Our 2024 F1 Predictions (Post-Testing)

Another year, another season, another championship.

As we inch closer to lights out in Bahrain, the feeling of excitement for the first race of the season never gets old, as there is always a sense of unpredictability and excitement to see who will top the timing board in qualifying. With testing done and dusted, it’s time to go racing at long last!

That said, we will continue the tradition of rounding up our predictions for the upcoming season on Race Recap. This year, I have the honour of trying (and probably failing miserably) to predict the 2024 Constructors’ Championship and share my thoughts on what I expect from each team heading into the season.?

On the other hand, Jonathan and Nathan will be rounding the top 10 events that would likely happen this season on Race Pod (keep your eyes peeled as that episode drops next week!)

(All image credits go to Formula One)?

1st: Red Bull Racing & Red Bull Technology (Last season: 1st)?

Red Bull would be entering this season with a renowned determination to protect their most prized possession: the Constructor's Championship. Last year, they finished the season strong with 21 out of 22 wins to their name. Now, the expectations will be high for the Milton Keynes-based team to replicate the performance of the RB19.

Heading into 2024, let's not forget what happened last season:

?? Max Verstappen won 19 races — the most wins in a single season.

?? Max Verstappen has also led the most laps — 1003.

?? Red Bull secured their first-ever 1-2 in the Constructors' Championship.

If that's not enough to convince that Red Bull is in a league of their own, reports have emerged that the 2024 RB20 F1 car is at least six months old. Consequently, the team has redirected its focus to developing the 2025 RB21 model.

With no major shakeup to the driver lineup at Red Bull in 2024, we expect things will largely play out the same way.? And if the testing times were to go by, expect Red Bull to dominate the field once again.

2nd: Mercedes-AMG PETRONAS Formula One Team (Last season: 2nd)

The W14 project was an absolute disaster — so much so that Team Principal Toto Wolff said the W14 “doesn’t deserve to win a race”.

The W14 is the only Mercedes car that failed to win any race since 2011’s MGP W02. Most of the time, Hamilton and Russell were not battling for positions on the track, but fighting against their own racecraft. Plus, the occasional slow pit stops and the recurring strategy blunders didn’t help either.

All hope is not lost, however. Mercedes has one of the best driving pairings in the grid with 7-time World Champion Lewis Hamilton and George Russell. Although there were moments of tension between the two last season, the pair remained on good terms with one another. Hamilton would be eager to finish his last season with Mercedes on high notes.

According to Crash.net, the W15 wouldn’t have a design link with the troublesome W13 and W14 cars. The team has also been investing in new pit stop equipment to improve this area, which has been a significant weakness. The competitive testing times show that Russell and Hamilton found the W15 more balanced compared to its predecessors.

Only time will tell if Mercedes will return to the top. But now, predicting they’ll finish as runner-up is a safe bet due to their tendency to perform stronger in the later races.

3rd: McLaren Racing (Last season: 4th)

Despite having a disastrous start last season, the Woking-based outfit quickly found their footing as the season progressed.

Looking back, let's remember McLaren's turnaround last season:

?? Plenty of podium finishes

?? Lando Norris often looked to be the second-fastest driver

?? Rookie Oscar Piastri got his first Sprint victory in Qatar

?? The fastest pit stop ever — 1.80 seconds

They have the facilities, a great driver pairing with Norris and Piastri at the helm, and a car —? which will be the evolution to the strong MCL60 from last season. With a new lineup with their technical staff and wind tunnel, let's hope they have a strong start to 2024.

4th: Scuderia Ferrari (Last season: 3rd)

If you've been watching F1 for a while now, you know why it's normal to manage our expectations for Ferrari.?

While they were the only team to topple Red Bull's winning streak and came very close to securing P2 in the constructors', it wasn't a clean season. Looking back, there were:

? Inconsistent performance.

? Strategy errors.

? 2 DNS (Did not start)

As such, there's some hope for the Tifosi as SF-24 will be 95% different compared to the underperforming SF-23.

That's not all. Reports show I?aki Rueda has left the Prancing Horse ahead of the 2024 season. The Spaniard has often come under fire from the Tifosi due to costly strategy errors during his tenure — which means the Tifosi can breathe a sigh of relief. In the off-season, Ferrari were also quick to secure the service of Lewis Hamilton to Maranello — a move that shook the sporting world.

5th: Alpine (Last season: 6th)

Alpine’s long-time limbo between contending for podiums or staying in midfield continued last season.

The All-French lineup of Gasly and Ocon performed terribly last season, leading to many heated moments on the track. The pair has been known for their long-time feud, which carried over onto their Alpine seat.

On top of this, the team suffered from many strategic and operational errors along with reliability issues that put the team out of contention to challenge their rivals at the front.?

Midway through last season, Alpine became the talk of the grid after securing many high-profile celebrities invested in the Enstone-based team, such as Ryan Reynolds and Rob McElhenney.

All eyes will be on Alpine and how they fare with the investments made by the celebrities and the gains they’ve made throughout the winter. 2024 will be the make-or-break year for them, and if they can get their act together, I expect them to challenge Aston Martin for the upper midfield positions.

6th: Aston Martin F1 Team (Last season: 5th)

Is La misión still going strong?

Last season, Aston Martin became the talk of the grid due to its remarkable pace, often becoming the second-fastest car with Fernando Alonso at the wheel ahead of the likes of Ferrari and Mercedes. Before the summer break, the Spaniard already had six podiums to his name.

