Our Biggest Takeaways and Memories from 14 Months of Modeling the COVID-19 Pandemic

On May 19, we published the final weekly update to PolicyLab’s county-level COVID-19 forecasting model, COVID-Lab. It has been an honor to work with such a talented, interdisciplinary team on this project, which we hope has helped policymakers, public health professionals, school leaders and communities, and families navigate through the tremendous challenges of the past 14 months.

The team behind COVID-Lab is one of the hardest working I have ever had the pleasure of collaborating with—they were consistently motivated to put out the best data possible, working long hours on top of their other projects because they believed in the work we were doing. Even now, with the end to our weekly projections, we plan to return periodically and may resume some more frequent modeling updates in the fall and winter, should risk return to regions across the United States.

I am so thankful for the expertise, commitment, and guidance from this team, and I wanted to magnify their own experiences from this journey. Below are just some of the voices and memories behind COVID-Lab.

What stands out to you as the most memorable moment of COVID-Lab?

Xi Wang, PhD (Research Scientist): “It was a surprising moment for me when I saw a report about the COVID-Lab project printed on our small town’s local newspaper ‘The Swarthmorean,’ a popular read in our neighborhood that covers our day-to-day community life. Although it was always super exciting to see Dave taking about this study on those large influential national media like CNN and The Washington Post, the coverage on our small-town newspaper made me feel even prouder of our work. It showed me how COVID-Lab influenced not only the decision making of stakeholders at state or county levels, but also the daily life of every person including my dear neighbors.”

Brian Fisher, DO, MSCE (Infectious Disease Faculty): “In the spring of 2020, while many of us were scrambling to adjust to many rapid changes, [Dave] asked me to join daily modeling team meetings. I knew we had skilled individuals in various disciplines at CHOP who could help guide the public through the pandemic, but at a macro level everything was so scattered at the time. I agreed to join the calls not knowing what I was getting myself into. The task seemed insurmountable but seeing the eager faces for the first time on that webinar, I was overwhelmed by the number of individuals willing to commit significant effort above and beyond everything else they were being asked to do.”

Lauren Walens (Strategic Operations & Communications Director): “The most memorable experience I had with COVID-Lab was one night in early August 2020 when three major news networks featured the model during their primetime broadcasts. Modeling team experts were on CNN, CBS and NBC—all within the same hour of nightly news. Hearing PolicyLab’s name said across those three stations and knowing how many individuals would be introduced to the amazing work our center does was a career-defining moment for me!”

Zi Wang, MS (Research Assistant): “I remembered once that Dr. Jing Huang needed to join a call with the White House and I was asked to run the models within 30 mins to provide results for her talk. It was a specific moment that really highlighted to me the impact our work had on public health. I consider myself fortunate to have the opportunity to be a part of the COVID-Lab research team.”

Lihai Song, MS (Statistical Scientist): “I still remember the moment that [COVID-Lab] crashed due to high volume of visiting. I have never thought so many people were relying on our website for COVID-19 information and mitigation guidance! I’m so proud of our COVID response team, who were making impactful contributions to fight the pandemic.”

What is one thing you will take away from this experience?

Jing Huang, PhD (Lead Biostatistician): “The Chinese philosopher Mencius once said ‘right time, right place, right people’ 天时地利人和. From the experience with COVID-Lab, I learned that a powerful research team is the key to tackle difficult questions effectively and quickly, and the key of such a team is the synergized members with diverse experiences and skills, including substance-related knowledge, quantitative skills, advocacy and leadership.”

Laura Cavello (Communications Manager): “Data-driven information and guidance can help weather the storm. While my role with COVID-Lab was to communicate the latest projections to reporters across the country each week, I also looked to the model and our research team’s regular blog posts for updates in order to inform activities and precautions for my own family. Through all the ups and downs of the last year, it was reassuring to work with a team that was so thoughtful in presenting an evidence-based look at the realities of the pandemic, urging caution when necessary, and offering a path forward when safe.”

Jeffrey Morris, PhD (Biostatistics): “This was no small task, and took a high level of expertise, coordination, and leadership, and it has been insightful for me to see how this was done. In scientific research, many times the key deliverables are viewed as peer-reviewed papers and grants, which of course are important, but these are not sufficient for societal impact. It takes a great deal more effort to build and disseminate tools and results that are timely and relevant, but this effort pays off with the opportunity to shape policy and inform the public, as exemplified by the COVID-Lab efforts.”

Vicky Tam, MA (Geographer and Data Visualization): “The biggest take away from this experience would be the power of data. Our forecasting models and dashboards would not be what it is if not for the data that was made available to us. We were able to access granular, near real time mobility and COVID data through innovative data pipelines that were built and shared in record time by researchers, private sector, and all levels of government. This collaborative environment and the community that has grown in response to this pandemic has been incredible.”