Our Expert Answers Difficult Questions on Defence Policy

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In this edition, Senior Policy Advisor Daniel Sleat responds to questions our experts are often asked on defence strategy as part of our policy paper Reimagining Defence and Security: New Capabilities for New Challenges .

Can you summarise your thinking on defence in one sentence??

A different geopolitical context that is more dangerous and more complex has emerged. New technologies are transforming warfare – changing both how armies fight and the tools they need to do so. This requires a fundamentally different approach to defence than the one we’ve had in the past. Without an urgent rethink on defence strategy countries risk falling behind in an era of profound change.?

Modern conflicts show that drones are better than tanks.

This is a really important point to think through and be clear about. The wrong analysis of how warfare is changing will lead to the wrong strategy.

The lessons from what is happening in Ukraine and on battlefields around the world, in my view, aren’t that new technologies are emerging completely at the expense of old technologies. They’re that the mix of capabilities you need is changing.

In combat in recent years, particularly in Ukraine, we’ve seen the enduring importance of ground soldiers, of tanks, of armoured vehicles. So – while technologies such as drones are fundamentally changing warfare – soldiers, for example, are still vital for holding and taking territory.?

Enough of the United Kingdom’s GDP is already spent on defence.

For me it is a mistake if we get too much into the question of the specific GDP figure. While 2.5 per cent is great, the bigger question is not what percentage of GDP we’re spending on defence, but what mix of technologies and capabilities we’re investing in. We could spend more than 2.5 per cent and spend it badly. We could spend less and spend it more effectively. It all comes back to a proper strategy for the future of defence, one based on the capabilities we need and the best way to fit them alongside allies to create effective collective capabilities.

What are some of your ideas on the future of defence?

The central idea is why we need to take the future of defence so seriously. We’re currently experiencing the highest number of conflicts per year since the second world war. In a more complex, multipolar, geopolitical context, the risk of conflict is higher and increasing. That tells me that we need to be much better prepared for conflict if we want to avoid it. So, this stream of work, this thesis around the need to rethink the future of defence, is one we must tackle head on to maintain our own security as well as contribute to global peace.?

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Hacking is now the only frontier that matters.?

Cyber warfare is becoming more and more important. It is changing how we defend ourselves globally and how we defend ourselves as a nation. That has to form part of the right mix of capabilities that we have as a country. It is right that cyber capabilities are receiving a lot of focus, but we cannot lose sight of the wider context of how warfare is evolving. Yes, new technologies and technological threats are changing warfare, but they aren’t replacing the need for more traditional capabilities. Cyber is an important frontier but not the only one.?

Space should be left out of geopolitics.?

While that may be preferable, given how complex events are on Earth, unfortunately the reality is that geopolitics is already playing out in space. It is an area we do have to address and address more carefully than we have been. There are multiple areas of space and defence that need to be thought through more carefully: that includes satellite coverage, access to satellites and other military capabilities that are being discussed in the realm of space. But in a sense, we should not see space as separate from events within our atmosphere; it is merely an extension of the geopolitical trends we are seeing unfold in our day-to-day lives: multipolarity and increasing interstate tensions, for example. So the right strategy on space links to the right one on Earth and that is about having the right mixture of capabilities and working effectively with partners.?

How can you have allies when geopolitics is so divided?

Geopolitics has changed quite fundamentally in recent years and therefore so has the nature of alliances. The world is increasingly fragmented into a geopolitical north and south, with middle powers fluctuating between the two. Multilateral bodies are struggling to keep up with these changes, and alliances such as NATO, for example, are having to refocus and retool.?

For alliances now it is not just about having lists of countries that we have as allies, but what do those alliances mean? What capabilities do we have in defence? What capabilities do our allies have? How does that map together to become more than the sum of its parts? I think those are the fundamental questions for alliances. In an era where only really the United States and China can seek to project themselves on a global level militarily, every other country will have to depend on the right allies and alliances.?

The UK has been too slow to procure new defence technologies.?

As I’ve set out, in recent years warfare has changed in a very fundamental way. We’ve seen this in Ukraine, we’ve seen this elsewhere in the world, with the role of drones and new technologies on the battlefield. Importantly though, these new technologies are not simply emerging in a static way, they continue to evolve at speed. This requires new, more dynamic ways to procure these capabilities, working more closely, and earlier, with the private sector. In our report Reimagining Defence and Security: New Capabilities for New Challenges we outline recommendations for how we think this can be done by government.?

The UK is not ready for conflict.?

That is quite a big statement and I don’t think I would put it in quite those categorical terms. I think it probably depends on the type of conflict. But, in a general sense, I think I would say we’re probably not ready for a conflict of any significant size. ?

In a world where the US and China are spending more on defence than the next 38 countries combined, the UK doesn’t have the capability to equip and defend itself on its own, unless it is a very limited conflict in certain parts of the world. The question we have to ask, therefore, is where do we have particular strengths in our defence capabilities? How can we invest more in those defence capabilities to have an advantage? And how do we align those capabilities with those of our allies to add up to more than the sum of its parts? The future of the UK’s defence will rest on having the right focus, the right strategy and the right interconnection with its allies. That will mean being more prepared, with our partners, for various kinds of conflict, in varied parts of the world.?

Daniel Sleat provides strategic insights on geopolitics, focusing on Europe and global trends. He spearheaded TBI’s Covid-19 and Ukraine crisis responses, and he led a team of researchers dedicated to driving the renewal of progressive politics around the world. Alongside our executive chairman, he has collaborated with various client countries, including a project on deep constitutional reform.

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