Our power grids can handle electric mobility and the energy transition at the same time
Tobias Engelmeier
CEO of VIDA, the data software to manage climate risks, ESG and impact investments
As electric vehicles (EVs) become ever more common on roads across the world and the share of fluctuating wind and solar generation in the electricity mix keeps growing, the question arises whether our power grids will succumb to this dual challenge and if we might face power outages in the future.
The short answer is “no”. However, there needs to be concerted action to make sure the grid will be able to fully cope with the changes ahead: by becoming more flexible and more intelligent first, and then by adding some storage later.
It may come as a surprise that a gradual shift to E-mobility will not overburden our power generation capacity. According to recent studies, the additional energy demand in Germany is estimated to be just 0.3% by 2020 and 9.5% by 2040. Even if the whole world goes fully electric, there would be a less than 20% increase in electricity demand, allowing for some variation by country.
The current power grid should be able to deal with the changes up to the year 2020. However, with more and more renewables going online (many of them distributed) and ever more EVs on the roads, some investments have to be made by 2040 as the generation and usage patterns will have shifted significantly. On the demand side, there will be a further accentuated morning and evening peak, as drivers plug in EVs on fast-charging stations on their way to work as well as on coming home in the afternoon. At the same time, the midday generation peak will be more pronounced as more solar capacity is installed. These supply and demand peaks unfortunately do not overlap, which could at times overburden the existing grid.
To cope with this development, there are various strategies. First of all, the impact of EV-charging peaks could be mitigated by incentivizing drivers to charge their EVs during off-peak times with reduced rates. Additionally, the fact that most cars are parked 95% of the time would make it possible to use their batteries as grid storage and to locally supply electricity during peak times, thereby relieving grid infrastructure. To establish such an energy trading market requires a harmonization of charging technology and safety standards as well as of billing systems.
On a larger scale, transmission capacity will have to be gradually increased and made more flexible with advanced control systems to cope with the new use cases. On the local distribution level, it is estimated that current feeder systems may become overstressed once local EV penetration reaches 10-20%. Keep in mind that an EV fast-charging station with multiple outlets, each drawing up to 350kW (as the latest generation of ABB chargers can deliver), can easily require as much as 2MW. This would overload many currently installed medium-voltage transformers.
In step with the need for more transmission capacity and advanced control infrastructure, utility companies can also consider more flexible base load generating plant designs which can be ramped up quickly, if demand spikes, e.g. opting for flexible open-cycle gas turbines instead of coal-fired plants.
The concept of the Virtual Power Plant (VPP) takes flexibility a step further. It represents a centralized management of geographically separated generation, storage and consumption sites, using advanced monitoring and forecasting. For example, the German utility Stadtwerke Trier has deployed a VPP to ensure all EVs in the city are charged only with renewable energy.
In conclusion, if grid planning is done with the growing EV and renewable energy market shares in mind, and meaningful effort is made towards battery storage and smart charging systems, power grids can be made ready for the future without insurmountable financial expenses.
Consultant at Blume Consulting
6 年So, in summary, the answer is “no, they can’t”. Might have been better to have come at this from the POV of the challenges and limitations than a wish list of optimistic outcomes. Electricity grids, inputs and outputs would need serious overhaul and coordination for efficiency with any massive shift to electrification. Fortunately, we will have much more time than the pundits and politicians imagine, notwithstanding their optimistic forecasts and legislation, good old market forces will slow demand for EVs even as OEMs reduce costs, because taxes will replace incentives, and investments will need to be recovered by electricity pricing. Once these false economies are reversed, the only thing left in favor of EVs will be their ‘green-ness’, and even that’s questionable when we examine battery manufacture and disposal and electricity generation alternatives. Not saying an EV future isn’t going to happen, it will, and it will probably be a better thing than IC, just, let’s get real, please, it’s a better place to start solving the problems.
Technical Project Manager - Solar PV & Energy Monitoring
6 年Great article! although several researchers have investigated smart charging with V2G capabilities and its smoothing/positive effect over local distribution grid constraints, there are very few studies on user acceptance of the concept. Some studies also show that beyond monetary incentives, it is important to communicate the benefits of it to users (such as grid stability and integration of RE sources). Further research on cost-benefit analysis of V2G services and incentives with respect to battery degradation is needed. It is also important to do research on design and cost optimization developments of current charging technology with consideration of future need of charging infrastructure and its impacts on urban infrastructure.
PM / Project Engineer....... Open availability for new assignments
6 年There seems to be many missing pieces of information of how this will occur. The grid at present is working overtime to supply the current needed to power static devices now. Also I am quite skeptical that the current grid could handle the added power needed (in lieu of the power density supplied by current gasoline and diesel. Run some number and see. I hear many saying solar, wind and other sources will do this. Meanwhile back at reality these static locations have to be pugged into a grid and the voltage and current regulated. If everyone simply plugs and connects to a "grid" who takes care of the grid, make that big grid. Here is another thing to think about, electrical devices are designed to run on a certain currently, phase, and voltage. IF the supply is not at specification or there are draws on the system your refrigerator ( you know that cheap one yo picked up) or that high SEER rated air-conditioning system, may not like the low current. Meanwhile everyone is convened about charging these vehicles at night, or at the office because they forgot to charge the night before. It would be neat if the many car companies designing thees vehicles would interact with who this is supposed to happen. Meanwhile countries are simply disconnecting power sources they have......now. Sorry Tobias, not buying it. Perhaps a bicycle or a horse.