Our blindness to the four-fold water crisis cannot continue

I cannot think of a better topic for this month’s 120 months article than water, as it connects the conversations that took place at the biodiversity COP 16 in Cali with the upcoming COP 29 on climate in Baku (my take on both will follow in December). The connection goes deeper: it is through leaving our climate comfort zone – the relative stabile temperature band of the Holocene – and through continued land-use change that humanity disturbs the global water cycles in significant ways.

Until this year, few of us would have thought to put the words “Dubai” and “flooding” in the same sentence. But then, in April, Dubai International Airport was deluged with 1.5 times its annual rainfall in just 24 hours; images in the city itself showed commuters wading through metro stations, cars submerged, and rivers rushing through shopping centres. Dubai’s neighbouring emirate of Abu Dhabi was similarly inundated. The scale of the flooding in a normally arid environment was so intense, and so unexpected, that rumours swirled that cloud-seeding had sparked the catastrophe (conspiracy theorists also wanted to make us believe the two most recent hurricanes in the United States were the result of such activities). While these were swiftly debunked, it is certain that humans had contributed to the catastrophic force of the April storms – through human-made climate change. The most recent flooding in Spain , where a full year’s worth of rainfall hammered down in less than a day, caused severe damage, and killed more than a hundred and fifty people. It serves as another horrific example for what life outside the climate comfort zone will look like – and 2024 is well on track to become the hottest year on record.

The link between water and climate (and by extension, between the water and climate crises) is inseverable: the water cycle is driven by climate processes, including evaporation, transpiration, condensation, and precipitation. Climatic changes like higher global temperatures can alter the intensity, frequency and distribution of these processes, affecting ecosystems, water availability and food security.

This means we experience the effects of climate change through water, be it through increased drought and flooding, or higher humidity, or warming and rising oceans, or increasingly oxygen-depleted, algae-ridden rivers. Meanwhile, water pollution compounds the effects of climate change (as well as wreaking additional damage on the health of humans and ecosystems).

This manifests in a crisis of four water extremes: too hot, too little, too much or too dirty. How can we confront these four facets head-on?

“Too hot” is a perfect storm: the climate and water crises combined

Our planet's water bodies are as susceptible to global heating as any other ecosystem. Oceans, for instance, have warmed by nearly 0.7 degrees Celsius over the last century, with far-reaching consequences. One of the most well-known of these is the accelerating ferocity of coral reef bleaching, which strips these fragile ecosystems of life and thus damages marine diversity. Less discussed is the effect of warmer oceans on phytoplankton, the microscopic animals that form the foundation of the marine food web. Reduced phytoplankton abundance impacts the entire food chain and lowers their ability to absorb carbon dioxide during photosynthesis. A decline in phytoplankton populations could therefore impair the ocean's ability to act as a carbon sink, exacerbating global warming. And even less publicized is how warmer ocean temperatures contribute to a potential slowdown or even collapse of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), a giant “conveyor belt” of ocean currents that plays a crucial role in regulating the planet’s temperature and weather patterns. A disruption to the AMOC could result in changed weather patterns, more extreme weather events, and altered precipitation distribution, all of which could have devastating effects (including on global food security). The changes would be dramatic, which is why I am worried about the growing body of science that no longer attributes only a very low probability to such a collapse.

Warmer rivers and lakes not only threaten the health of fish and amphibians (to the detriment of biodiversity and food chains), but jeopardize energy security, too. Several significant methods of energy production (thermoelectric power plants, which generate 65% of the U.S.’s electricity , as well as nuclear power) are dependent on rivers for cooling, and power plants’ ability to function is thus greatly impaired by higher water temperatures, increasing the likelihood of temporary plant shutdowns and even blackouts. While I am hopeful for renewables replacing some of these globally, the immense needs of A.I. for both electricity and water for cooling may exacerbate this challenge in many locations.

To address water that is “too hot” our foremost solution must be decarbonization. On the one hand that means reducing – with the end goal of stopping – our greenhouse gas emissions, and on the other it means taking that carbon out of the atmosphere.

We know how to do this: governments, particularly of the countries with the highest emissions must both sign up to and respect the terms of the many treaties and frameworks aiming to foster decarbonization. Companies must take responsibility for reducing scope 1, 2 and 3 emissions. And, while the IPCC has previously stressed that the burden of solving climate change cannot be borne on the shoulders of individuals, some consumers can contribute by making more carbon-conscious lifestyle choices. Even if we live up to reduction commitments made to date, the latest UNEP prediction forecasts that we could be on track to temperature increases of more than twice the 1.5 degree Celsius target agreed in Paris, underscoring what could be ahead. The Amazon Biome would not be able to survive such a scenario.

