swan events via options. If no black swan comes around the corner, meme coins may perform in boring markets because people will be bored and will play around, putting liquidity in highly risky stuff. But be careful: focus may shift fast to other areas in the market, sometimes faster than the average trader can react..

Strategy Recap

Here’s how I’m positioning for the beginning of 2025 - as always - markets are not a picture, if markets change, I change my view:

? Long real assets: Real estate, gold, and commodities (especially copper).

? Selective equities: Some U.S. stocks, but with better risk-reward opportunities in Europe.

? Very long BTC: A long-term asymmetrical bet on gradual adoption.

? Overweight alternative programmable chains: Solana, SUI, and similar projects.

? Avoid bonds and cash: Fiat risks and inflationary pressures remain high. Being long some cash as an option is ok - but buying an option costs premium. General rule: cash is trash

? Meme coins: A speculative diversifier for those who can afford to take big risks loosing all money allocated to this market overnight.

Note: I would avoid stablecoins and complex crypto strategies that even seasoned professionals struggle to understand. If something seems too good to be true, it probably is.

As always, this is just my personal opinion - do you own research! The market in 2025 will demand adaptability, clear risk management, and a focus on long-term trends. Do your own research, stay cautious, and good luck navigating what might be a volatile year!

What’s your take on 2025? Let’s discuss!