OUT OF THE BOX: OH, POOH!

We are in a time of questionable exclamations. We have the elections right in front of our eyes and two contenders with very different backgrounds and policies. I am not talking about politics today as a singular subject, but rather what the effects of our forthcoming elections are going to do to our markets.

It is my opinion, not my firm’s opinion, that Trump has a better understanding of business than Harris. I think that all decisions that he might make will include the monetary implications for corporations as well as for workers. To be very open, I think that this dynamic should be part of any investor’s opinion as well as those that invest money for their firm.

“Always watch where you are going. Otherwise, you may step on a piece of the Forest that was left out by mistake.”

?

????????????? -Winnie the Pooh

?

Aside from the elections themselves there is all of this so-called news in the press about them which really isn’t news, but opinion. Both candidates are quoted constantly, but their comments are generally not made in the correct context, and so what we are getting is an opinion rather than the news. It is very difficult these days to know the truth of what any of them are saying. One publication says this, another says that, a news channel says something else, and it is like being lost in Pooh’s 100 Acre Woods.

Then we have the Fed dropping interest rates right before the election. The Fed typically lowers interest rates is to help a weaking economy or fight off a recession. Here we have a time when the economy is growing, equity indexes are at their highs, corporate earnings are expanding, and the Fed cuts rates in what some suspect was a political move. This will be denied to high heaven of course but the suspicion will remain for their real motivation. There is just no playbook for their timing.

?

“When you are a Bear of Very Little Brain, and you Think of Things, you find sometimes that a Thing which seemed very Thingish inside you is quite different when it gets out into the open and has other people looking at it.”

?

??????????? -Winnie the Pooh

?

For investors, positioning will be critical. Bond yields, of all types, are likely to fall now and stocks, or funds with attractive dividends that are covered, would seem to be good places to put your money. Few of Wall Street’s prognosticators predicted the S&P 500 would have eclipsed 5,700 before the end of 2024. Yet, the index enters this week at 5,703 after rising 20% this year on the heels of last year’s 24% gain.

?

In my view, between the elections and the Fed, we are in a time of great uncertainty. Money should be managed with caution with yields, in either stocks or bonds, should take on more importance, at this point in time. Cash Flows will help you adjust to what comes bouncing at you as I predict that there will be more bouncing ahead, both politically and economically.

?

“I’m not lost for I know where I am. But however, where I am may be lost.”

?

???????????? -Winnie the Pooh

?

Oh, Pooh!

??????????? Mark J. Grant

??????????? Chief Global Strategist

????????? ??Colliers Securities

??????????? [email protected]

??????????? U.S. 954-999-0933