Let’s give nature a chance in tackling “too much”

“Too much” water has dominated recent headlines. April drenched swathes of the Middle East. In September , northwest and north-central Africa, Central Europe, France, Spain, the Philippines, southern Brazil and northern Vietnam were all hit by catastrophic flooding. The southeastern U.S. was inundated following two colossal hurricanes in as many weeks in early October. And 2024 is by no means an outlier. Over the past few years, “once in a century flooding” first became cliché, then redundant: Germany’s Ahr Valley was inundated by “once in a century flooding” twice in five years, with the second such disaster, in 2021, causing so much damage that it was dubbed a “once in a millennium ” event. In 2022, a third of Pakistan disappeared under water, wiping out farmland and killing more than a thousand people. In 2023, some rural areas in Italy vacillated between drought and torrential rains, leaving them helpless in the face of flooding that triggered landslides and forced 13,000 evacuations. In short: flooding is becoming simultaneously more frequent and more dangerous : even after the immediate dangers of inundation have subsided, flooding wipes out crops, vastly accelerates the spread of infectious diseases, and racks up a bill that runs into the billions. While we cannot put a price on the human cost of such disasters, the financial costs of dealing with them are in the same order of magnitude as government programs like the U.S. “Inflation Reduction Act” designed to entice a green transition. More and more properties will become uninsurable. Catastrophic flooding is no longer a “once in a century” event – it is the new normal, to which we must adapt or face the consequences.

Natural resources can be our most powerful allies in combating the risks of flooding – particularly wetlands.

Until recently, wetlands (a term encompassing mangroves, marshes, bogs, swamps and peatlands) have been an afterthought in environmental policy. And this shows: the world lost 35 per cent of its wetlands between 1970 and 2015. This must be addressed urgently – not just because wetlands are home to 40 per cent of biodiversity worldwide, but because they are a powerful tool in building flood resilience. Mangroves and coastal wetlands reduce “surge heights” during hurricanes and storms, significantly reducing the scale and associated costs of flood damage. All wetlands act as sponges during floods: following the recent and devastating Hurricane Helene, storm and building experts believe North Carolina would likely have seen far less damage had it not previously weakened state protections for wetlands and increased the risk of dangerous storm water runoff. Conversely, wetlands also boost drought resilience by storing water, recharging groundwater, and regulating flows during drier spells.

Crucial to protecting these vital habitats and building up natural resilience to the water-related effects of climate change is the practice of restoring more, while using less. This means incorporating natural elements into urban areas (“rain gardens” and human-made marshes in cities, for example), promoting brownfield (as opposed to greenfield) development through regulatory and financial incentives, and reducing agricultural land-use change. The latter requires us to embrace technologies and methods like New Genomic Techniques and regenerative agriculture that enable farmers to grow more on a smaller land mass. And for this, we need policy that supports such innovations, as well as contributions from companies in the form of initiatives like Bayer’s Pro Carbono program, or the LEAF Coalition , an uncommon collaboration between local communities, governments, NGOs and businesses, in which we participate.

Producing more with less to address “too little”

“Too little” water sits on the other end of the spectrum – but its impacts are just as devastating. Over 1.4 million people have been displaced by drought in Somalia alone, after five consecutive rainy seasons have failed, scorching crops in the fields and forcing people from their homes. Southern Africa was hit by a significant drought this year wiping out harvests and contributing to even higher food insecurity. What makes this worse is that smallholding communities struggling to ensure a reliable income under unreliable weather conditions can’t rely on crop insurance programs which are a staple for their counterparts in more well-off countries. Meanwhile, southwestern North America remains in the grip of a “megadrought ” – defined as a drought lasting two decades or longer – with severe consequences for the region’s farmers and economy.

Even historically water-rich regions have been dried out in recent years: the Amazon river has run dry in some areas following the worst drought on record – a harbinger of what is to come if global temperatures increase well above 2.5 degrees Celsius. Losing this biome – and other nature-based carbon sinks like oceans and wetlands or reflective ice shields – in turn significantly weakens the natural buffer against warming, thus accelerating the cycle of destruction.

“Too little” is an existential threat to both people and planet: it degrades habitats, threatens agricultural productivity, compromises access to clean drinking water and sanitation, undermines the economic stability of water-heavy industries such as manufacturing and energy production, robs millions of children (mostly girls) of an education, and exacerbates social tensions and conflicts over resource allocation. Conversely, solving “too little” would be an unprecedented boon for human and economic development.

And when it comes to water scarcity, “solving” means “adapting”. This means rethinking our approach to sourcing water, treating and reusing wastewater using innovative technologies, and implementing better water management policies and governance frameworks. Crucially, given that agriculture consumes 70% of the world’s freshwater resources, it also means changing the way we produce food. Agricultural adaptation measures must improve the resilience of crops and farming practices to drought, heat, and other climate-related stresses.