Since McLaren introduced their major upgrades in Austria, however, Aston Martin has lagged in developments.

But there’s also something else that is concerning — Lance Stroll’s lack of podiums. In a car that was the second fastest in the early parts of the season, you would expect the Canadian to get a podium at least once in 2023.?

There’s a light at the end of the tunnel, though, as Aston Martin’s wind tunnel facility is set to be completed at the end of 2024 following the opening of the AMR Technology Campus in July 2023.

For 2024, I expect Aston Martin to challenge Alpine for the upper midfield positions.

7th: Williams Racing (Last season: 7th)

Will we see Williams rise to the occasion?

I am still surprised how James Vowles brought the Grove-based outfit to a respectable seventh-place finish in the Constructors' Championship — their best finish since 2017, where they finished fifth.

Beyond this, during an interview with Motorsport.com, Vowles admits that the facilities in Williams are at least 20 years out of date. However, their strong finish during the 2023 season shows that the team is still passionate about racing despite lagging behind its rivals in terms of modernity.

Alex Albon's impressive performance is nothing short of amazing, as he often finds his way to contend for the top 10 spots and eventually finish the season with 27 points.

On the other hand, Logan Sargeant — his rookie teammate — became the first American to score points in 30 years, and what better way to achieve such a feat on your own home turf? Despite comparing unfavourably to Albon's points, Williams trusts Sargeant to continue racing for them as they have great confidence in his skills.

It will be exciting to see how Williams will perform this season. Hopefully, more points will come!

8th: Visa Cash App RB F1 Team (Last season: 8th)

Formerly known as AlphaTauri, the Faenza outfit has undergone several changes for the upcoming season.?

Laurent Mekies, formerly the Sporting director at Ferrari, has moved from Maranello back to his former team to succeed one of F1's longest-serving team bosses, Franz Tost.?

In V-CARB, there will be a new name which comes along with new sponsors. Its ties to Red Bull should bring about new technical developments with their 2024 challenger, putting them within striking distance of their rival, Williams. We've seen this in the latter part of 2023 when they introduced new upgrades inspired by the RB19, Red Bull's 2023 championship-winning challenger.

Both Yuki Tsunoda and Daniel Ricciardo are experienced racing drivers who have raced with the Faenza-based team in the past. With both drivers consistently scoring points, there's no reason not to see them get into the mix with the other midfield teams.

9th: Stake F1 Team Kick Sauber (Last season: 9th)

Is it Kick? Is it Stake? No matter the name, we're still calling it Sauber.

The partnership of Valtteri Bottas and Zhou Guanyu continued last season for a second year in a row but to a disappointing result. Coincidentally, 2023 was Alfa Romeo's last season with the team.

The Swiss-based team kicked off the season by scoring points and achieving the fastest lap in Bahrain. However, things turned worse shortly after. Bottas would only score points three more times in Canada, Italy, and Qatar. Zhou would only score points three times in Australia, Spain, and Qatar — leaving the team stranded in ninth place in the constructors'.

While neither driver is inherently bad per se, it doesn't look like they have enough in the bank to challenge the teams ahead.?

10th: MoneyGram Haas F1 Team (Last season: 10th)

Haas, the only American-licensed team in the grid, enters 2024 with a recurring problem they have yet to address — how they somehow managed to become worse each year.

Despite enjoying a strong start in F1, they declined rapidly after a season-best fifth in 2018. Their lowest point was in 2021 when they failed to score any points that season.

After the conclusion of the 2023 season, founder Gene Haas had enough of the “embarrassing form” and got rid of long-time (and fan-favourite) Team Principal Guenther Steiner and promoted Ayao Komatsu, the team’s trackside engineering director, to fill the void posed by Steiner’s departure. Elsewhere, Technical Director Simone Resta also departed the team not long after.?

According to The Race, Haas F1 failed to make significant strides due to Gene Haas’ apparent apathetic behaviour and his reluctance to invest more than what it already has. This is a serious problem, as in F1, you could never have too much of an investment, especially if you are a team like Haas F1. Haas also reportedly rejected the very same consortium that eventually went to Alpine.

Placing Ayao Komatsu as the team principal also raises eyebrows since he was part of the same team that failed to understand why the VF cars are always underperforming.

As much as I love a good underdog story, there are serious doubts as to how Haas can challenge any of the teams at the front of the grid.

So, should we be looking at the times during pre-season testing?

Yes and no. Most teams will put their 2024 challengers through a range of tests so that they can identify the limitations of their cars, hence why testing doesn't reflect the true performance of these cars. What the times do show us is some slight indication of the pecking order when the lights go out during the Bahrain GP, which starts this Saturday instead of Sunday.

Judging from what we have seen so far from testing, it looks like Red Bull has undoubtedly nailed its new aerodynamic concept, which Mercedes abandoned shortly after the new regulations. Reports suggest that Red Bull was running their cars on low engine modes, and Max Verstappen reportedly indicated that the RB20 reacts better to his driving impulses than the RB19.??

Fernando Alonso has also suggested that it looks like Red Bull will continue to dominate this season, suggesting that 19 out of the 20 drivers on the current grid now know that they won't be able to win a championship this year.?

What team are you rooting for heading into the season?

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This newsletter was written by Ghazlan Atqiya Firmansyah and edited by Hew Hoong Liang (Nathan) .

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1. Guide to F1: 2024 Edition (What is changing?)
2. Our F1 2023 Predictions (post-testing)