Our Wireless World vol 4
Our Wireless World just got a whole lot bigger. Yesterday the CTIA released the results of its 35th Annual Wireless Industry Survey, and boy was it ever an eye opener! In a year marking the 50th anniversary of the first ever cell phone voice call, the survey reported that voice is still a killer app. In fact, even with 5G coverage and capabilities expanding exponentially, that 1G app, voice calling, saw a record number of minutes being used by U.S. consumers actually talking on their cell phones. 2.5 trillion minutes. That’s up 5% from the record number of minutes used last year. And before you ask, 2.5 trillion minutes is 4.7 MILLION years of minutes. That’s crazy to try and get your head around, isn’t it? And while we are taking that trip down memory lane, what about the killer app that was going to displace voice forever – texting? Yep, you guessed it. That 2G application called SMS also had a record-breaking year in 2022 with 2.1 trillion text messages sent, up 6% year over year.
And what about wireless data usage? Well, not surprisingly, we saw a whopping 38% increase in wireless data traffic year over year to nearly 74 TRILLION Megabytes! A trillion is a million million. A thousand billion. So, 74 thousand billion megabytes of wireless data usage here in the U.S... And that is the 5th year in a row where we saw a record annual increase in wireless data usage by percentage. All that streaming and surfing was delivered over a massive number of wireless connections. 523 million connections to be precise. That’s 1.6 wireless connections for every person in the U.S., including those still in diapers! 162 million 5G devices, which is nearly double the number from 2021. Average data usage last year on a smartphone was 14 GB per month. What’s even more staggering is the latest Ericsson forecast predicts the average smartphone usage will grow to 58 GB per month over the next 5 years. That is 4X today’s average usage. And what about wireless home broadband usage? What will that do to wireless data growth as the MNOs all race to add home internet customers? It’s almost impossible to predict, but we better try as 90% of industry wide net broadband connections in 2022 were fixed wireless access connections, and the two fastest growing broadband companies in the country are wireless operators.
All of this growth comes at a massive cost. 2022 saw a record level of wireless network investment in the U.S., up 12% year over year to $39 Billion. On a per capita basis, that $39B is 1.9X that of South Korea, 2.7X more than Italy, and a whopping 5.2 times more than China. ?Historically, the U.S. wireless industry has invested over $675 billion in its networks. ?Does that seem crazy to you? To me it feels like the tip of the iceberg. Recent studies have shown 80-85% of all wireless data usage is not actually mobile. It’s consumed indoors! And as we deploy ‘Real 5G’ more broadly across the country Fixed Wireless Access (FWA) as a viable wired broadband alternative will drive even more record wireless data usage, wireless connections, and require more network investment than we have ever seen before.
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So, let’s think this through a bit. Massive growth with more to come as 5G everywhere becomes the new normal. Consumers and enterprises will prefer a wireless broadband connection as their primary access to the internet, as well as video and home entertainment.?85% of wireless data usage on mobile networks is consumed indoors, with a pretty sure bet that percentage will grow as a result. And Real 5G – high capacity and low latency wireless - will be delivered via mid and high-band spectrum. A few things must happen in Our Wireless World, and they need to happen fast.
·???????We need to restore auction authority to the FCC and immediately begin to make available more spectrum for wireless networks.
·???????The efficient use (and re-use) of the existing spectrum bands is forever imperative. Smaller network cells, centralized and cloud-based RAN, and software defined network capabilities will all help to drive efficient spectrum utilization.
·???????MNOs need to stretch their network investment dollars further than ever before to keep up with demand. More shared infrastructure and network elements are needed. Multi-Operator RAN and core networks should be accelerated.
·???????And finally – and yes, this is completely self-serving – we as an industry have got to bring the signal source indoors. We cannot properly serve customers choosing 5G as their primary broadband connection, using 85%+ of their wireless data while indoors, ‘from the outside in’. We need to serve those customers from the ‘inside out’. That requires more venues across all geographies and vertical markets to be equipped with a dedicated indoor 5G network. And for that, HALO Networks has you covered!
What’s your prediction for wireless data traffic in 2023? 100 trillion MBs? 120 trillion? More? Drop your number into the comments – winner gets a free fax machine ??
Thanks for the read. Until next time, keep living large in Our Wireless World.
Jim