That’s why Bayer has made its ambitious water commitments : driving positive change in water productivity in water-scarce regional cropping systems. This starts with rice, which is responsible for up to 43% of the world’s irrigation water withdrawals. Using advanced breeding techniques and biotechnology we have developed our direct-seeded rice , a gene-edited crop that can use water more efficiently, helping farmers achieve stable yields even during drought conditions. Meanwhile, we also support the adoption of efficient irrigation practices by providing farmers with access to innovative irrigation technologies and solutions. Our FieldView precision agriculture tool, for instance, helps farmers monitor soil moisture levels and apply water and crop protection products more effectively, reducing waste and improving crop yields. In addition, through our ForwardFarming initiative, we demonstrate how farmers can implement innovative agriculture tools and practices to their own and to the planet’s benefit. We also aim to incorporate water quality and quantity into business decisions, for instance by evaluating all investments above EUR 10 million based on their environmental impact (criteria include proximity to water-scarce regions or flood risk areas, as well as water consumption). At our own sites, we carry out water checks with detailed flow analyses, monitoring for drought and flood risks, water management systems for sites in water scarce areas, and assessment of PNECs. In partnership with a leading consulting team, we even tried to develop a methodology for more accurately pricing water risks at sites – and while this attempt was unsuccessful, we will continue to implement and drive initiatives that value and protect water.

Healthy soils, cleaner waters

The final quadrant in the water crisis framework is “too dirty”. Water pollution, driven by industrial discharge, agricultural runoff, improper waste disposal, and urbanization, poses a grave threat to ecosystems and human health. Over the past few years, there has been public outrage in several European countries (particularly the UK and Ireland ) following revelations that water companies have dumped untreated sewage directly into waterways, carrying a cocktail of pollutants into rivers, lakes, and oceans.

Industrial activities release harmful chemicals and heavy metals into water bodies, while agricultural runoff leads to nutrient pollution and harmful algal blooms. At Bayer, we are working on increasing traditional fertilizer efficiency, as well as developing run-off-reducing cover crops and biological methods to reduce farmer’s dependency on expensive artificial fertilizers. My hope is, in a few months, when the data of this year’s field trials has been analysed, to report on breakthroughs in this space.

The effects of water pollution are far-reaching: aquatic life suffers from habitat destruction and toxic exposure, leading to biodiversity loss; humans face increased health risks from contaminated drinking water and seafood; and entire communities endure economic setbacks as fisheries collapse and tourism declines.

Robust and innovative public wastewater systems are pivotal in reducing water pollution. Exemplary models like Singapore's NEWater initiative showcase the transformative potential of advanced wastewater management. By employing cutting-edge technologies such as microfiltration, reverse osmosis, and ultraviolet disinfection, Singapore converts wastewater into high-quality potable water, significantly reducing the discharge of pollutants into natural water bodies. This not only ensures a sustainable water supply but also protects aquatic ecosystems from contamination.

We also need to help restore nature's very own filter – soil. Soil can not only enhance water retention and reduce runoff and erosion, but also improve water quality by filtering out pollutants. However, there is a big caveat: soils must be healthy – porous, teeming with microorganisms, and rich in organic matter – in order to properly fulfil these functions.

Farming can contribute enormously to promoting soil health, primarily through the large-scale roll-out of regenerative agricultural practices like crop rotation, cover crops and no- or low-till. These can all restore nutrient diversity, preserve soil structure, and rejuvenate soil health. The data from our interviews with farmers and from our pilot programs across Europe show that regenerative agricultural methods promise a multitude of benefits.

Policymakers should incentivize and reward such practices, while other agricultural players must support farmers in safeguarding our soils. At Bayer, we do this by empowering farmers to switch to regenerative methods, implementing product stewardship efforts to ensure proper and ecologically sensitive use and disposal of crop protection products. We are also constantly developing innovative solutions like CropKey , which helps farmers unlock pest control approaches in a targeted way, achieving “more crop per drop” and reducing their impact on soils and waterways, while still ensuring healthy crop yields.

Crucially, these methods help address pollutants before they enter water bodies, significantly reducing the burden on wastewater treatment facilities and preventing harmful substances from disrupting aquatic life. Other proactive measures, such as strictly regulating industrial discharges (and holding violators to account), imposing binding caps on the production of plastics, and incentivizing industries to adopt cleaner production methods, can further curtail water pollution at the source.

Water is everything – and action is non-negotiable

As my friend Mina Guli (the ultra-runner and water advocate) has discovered over her many years of campaigning for water, it is all too tempting to be “water blind”: to close our eyes to the four-cornered water crisis of too hot, too little, too much or too dirty. But the water crisis is not just a distant problem for someone else to solve: food and energy production, industry, peace, our very existence – none of this is secure without H2O.

However, I believe that it is increasingly impossible for anyone to remain oblivious to the water crisis. Scroll for a few seconds down the web page of any big news outlet and you are likely to find a headline on drought or flooding, on the victims who have lost their lives or their homes. And financially, the rising cadence of water-related weather events is increasingly tangible for consumers: hiked insurance costs in wildfire - and flood -prone areas, plummeting house values due to heightened hurricane risks, rising food costs from drought or torrential rain affecting crop yields, and higher water bills in water-scarce regions.

These impacts are frightening and often tragic. But I hope that they will at least force us – individuals, companies, politicians – to open our eyes to the scale of the water crisis and take the action that is so urgently needed.