The Outbreak Breakdown - the one where aliens may or may not exist

My AdvaMed colleague, Kristina Shultz, and I produce a weekly newsletter on aspects of the #COVID19 pandemic. Here's some of the content from our July 17th edition.

Something Completely Different 

 If Fermi’s paradox is another thing keeping you up at night, you might consider aestivating like all those super advanced aliens that we can’t find. Or maybe we’re actually the universe’s advanced life form. Or if you’re not in Stephen Hawking’s camp, pin your hopes on these Navy videos of what are definitely, maybe, probably not alien spacecraft. 

 Pandemic Snapshot 

 Global: Current Cases: 13,810,200 Deaths: 590,170 

• Just four countries account for two-thirds of the world’s COVID-19 cases: the United States, Brazil, India, and South Africa 

 United States: Current Cases: 3,588,400 Deaths: 138,268 

• States reported over 75,000 new cases on Thursday, breaking the previous single day record of 68,241 set on July 10 
• The team behind the COVID Tracking Project published a lengthy article discussing the current surge in COVID-19 cases and deaths and different scenarios that may play out over the next few months. 
• The Center for Public Integrity shared an unpublicized document from the White House Coronavirus Task Force that suggests at least 18 of the most hard-hit states should enact stricter measures such as mask requirements and increased testing. 

News & Insights 

Change in COVID-19 Data Reporting: Earlier this week, the Administration directed hospitals around the country to send COVID-19 data to a new central database rather than directly to the CDC, raising concerns about the future transparency of this data and how it will be used. On Tuesday, CDC removed its real-time dashboard before reinstating it on Thursday morning, with a disclaimer that the dashboard will not be updated after July 14. The Washington Post reported that negotiations between HHS and CDC to develop a plan for CDC to maintain its dashboard and produce regular reports for states and federal officials are ongoing. Questions continue about what this change means for hospitals and pandemic response. 

Mask Usage: CDC leadership, including Dr. Robert Redfield, published an editorial in JAMA on Tuesday promoting the universal use of face masks to prevent the spread of SARS-CoV-2 in the United States. The editorial cites several studies providing evidence that universal masking is effective and emphasizes the need for more clear communication to the general public about when, where, and how to wear a mask. CDC also published two articles on mask usage in this week’s Mortality and Morbidity Weekly Report (MMWR). The first describes findings from online surveys regarding attitudes and behaviors regarding mask usage in the U.S. and the second describes a case study where two infected hair stylists continued working while symptomatic but did not transmit the virus to any of their 139 clients during that time period. The stylists and clients all wore cloth face masks, which may have been critical in preventing transmission. 

SARS-CoV-2 Transmission in Utero: Researchers in France published evidence this week of SARS-CoV-2 transmission from a pregnant woman to her fetus. Several suspected cases of transplacental transmission have been noted around the world, but in this particular case, researchers were able to test the placenta, amniotic fluid, and woman and baby’s blood to determine that SARS-CoV-2 can replicate in the placenta and infect the fetus, who may then experience symptoms of COVID-19. 

Vaccines: This week, Moderna published promising results from its Phase 1 trial for its mRNA SARS-CoV-2 vaccine candidate in which all 45 trial participants developed positive immune responses after two doses of the vaccine. Experts are cautiously optimistic, but there are still many unknowns in terms of SARS-CoV-2 immunity. There are 23 vaccines in human clinical trials around the world right now with many more in earlier stages of development.  

In other vaccine news, results from a trial using the Bacille Calmette-Guérin (BCG) vaccine to prevent SARS-CoV-2 infection showed that the BCG vaccine may provide some cross-immunity, but more research is needed. The BCG vaccine is currently used in many parts of the world to prevent tuberculosis but has also been shown to provide nonspecific immunity for a number of other respiratory diseases.  

Drug and Treatment Tracker: The New York Times recently launched a new tracker that rates drugs or treatments for COVID-19 based on the available scientific evidence for their safety and effectiveness. 

 A Detailed Map of Who Is Wearing Masks in the U.S. | New York Times, July 17 

Once a Relic of Medical History, Radiation Emerges as an Intriguing — and Divisive — Treatment for COVID-19 | STAT News, July 16 

COVID-19 Risk Doesn’t Depend (Much) on Blood Type, New Studies Find | New York Times, July 15 

The Growing Scientific Evidence for Masks to Fight COVID-19, Explained | Vox, July 15 

A Heat Wave, the Coronavirus: Double Spikes of Risk Hit Communities | New York Times, July 15 

Global Surge in Coronavirus Cases Is Being Fed by the Developing World — and the U.S. | Washington Post, July 14 

A New Understanding of Herd Immunity | The Atlantic, July 13 

Four Ways to Track the Spread of Coronavirus—and Why None of Them Is Perfect | Wall Street Journal, July 11 

If the Coronavirus Is Really Airborne, We Might Be Fighting It the Wrong Way | MIT Technology Review, July 11